#9 Kansas State Wildcats at #6 Baylor Bears
McLane Stadium – Waco, Texas
Saturday, December 6, 2014, 7:45 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Baylor -9
Current Line: Baylor -7 (-115)
Opening Total: 67
Current Total: 66 1/2
Opening Money Line: Baylor -290 / Kansas State +240
Current Money Line: Baylor -280 / Kansas State +230
Barring upsets in championship weekend, three teams are pretty safe bets for the four college football playoffs. Alabama, Oregon and Florida State will make the field if they win their conference championship games. Oregon already won the Pac 12 Championship Friday night with a 51-13 destruction of Arizona. The fourth spot is pretty much down to three teams, again barring upsets. The #3 TCU Horned Frogs, #5 Ohio State Buckeyes and #6 Baylor Bears can all stake their claim to the last playoff spot with only one loss each. All three play on Saturday. TCU hosts lowly Iowa State, and Ohio State plays Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship game. Baylor hosts #9 Kansas State Saturday night.
If TCU beats Iowa State, then the winner of Baylor of Kansas State will share the Big 12 title with the Horned Frogs. All three teams are 7-1 in conference. TCU lost to Baylor but beat Kansas State. If 34.5 point underdog Iowa State can pull off the miracle upset in Fort Worth, the the winner of Baylor and Kansas State will win the Big 12 title outright. Baylor is 10-1 and Kansas State is 9-2 this season. Kansas State has an outside shot of qualifying for the playoff but would need a lot of upsets for that to happen.
Kansas State looks to win their third Big 12 title and second in 3 years. Baylor is looking to clinch their second straight after winning their first Big 12 title last year. Kansas State leads the series 7-4 against Baylor but the series is tied 3-3 in Waco. Baylor won last year’s meeting 35-25 in Manhattan.
Kansas State is coached by Bill Snyder. The Wildcats have a home loss to Auburn 20-14 and at TCU 41-20. Kansas State has won 2 straight games since the TCU loss. The Wildcats have home wins over Stephen F. Austin 55-16, UTEP 58-28, Texas Tech 45-13, Texas 23-0, Oklahoma State 48-14 and Kansas last week 51-13, along with road wins at Iowa State 32-28, Oklahoma 31-30 and West Virginia 26-20 . Kansas State is 8-3 ATS and the total is 7-4 this season. The Wildcats were 26.5 point favorites against Kansas and the total was 52.
Baylor is coached by Art Briles. The only loss came at West Virginia 41-27. The Bears have won 4 straight games since then. Baylor has home wins over SMU 45-0, Northwestern State 70-6, TCU 61-58, Kansas 60-14 and Oklahoma State 49-28.. The Bears have road wins at Buffalo 63-21, Iowa State 49-28, Texas 28-7, Oklahoma 48-14 along with a neutral site win last week over Texas Tech 48-46 in Arlington. Baylor is 6-4-1 ATS and the total is 7-4. The Bears were 26.5 point favorites against Texas Tech and the total was 79.5.
Kansas State is outscoring teams 37-20 this season. KSU is #21 in scoring and #17 in points allowed nationally. The Wildcats are averaging 428 total yards per game including 282 passing and 147 rushing yards. K-State is #21 in passing and #92 in rushing. On defense, Kansas State is allowing 341 total yards per game including 221 passing and 120 rushing yards per game. The Wildcats are #19 in rush defense and #23 in total defense. Kansas State is +9 in turnovers and has forced 19 turnovers. The Wildcats are averaging 40 penalty yards per game and opponents average 53. Kansas State is 73/155 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 66/165. Kansas State has forced 22 sacks and allowed 20 this season. The Wildcats are 49/55 scoring in the red zone with 38 touchdowns, and opponents are 23/30 with 17 touchdowns. Kansas State has allowed a punt return for a touchdown and a pick six. The Wildcats have a punt return, a kickoff return and an interception return all for touchdowns.
Kansas State quarterback Jake Waters has thrown for 2,863 yards with 18 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, plus he has rushed for 440 yards on 119 carries with 8 touchdowns. Back-up quarterback Joe Hubener has thrown for 235 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Hubener has 27 carries for 142 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Running back Charles Jones has 111 carries for 476 yards and 12 touchdowns, plus 6 catches and a touchdown. Running back DeMarcus Robinson has 101 carries for 410 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 8 catches for 69 yards and touchdown. Receiver Tyler Lockett has 79 catches for 1,193 yards and 8 touchdown catches, along with a punt return for a touchdown. Curry Sexton has 67 catches for 940 yards and 5 touchdowns. Zach Trujillo, Deante Burton, and Kody Cook will also get a lot of targets.
Baylor is outscoring teams 50-24 this season. Baylor is #1 in scoring and #41 in points allowed nationally. The Bears are averaging 581 total yards per game including 340 passing yards and 241 rushing yards. The Bears are #1 in total offense, #6 in passing and #20 in rushing nationally. On defense, Baylor is allowing 365 yards per game on defense including 256 passing yards and 108 rushing yards per game. The Bears are #103 in pass defense and #10 against the run. Baylor is +12 in turnovers with 23 takeaways. The Bears are averaging 89 penalty yards per game and opponents average 69 yards per game. Baylor is 111/222 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 67/200. The Bears have forced 32 sacks and have allowed 17. Baylor is 55/65 scoring in the red zone with 42 touchdowns, and opponents are 24/28 with 18 touchdowns. The Bears have one defensive touchdown and has allowed a pick six and a kick return for a touchdown.
Baylor quarterback Bryce Petty has completed 59.3% of his passes for 2,893 yards with 25 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, plus 70 carries for 131 yards and 4 touchdowns. He is probable with a concussion suffered last week against Texas Tech. Seth Russell has completed 56.5% of his passes for 804 yards with 8 touchdowns and an interception and also rushed for 185 yards and 3 touchdowns. Most of Russell’s stats came in the first two games of the season when Petty missed a game and a half with a back injury. Russell did play last week when Petty got injured.
Running back Shock Linwood has 222 carries for 1,135 yards and 15 touchdowns, plus 6 catches for 76 yards. Johnny Jefferson has 90 carries for 480 yards and 4 touchdowns. Devin Chafin has 79 carries for 385 yards and 8 touchdowns. He is out with an elbow injury. Silas Nacita has 31 carries for 191 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Receiver Corey Coleman has 53 catches for 928 yards and 10 touchdowns. KD Cannon has 47 catches for 800 yards and 6 touchdowns. Antwan Goodley has 42 catches for 621 yards and 5 touchdowns. Jay Lee has 33 catches for 539 yards and 6 touchdowns. Davion Hall has 15 catches for 210 yards and a touchdown.
The Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game, 21-6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 23-8-1 ATS in their last 32 games following a ATS win, 37-13-1 ATS in their last 51 conference games, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game, 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 road games, 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a SU win of more than 20 points, 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall, and 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.The underdog has covered the last 4 games in this series. Kansas State is 4-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings against Baylor.
The Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in December, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game, 23-5 ATS in their last 28 home games, 11-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall, 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game, 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game, 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game, 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game, 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 conference games, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. Four of the last five games in the series went over the total. The home team is 5-1 ATS in this series recently.
Kansas State can be explosive on offense, but I am not sure they want to get into a shootout with Baylor. The Wildcats would be content to play this game in the 20’s. Baylor will look to impress the playoff committee with a big win over a top 10 team. I like the Bears to win in Waco.
