Time: 3:30 PM EST, Saturday, Sept 15
TV: ESPN
Spread: PENN -7
Total: 46.5
M/L: PENN -255, NAVY +215
Betting Odds from Bookmaker
PENN STATE
The post-Paterno era has been rough so far for the Nittany Lions. As losers of their first two games, they’ll try to get back on track against a Navy team that college football oddsmakers have favored the Nittany Lions by seven points.
Last week, they lost by one to Virginia as a Sam Ficken missed field goal sealed their fate. They committed four turnovers in Virginia territory and had the opportunities but was unable to convert upon them. Their defense also fell short at the most crucial times.
The fact that Penn State players were able to transfer without penalty decimated their lineup, and losing Silas Redd left Curtis Dukes as the top rusher on the roster, but Dukes ran for only 237 yards last year. The coaching staff, like the players, was overhauled, and the result has been disarray for the Nittany Lions.
So far, however, it has been senior Derek Day who has been the primary ball carrier, as he has rushed for 87 yards in the two losses, while failing to record a TD. Dukes has carried the ball only 10 times for 30 yards, and Bill Belton even has more than him with 13 carries for 53 yards. The ground game must improve for Penn State to even beat teams like the Navy.
Matt McGloin threw for 19 of 35 completions last week, totally 197 yards. Last year, he had a similar completion rate, with 54.1%, while totaling 1,571 yards.
2011 was an improvement for McGloin though, as he lowered his interceptions from 9 in 2010 to only 5 last year. This year, so far, he has just one, but his QB rating is 115.2. He’s also avoided being sacked for the most part, with only one sack. It’s improvement, but the Nittany Lions are just decimated in the wake of one of the worst scandals ever in sports.
NAVY
The Midshipmen had last week off after playing week one in Ireland against Notre Dame. They lost that contest 50-10, as Trey Miller threw for 192 yards on 14 completions in 19 passes.
The junior QB has a high QB rating still, at 165.4, mainly because of the high completion ratio of 73.7%. He didn’t scramble well, though, with 16 rushes for 20 yards, and one of them was a 9 yard rush, meaning he was negative for the other 15 rushes on average.
Navy has made eight straight bowl games, though, and if they can avoid the costly mistakes that plagued them last year, they could improve upon the 5-7 record they compiled in 2011. Athlon magazine predicts a 7-5 finish by the Midshipmen, who will need better special teams play to reach that goal. Navy has been able to stay in games, but has problems closing them out, as they lost five games by three points or less in 2011.
Their 2011 bowl game came against fellow armed service squad, Army, and they won by 6 points.
Betting Trends:
Navy is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 40+ pts. They are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs teams with losing home records and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 in September. They are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 on grass and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 following an SU loss of 20+
Penn State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs teams with losing road records, and 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 overall. The Nittany Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 non-conf games and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 at home. They are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 following an ATS win.
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