College Football Betting Preview: A Look at Colorado-Nebraska

Colorado Buffaloes at Nebraska Cornhuskers, Memorial Stadium, Lincoln, NE
Friday, November 26, 2010, 3:30 pm Eastern: TV: ABC
Opening Line: Nebraska -20
Current Line: Nebraska -16 1/2
Opening Total: 49 1/2
Current Total: 49 1/2
Money Line: Nebraska -700 / Colorado +500

Nebraska is a 16 1/2 point home favorite over arch-rival Colorado in the Big 12 conference finale for both teams.

The 5-6 Colorado Buffaloes travel to Lincoln to take on the arch-rival 9-2 Nebraska Cornhuskers for the last time as conference rivals. Colorado moves to the Pac-10 next year and Nebraska moves to the Big 10. This game is crucial for both teams. Colorado needs to win to become bowl eligible, and Nebraska needs to win to clinch a spot in the Big 12 Championship game. Nebraska is coming off a controversial 9-6 loss at Texas A&M last week. The Cornhuskers were penalized for 145 yards to Texas A&M’s 10 yards. Many of those were unsportsmanlike conduct penalties levied against Nebraska coach Bo Pelini who was arguing some questionable calls against the Huskers. Quarterback Taylor Martinez left the game with an ankle injury, and reportedly got into an argument with Pelini after the game. There were actually rumors circulating that Martinez had quit the team this week after being denigrated so much by Pelini. Those rumors proved to be false but Martinez is limping noticeably and was wearing a walking boot at practice. He is listed as questionable. Back-up Zac Lee has missed the last three games for the Huskers with a hand injury. He is close to returning but Nebraska might have to start third stringer Cody Green if Martinez and Lee can’t go. The uncertainty at quarterback explains the 3 1/2 point line drop for this game. Nebraska has struggled against the number recently in the series going only 3-14 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Colorado has gone 6-1 ATS in their last 7 trips to Lincoln. The last 2 games in the series have gone over the total.

Colorado fired head coach Dan Hawkins 3 weeks ago after a 5 game losing streak culminating with a 52-45 loss against Kansas. In that game the Buffs led 45-17 in the fourth quarter before Kansas reeled off 35 straight points to pull off the comeback. Since firing Hawkins and replacing him with Brian Cabral, Colorado has won two games in a row against Iowa St and Kansas St. They can actually go to a bowl if they beat Nebraska. Colorado is being outscored 30-25 this season, and they are giving up just under 400 yards a game. The Buffs only average 369 yards a game. They have a turnover margin of -3 but Colorado has forced 33 sacks on the season which is an average of 3 per game. Quarterback Cody Hawkins has played well since his father former Coach Dan was fired. Hawkins has thrown for only 1,384 yards but has only played half the season. He took over midway through the season for the injured Tyler Hansen. Hawkins has 12 touchdowns and 3 touchdowns for the season. The top receivers for Colorado are Scotty McKnight, Toney Clemons, and Paul Richardson. all three have at least 32 catches, 452 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Buffs rush for 141 yards a game led by Rodney Stewart who has 270 yards, 1,230 yards, and 10 touchdowns. The Buffs do struggle sometimes in the kicking game as Aric Goodman has only converted 9 out of 14 field goal attempts.

Conspiracy theorists say the Big 12 officials are punishing Nebraska for leaving the conference by giving all the calls to their opponents. A more likely explanation for the Cornhuskers’ penalty woes is they are aggressive on defense and get flagged for late hits and pass interference a lot. Also, Coach Bo Pelini alienates some officials with his fiery temper. Nebraska is averaging 73 yards a game in penalties, compared to only 38 yards a game for their opponents. Nebraska is outscoring their opponents 33-17 on the season. Nebraska is giving up only 295 yards a game. The Huskers are especially dominant against the pass as they only give up 143 yards a game. The Huskers have 16 interceptions on the season, but only have a turnover margin of +1. This is due to the Huskers having 12 lost fumbles on the season. They have 35 total fumbles for the season, pretty amazing for a team ranked in the top 10 for most of the year. Nebraska has forced 29 quarterback sacks on the season. Nebraska averages 426 yards a game on offense including 270 yards rushing per game. As mentioned, The Cornhuskers have some uncertainty at the quarterback position due to injuries. The offense moves so much better if the versatile freshman Taylor Martinez can go than with Lee or Green. Martinez has over 2,500 combined passing and rushing yards. He has 21 total touchdowns (12 rushing) and only 6 interceptions. Green and Lee have seen very little action this season. They have less than 300 passing yards combined along with a touchdown and a interception, both thrown by Green. They only have 51 attempts between the two of them. The injury bug has also hit the receiving corps as talented Niles Paul is out against Colorado with a foot injury. Not only is Paul the Huskers leading receiver but he is also a dangerous kick and punt returner. Besides Martinez, Roy Helu Jr, (151 carries, 1,043 yards and 10 touchdowns) and Rex Burkhead (125 carries, 721 yards, and 6 touchdowns) split most of the carries in the running game.

Nebraska’s injury woes have led to this line dropping 3 1/2 points. Nebraska is still talented enough to cover the number but they have a much better shot with Martinez under center. The turmoil surrounding both these programs has led to a tumultuous Big 12 conference fianle for these long time rivals who may be playing for the last time, at least for the foreseeable future.