Purdue at Missouri
Time: 3 PM (CT)
Spread: MIS -7.5
Total: 78
Odds c/o 5dimes
Missouri fell to 1-1 last week after its 31-13 loss to South Carolina. It had defeated Missouri State 72-43 in Week 1, but found its offense tougher going against the Gamecocks in Week 2.
This week the Tigers host visiting Purdue as 7.5 point favorites in a game which features the highest over/under of the week at 78 points. College football oddsmakers are not expecting much defense in the game which will air at 3 PM (Central) on the SEC Network.
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Week 1 was an offensive bonanza for the Tigers. Quarterback Drew Lock threw for 521 yards on 21 of 34 passing with an astounding seven TD passes, and just one interception. Damarea Crockett could not be stopped out of the backfield, rushing for 202 yards on 18 carries with two of the Tigers’ three rushing TDs. Missouri had 294 rushing yards on the game and averaged 7.2 yards per carry. Missouri State had its own successes offensively with 43 points, but the Tigers offense was so dominant it was hardly a worry. That might not be the case this week against Purdue. The Boilermakers are averaging 31 points per game this season despite having gone just 1-1 thus far.
Purdue lost Week 1, but it held its own against a much tougher team as it fell 35-28 to Lamar Jackson and the Louisville Cardinals. The Boilermakers led early in the game and were up 14-10 at the half. Jackson had a monster game, but Purdue presented its own problems to Louisville with the air attack. The Boilermakers quarterback tandem of David Blough and Elijah Sindelar combined to throw 33 of 57 for 293 yards with four TDs and three interceptions between them. Blough was responsible for two of those picks, but the real problem for Purdue was a lack of production from its backs. Purdue managed just 51 rushing yards on 21 attempts, and its quarterbacks combined for negative-2 yards on five carries.
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The Boilermakers are going to need something on the ground to have a chance this week, and Tario Fuller has been pretty ineffective thus far. The 6-foot 190 pound sophomore only carried the ball 10 times last season, and he is pretty inexperienced as the team’s top rush option this year. Week 2 he was much better in the 44-21 win over Ohio, though, with 142 yards on 16 carries, including a long-rush of 39 yards and a TD.
The Boilermakers are hoping for more of that from him this week, but Missouri may just allow him. The Tigers are not a good defense against the rush, and last season Missouri gave up 232.8 yards per game and ranked No. 112 in rush defense. Overall, the team surrendered 31.5 points per game, again part of why this betting total is so high for this game.
The Tigers did improve its pass rushing late last season, and Nate Howard and Tre Williams are good edge rushers who could help it improve further in 2017, but the team has an inexperienced secondary and its tackles are new starters, too. With just four returning defensive starters and two of those being safeties, it could be viewed as a good thing, given the team’s struggles last year, but the inexperience is troubling and it has not been good thus far.
Missouri did hold South Carolina to just 13-points, but that is hardly a loaded offense and the team will really be tested in the next two weeks against SEC rivals Kentucky and No. 13 ranked Georgia. This game could be a bit closer than the 7.5-point spread, and Blough could really have a day against Missouri. The interesting to see, in determining how much Missouri can win by this week, is whether Tario Fuller can get it going against one of the best defenses for an inexperienced running back to face.
