Cincinnati Bearcats at #16 Louisville Cardinals
Friday, October 26, 2012, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium – Louisville, Kentucky
Opening Line: Louisville -4
Current Line: Louisville -3 (-115)
Opening Total: 53 1/2
Current Total: 52
Opening Money Line: Louisville -165 / Cincinnati +145
Current Money Line: Louisville -160 / Cincinnati +140
As the Big East conference season is in full swing, it is apparent that three teams are the class of the league. Rutgers, Louisville, and Cincinnati are all undefeated in conference play, and have separated themselves from the rest of the league. Two of those teams meet Friday night as the Louisville Cardinals host the Cincinnati Bearcats.
This is the 52nd meeting between the rivals. Cincinnati leads the series 29-21-1, including 13-10-1 in Louisville. The Bearcats have won 4 straight against the Cardinals, including 25-16 last year in Cincinnati.The teams will play for the Keg of Nails Trophy.
Cincinnati is 5-1 and 1-0 in the Big East under coach Butch Jones. The Bearcats are coming off their first loss of the season last week at Toledo 29-23. Cincinnati has home wins over Pittsburgh 34-10, Delaware St 23-7, Miami-(OH) 52-14, and Fordham 49-17, along with a 27-24 win over Virginia Tech in Landover, Maryland. The Bearcats are 3-2 ATS and the total is 2-2. Cincinnati was a 5.5 point favorite in the Toledo game and the total was 65.5.
Cincinnati is averaging 467.5 yards per game on offense, including 241.8 passing yards and 225.7 rushing yards. The Bearcats are outscoring teams 34.7-16.8. Cincinnati is 16th in rushing and 24th in total offense nationally. The Bearcats are +3 in turnovers this season. They are averaging 54.3 penalty yards per game and have allowed 4 sacks. Cincinnati is 42/83 on third and fourth down conversions and 23/27 scoring in the red zone with 16 touchdowns. On defense, the Bearcats are allowing 352.7 yards per game, including 229.8 passing and 122.8 rushing yard. Cincinnati is in the top 40 nationally in total and scoring defense, and against the run. The Bearcats have forced 13 turnovers and 19 sacks. Cincinnati opponents are 38/103 on third and fourth down conversions, and 11/17 scoring in the red zone with 6 touchdowns.
Cincinnati quarterback Munchie Legaux has completed 96 of 180 passes (53.3%) for 1,435 yards with 12 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, along with 44 carries, 264 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Running back George Winn has 97 carries, 607 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Ralph Abernathy has 37 carries, 245 yards and a touchdown, along with 14 catches, 209 yards and 3 touchdowns. Receiver Travis Kelce has 13 catches, 286 yards and 2 touchdowns. Kenbrell Thompkins has 18 catches, 276 yards, and a touchdown. Damon Julian has 14 catches, 243 yards and 3 touchdowns. Anthony McClung has 14 catches, 185 yards and a touchdown. Danny Milligan has only 7 catches, but 2 of them went for touchdowns.
Louisville is 7-0 this season and 2-0 in the Big East under coach Charlie Strong. The #16 Cardinals (BCS standings) are one of eleven undefeated FBS schools. Louisville has home wins over Kentucky 32-14, Missouri St 35-7, North Carolina 39-34, and last week against South Florida 27-25, along with road wins at Florida International 28-21, Southern Miss 21-17, and Pitt 45-35. The Cardinals are 3-4 ATS and the total is 3-3 this season. Louisville was a 6 point favorite in the South Florida game and the total was 56.
Louisville is averaging 405.6 yards per game on offense, including 244.1 passing and 161.4 rushing yards. The Cardinals are outscoring opponents 32.4-21.9 this season. Louisville is +3 in turnovers. The Cardinals are averaging 56.5 penalty yards per game and have allowed 13 sacks. Louisville is 57/98 on third and fourth down conversions, and 29/30 scoring in the red zone with 24 touchdowns. The Cardinals are allowing 339 yards per game on defense, including 213.1 passing and 125.9 rushing yards. Louisville has forced 10 turnovers and 14 sacks. Cardinal opponents are 43/103 on third and fourth down conversions and 19/24 scoring in the red zone with 17 touchdowns.
Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has completed 138 of 188 passes (73.4%) for 1,694 yards with 11 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with 42 carries, 82 yards and a touchdown. He has been sacked 11 times. Running back Senorise Perry has 107 carries, 588 yards and 10 touchdowns, along with 12 catches for 133 yards. Jeremy Wright has 110 carries, 477 yards and 7 touchdowns. Receiver DeVante Parker has 16 catches, 337 yards and 2 touchdowns. Damian Copeland has 23 catches, 262 yards and a touchdown. Apart from the running backs, Andrell Smith, Charles Gaines, Eli Rogers, Nate Nord, and Scott Radcliff will also get significant targets. Eight Cardinal receivers have caught at least one touchdown, but no one has more than 2.
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS after gaining more than 450 total yards, 6-2 overall, 5-2 on fieldturf, 11-5-1 after allowing more than 200 rushing yards, 4-9 in road games against teams with winning home records, and against teams with winning records, 6-15 after failing to cover, and 1-4 in Friday games. The road team is 6-1 ATS in this series recently, and Cincinnati has covered in four of their last five trips to Louisville.
Louisville is 6-1 ATS against teams with winning records, 5-1 after failing to cover, and in October, 8-2 in Big East games, 6-13 at home, 4-9 in Friday games, and 2-5 after a straight up win. The favorite is 11-4 ATS in this series recently.
Last week, Louisville looked sluggish in their 2 point win over South Florida who only has 2 wins this season. Meanwhile, Cincinnati was upset by Toledo despite not giving up an offensive touchdown. These are the top two rushing teams in the Big East, and the defenses are decent if not good. If Louisville wins this they should be favored in every game until their showdown with Rutgers to close out the regular season. However, they shouldn’t overlook a very good Cincinnati team. In fact I like the Bearcats to pull off the mild upset on the road.
This week’s college football picks are available now. Don’t miss out on any more winners this season.
