#7 Oregon St Beavers at Washington Huskies
Saturday, October 27, 2012, 10:15 pm Eastern, TV: Pac 12 Network
CenturyLink Field – Seattle, Washington
Opening Line: Oregon St -4
Current Line: Oregon St -3 1/2
Opening Total: 48 1/2
Opening Money Line: OSU -165 / Washington +145
Current Money Line: OSU -160 / Washington +140
The Washington Huskies and #7 Oregon St Beavers meet Saturday night for the 97th time in Seattle. The series dates back to 1897. Washington leads the series 58-34-4. Oregon St has won 7 of the last 8 games in the series including 38-21 last year in Corvallis.
Oregon St is 6-0 this season and 4-0 in the Pac 12 under coach Mike Riley. The Beavers are one of 11 undefeated teams left in the country. Oregon St has home wins over Wisconsin 10-7, Washington St 38-35, and last week against Utah 21-7, along with road wins at UCLA 27-20, Arizona 38-35, and BYU 42-24. The Beavers are 5-1 ATS and the total is 2-4 this season. Oregon St was a 10 point favorite in the Utah game last week and the total was 47.
Oregon St is averaging 419 yards per game on offense, including 310.7 passing yards and 108.3 rushing yards. The Beavers are #15 nationally in passing but #110 in rushing. OSU is outscoring teams 26-17 this season. The Beavers are +10 in turnovers. Oregon St is averaging 82.2 penalty yards per game and has allowed 11 sacks. The Beavers are 35/98 on third and fourth down conversions, and 21/25 scoring in the red zone with 16 touchdowns. On defense, Oregon St is allowing 352.7 yards per game, including 271.8 passing yards and 80.8 rushing yards. The Beavers are #110 against the pass, but have the nation’s 5th best rush defense. Oregon St has forced 16 turnovers and 16 sacks. Beaver opponents are 28/96 on third and fourth down conversions and 15/19 scoring in the red zone with 10 touchdowns.
Oregon St quarterback Sean Mannion missed the last two games with a knee injury. He is probable for the Washington game, but back-up Cody Vaz could see some snaps though. Vaz started the games against BYU and Utah. Mannion has completed 107 of 169 passes (63.3%) for 1,358 yards with 7 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He has been sacked 9 times. Vaz is 36/58 passing (62.1%) for 506 yards with 3 touchdowns. He has been sacked twice. Running back Storm Woods has 102 carries, 450 yards and 6 touchdowns, along with 19 catches for 147 yards. Malcolm Agnew has 37 carries for 154 yards. Tyler Anderson has 9 carries, but 2 rushing touchdowns. Receiver Brandin Cooks has 35 catches, 667 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 9 carries for 39 yards. Markus Wheaton has 48 catches, 654 yards and 6 touchdowns, along with 10 carries, 38 yards and a touchdown. Besides Woods no other receiver has more than 11 catches.
Washington is 3-4 this season and 1-3 in the Pac 12 under coach Steve Sarkisian. After a 3-1 start the Huskies have lost 3 games in a row. Washington has wins over San Diego St 21-12, Portland St 52-13, and Stanford 17-13 all in Seattle. The Huskies are playing home games at CenturyLink Field this season while Husky Stadium is being renovated. Washington has losses at LSU 41-3, Oregon 52-21, and last week at Arizona 52-17, along with a 24-14 home loss to USC. The Huskies are 3-4 ATS and the total is 2-4 this season. Washington was an 8.5 point underdog at Arizona last week and the total was 65.5.
The Huskies are averaging 326.4 yards per game, including 196.4 passing yards and 130 rushing yards. Washington is 93rd or worse in all three categories. On defense, the Huskies are allowing 380.1 yards per game, including 184.6 passing yards (#18 nationally) and 195.6 rushing yards per game. Washington is being outscored 30-21. The Huskies have forced 13 turnovers, and have a turnover margin of -3. The Huskies average 68.1 penalty yards per game and have allowed 21 sacks this year. Washington has forced 9 sacks. The Huskies are 44/119 on third and fourth down conversions, and 15/22 scoring in the red zone with 13 touchdowns. Husky opponents are 42/106 on third and fourth downs, and 21/25 scoring in the red zone with 14 touchdowns.
Washington quarterback Keith Price has completed 143 of 238 passes (60.1%) for 1,336 yards with 8 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He has been sacked 21 times through 7 games. The leaky offensive line is also why the running game has struggled. Three Husky offensive linemen are listed as questionable or out for the Oregon St game. Bishop Sankey has 122 carries, 574 yards and 7 touchdowns, and 15 catches for 96 yards. Running back Erich Wilson II has 25 carries, 140 yards and a touchdown. Running backs Jesse Callier and Deontae Cooper are both out for the season with knee injuries. Receiver Kasen Williams has 41 catches, 442 yards and 4 touchdowns. Tight end Austin Sefarian-Jenkins has 37 catches, 447 yards and 3 touchdowns. Receiver James Johnson is out indefinitely with a wrist injury.Ten Huskies are listed as out against Oregon St.
Oregon St is 7-1 ATS in road games against teams with losing home records, 6-1-1 overall, 4-1-1 in Pac 12 games, and after a straight up win, 6-2 after rushing for less than 100 yards, 3-1-1 on field turf, 40-14-1 in October, 18-7-1 in road games, 11-5-2 after gaining 275 total yards or less, 55-27-2 after a cover, and 2-5 against teams with losing records. The Beavers are 8-0 ATS against Washington recently, including 5-0 in Seattle.
Washington is 5-1-1 after allowing more than 40 points, 8-2 at home, 13-5-1 on fieldturf, 5-2 at home against teams with winning road records, 3-8 after a straight up loss of 20 points or more, 13-36-2 in October, 2-6 against teams with winning records, 2-8 after allowing more than 450 yards, and 1-5 after scoring 20 points or less. Four of the last five games in this series have gone over the total, but the under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Seattle.
Washington is a lot better at home than on the road. They upset Stanford and played USC close in Seattle. Though Oregon St is undefeated they haven’t played the toughest schedule. Other than Wisconsin, every other team is mediocre at best. I think Oregon St wins, but it will be close.
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