Washington Huskies at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Memorial Stadium – Lincoln, Nebraska
Saturday, September 7, 2011, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: ABC or ESPN
Opening Line: Nebraska -18 1/2 (all odds courtesy of bookmaker)
Current Line: Nebraska -17
Opening Total: 53
Current Total: 55
Opening Money Line: Nebraska -800 / Washington +600
Current Money Line: Nebraska -750 / Washington +525
Nebraska and Washington will play for the 10th time ever Saturday. The series is tied 4-4-1. In a strange occurrence for two teams in different conferences, the two teams are meeting for the third time in a year. Nebraska won in Seattle last year 56-21, and the two teams were matched up again in the 2010 Holiday Bowl. Washington beat an unmotivated Nebraska team 19-7. Nebraska quarterback Taylor Martinez was still recovering from a high ankle sprain in that game and was ineffective with only 53 yards passing, a touchdown, an interception and 23 yards rushing.
Both Washington and Nebraska are 2-0 this season, but it hasn’t been easy. Washington is coached by Steve Sarkisian and has two wins by a total of 11 points, over Eastern Washington 30-27 and Hawaii 40-32. Nebraska is coached by Bo Pelini, and has wins over Chattanooga 40-7 and Fresno St 42-29 last week.
Washington jumped out to a 21-0 lead last week against Hawaii in the first quarter. Hawaii came back and scored to make it 38-32 Washington with a minute and a half left in the game. In a play of significant interest to college football handicappers and bettors, Washington blocked the extra point and ran it back for two points to win 40-32 and cover the 5.5 point spread. Washington had 466 total yards in the game including 315 passing yards. Washington quarterback Keith Price was 18/25 passing with 315 yards, 4 touchdowns and an interception. Colorado allowed 388 yards on defense but held Hawaii to just 55 yards rushing. The Warriors had two turnovers and 7 penalties. Besides the blocked PAT that decided the cover, Washington also blocked another extra point earlier in the game, and successfully defended a two point conversion as well.
Washington is averaging 358 yards a game and 35 points a game. The Huskies are averaging 208.5 passing yards a game. They have 1 turnover and have allowed 5 sacks. Washington is 12/28 on third and fourth down conversions. Washington is giving up 446 yards a game but only 43 yards rushing a game. But when you give up over 400 passing yards a game you don’t really need to run the ball. Of course, Eastern Washington and Hawaii are two of the most prolific passing teams in the country, so perhaps the secondary isn’t as horrible as it would appear after two games. Washington has forced 6 turnovers and 3 sacks. Washington opponents are 23/35 on third and fourth down conversions.
Quarterback Keith Price is 35/50 passing with 417 yards, 7 touchdowns, and an interception. Running back Chris Polk has 45 carries for 232 yards and a touchdown, along with a catch for 11 yards. Receiver Devin Aguilar has 6 catches for 139 yards and a touchdown. Austin Seferian-Jenkins has 4 catches for 101 yards and a touchdown. Jermaine Kearse only has 2 catches but 2 of them went for touchdowns. Kicker Erik Folk is 12/12 on kicks with 8 extra points, and 4/4 on field goals with a long of 53 yards.
Talk about a balanced offense. Nebraska had 438 total yards with exactly 219 rushing and passing yards last week in the Cornhuskers’ 42-29 win over a game Fresno St team. Fresno St was actually up 20-14 in the third quarter before Nebraska came back to win, though the Huskers did not cover the 28 point spread. Nebraska quarterback Taylor Martinez provided most of the offense, as he was the leading passer and rusher for the Cornhuskers. He threw for 219 yards on 10/21 completions with one touchdown and 2 interceptions. Martinez rushed 15 times for 166 yards and two touchdowns. Rex Burkhead added two rushing touchdowns as well. Nebraska also had a 100 yard kick return in the fourth quarter by Ameer Abdullah to give the Cornhuskers a 9 point lead. Nebraska allowed 444 total yards to Fresno St including 190 rushing yards. The Bulldogs also had a special teams touchdown on a 67 yard punt return in the first quarter.
Nebraska is averaging 401 yards and 41 points per game this season. The Cornhuskers are averaging 224 rushing yards a game. Nebraska has 4 turnovers and has allowed 2 sacks. The Huskers are 15/33 on third and fourth down conversions. Nebraska has allowed 337 yards and 18 points a game. The Cornhuskers have allowed 125 rushing yards a game. They have forced 2 turnovers and 3 sacks. Nebraska opponents are 16/40 on third and fourth downs.
Martinez is making an early claim for the Heisman trophy. He has 636 combined passing and rushing yards, with 6 total touchdowns and 2 interceptions in 2 games. Burkhead is really the only other contributor to the offense besides Martinez with 26 carries for 130 yards and 3 scores. Jamal Turner, Kyler Reed, and Quincy Enunwa are the top receivers but none have more than 5 catches. Kicker Brett Maher is 10/10 on kicks including 4 field goals with a long of 50 yards.
Nebraska is 0-2 against the spread this season and the total is 1-1. Washington is 1-1 ATS and the total is 1-0-1 this season. The Huskies are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 after a straight up win, 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 road games, 5-1-1 in the last seven overall, 4-1-1 in the last 6 as an underdog of 10.5 points or greater, and 0-3-1 in the last 4 versus Big Ten teams. Nebraska was still in the Big 12 when the two teams met in the Bowl Game last year if you were thinking that last stat was inaccurate. The Cornhuskers are 20-4-1 in the last 25 home games versus teams with winning road records, 1-4 ATS in the last 5 home games, 1-4 ATS in the last 5 after a straight up win, 1-4-1 in the last 6 September games, 2-10-1 in the last 13 as a home favorite, 2-11-1 in the last 14 as a favorite of 10.5 points or greater including 1-9-1 as a home favorite of that spread.
Nebraska is clearly the better team and will be out for revenge after such an embarrassing loss in the Holiday Bowl, but recent history says the Cornhuskers simply don’t cover at home when they are double digit favorites. I like Washington to cover the number even though it has dropped to 17.
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