#12 UCLA Bruins vs Texas Longhorns
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, Texas
Saturday, September 13, 2014, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox
Opening Line: UCLA -6
Current Line: UCLA -8
Opening Total: 54
Current Total: 50 1/2
Opening Money Line: UCLA -280 / Texas +240
Current Money Line: UCLA -320 / Texas +260
While the UCLA Bruins are 2-0 with narrow wins over Virginia and Memphis, the Texas Longhorns would love to have those kind of problems. Texas is 1-1 this season after a win against North Texas and for the second season in a row a blowout loss to BYU. Eight players are either suspended or kicked off the team for the Longhorns plus another four players are listed on the injury report for the Longhorns.
UCLA and Texas meet for the seventh time ever Saturday in Arlington, Texas. The series is tied 3-3. Texas won the last meeting 49-20 in 2011 in Pasadena.
UCLA is coached by Jim Mora. The Bruins won at Virginia 28-20 and last week at home against Memphis 42-35. UCLA is 0-2 ATS and the total is 1-1 this season. The Bruins were 22 point favorites against Memphis and the total was 56.
Texas is coached by Charlie Strong. The Longhorns beat North Texas 38-7 but lost to BYU 41-7 last week, both in Austin. Texas is 1-1 ATS and the total is 1-1 this season. Texas was a one point favorite against BYU and the total was 47.5.
UCLA is outscoring teams 35-28. The Bruins are averaging 449 yards per game including 319 passing and 130 rushing. On defense, UCLA is allowing 428 yards per game including 286 passing and 142 rushing. UCLA is even in turnovers with 3 takeaways. The Bruins average 86 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 65. UCLA is 16/37 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 18/43. The Bruins have forced 1 sack and allowed 9 this season. UCLA is 5/5 scoring in the red zone with 5 touchdowns and opponents are 5/6 with 3 touchdowns. The Bruins have three defensive scores this season, all against Virginia.
UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley has completed 68.8% of his passes for 638 yards with 3 touchdowns and an interception, along with 26 carries for 65 yards and a touchdown. Running back Paul Perkins has 39 carries for 178 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jordan Payton has 15 catches for 202 yards. Thomas Duarte has 7 catches for 149 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Texas is being outscored 24-23 this season. The Longhorns are averaging 306 yards per game on offense, including 183 passing and 123 rushing yards. On defense, Texas is allowing 264 yards per game including 98 passing and 166 rushing yards. Texas is #8 in pass defense and #16 against in total defense out of 128 FBS teams. The Longhorns are even in turnovers with 6 takeaways. Texas is 9/33 on third and fourth down conversions, and opponents are 10/34. The Longhorns are 6/8 scoring in the red zone with 5 touchdowns and opponents are 6/6 with 4 touchdowns. Texas has forced 10 sacks and allowed 5 this season. The Longhorns are averaging 65 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 48 penalty yards per game. Texas has a pick six and has allowed a fumble return for a touchdown.
Texas quarterback David Ash is out indefinitely after suffering another concussion. He missed most of last season with the same injury. Tyrone Swoopes is now the starter. He has completed 64.5% of his passes for for 176 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Johnathan Gray has 30 carries for 129 yards. Malcolm Brown has 27 carries for 93 yards and 2 touchdowns. John Harris has 5 catches for 187 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jaxon Shipley has 11 catches for 79 yards but is is questionable with a head injury.
UCLA is 4-1 ATS after passing for 280 yards or more, 6-2 in September, 5-2 after scoring 40 points or more, 7-3 after a straight up win and in non-conference games, and 9-4 after failing to cover.
Texas is 12-2 ATS after a double digit home loss, 4-1 after failing to cover, 5-2 against Pac 12 teams, 3-8-1 in neutral site games games, 5-15-1 after rushing for less than 100 yards, 1-4 against teams with winning records and in non-conference games, and 1-6 after gaining less than 275 total yards.
Texas is reeling right now but certainly has the talent to rebound. Still, I think this will be a tough task against a tough UCLA team that has yet to play a complete game. The Bruins win.
