#20 Wisconsin Badgers vs #3 Alabama Crimson Tide
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, Texas
Saturday, September 5, 2015, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: ABC
Opening Line: Alabama -9 1/2
Current Line: Alabama -11
Opening Total: 52 1/2
Current Total: 46
Opening Money Line: Alabama -410 / Wisconsin +344
Current Money Line: Alabama -450 / Wisconsin +374
The Wisconsin Badgers and Alabama Crimson Tide meet for only the second time ever Saturday in Arlington, Texas. For what it’s worth, Wisconsin beat Alabama in Madison 15-0 in 1928.
Wisconsin coach Gary Andersen surprisingly left to become the head coach at Oregon State. The Badgers brought back former offensive coordinator Paul Chryst, who had been the head coach at Pittsburgh. After a sluggish 3-2 start last year, Wisconsin would win 7 straight games and clinch the Big Ten West Division title. However, they were crushed 59-0 by eventual national champion Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game. Wisconsin would beat Auburn 34-31 in overtime in the Outback Bowl to finish 11-3. The Badgers have won at least 9 games in 5 of the last six seasons.
The Alabama Crimson Tide won 3 national titles in four seasons from 2009-12 under coach Nick Saban. However losses in the Sugar Bowl the last two seasons have Alabama fans and boosters a tiny bit restless. Last year, Alabama went 12-2 and won the SEC Championship game by beating Missouri 42-13. The Crimson Tide were the #1 seed in the inaugural College Football Playoff but were upset 42-35 in the Sugar Bowl by #4 seed Ohio State.
Wisconsin was 6-8 ATS and the total was 7-5-2 last year. Alabama was 5-9 ATS and the total was 7-6 this season.
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Wisconsin averaged 469 total yards per game on offense including 320 rushing and 149 passing yards. The Badgers were #21 in total offense and #3 in rushing. The passing game was #116 nationally out of 128 teams. Wisconsin was #27 in scoring at 35 points per game. The Badgers were -9 in turnovers. Wisconsin allowed 294 yards per game on defense including 168 passing and 126 rushing yards. The Badgers allowed 21 points per game. Wisconsin was #4 in both total and pass defense, and in the top 25 against the rush and in points allowed.
Quarterback Joel Stave threw for 1,350 yards with 9 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Last year’s back-up Tanner McEvoy has moved to safety but will also play some wide receiver. He threw for 709 yards with 5 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, and rushed for 574 yards with 6 touchdowns.
Running back Melvin Gordon was a first round draft pick by the San Diego Chargers. He was a Heisman Finalist with 343 carries for 2,587 yards with 29 touchdowns, and also 19 catches for 153 yards and 3 touchdowns. Corey Clement will be the feature back after rushing for 949 yards on 147 carries with 9 touchdowns, and making 14 catches for 119 yards with 2 touchdowns.
Receiver Alex Erickson had 55 catches for 772 yards and 3 touchdowns. Receiver Robert Wheelwright and tight ends Troy Fumagalli & Austin Traylor will also get plenty of targets. McEvoy is probable with a knee injury. He hasn’t caught a pass in a game since 2009.
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Last year, under coordinator Lane Kiffin, Alabama was #37 or better in total offense, passing, rushing and scoring. KIffin returns for his second year as coordinator. The Crimson Tide averaged 485 yards per game (278 passing and 207 rushing yards) and 37 points per game. Last season, Alabama was in the top 12 nationally in total defense (328 yards per game), rush defense (102 ypg) and points allowed (18). The pass defense struggled slightly allowing 226 yards per game. Seven starters are back for coordinator Kirby Smart. Alabama was -2 in turnovers.
Last season, Blake Sims and Jake Coker competed throughout fall camp for the starting quarterback job. The competition actually went through the second game of the season, when Saban named Sims the full time starter. Sims completed 64.5% of his passes for 3,487 yards with 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and he also had 83 carries for 350 yards and 7 touchdowns. Sims set the Alabama single season record for passing yards but has graduated. Coker threw for 403 yards and 4 touchdowns. The senior headlined a group of five players entering the spring to compete to replace Sims. However, Coker and redshirt freshman David Cornwell emerged as the favorites. Saban listed all five quarterbacks on the roster at the top of the depth chart and will not release the name of his starter until game time.
Junior running back Derrick Henry will be the feature back after splitting time with T.J. Yeldon the last two seasons. Yeldon is now in the NFL with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Henry had 172 carries for 990 yards and 11 touchdowns, along with 5 catches for 133 yards and 2 touchdowns. Yeldon departs as the schools #4 all-time leading rusher after he had 194 carries for 979 yards and 11 touchdowns, along with 15 catches for 180 yards and a touchdown. Kenyan Drake should get most of the back-up carries after suffering a horrific broken leg last October in a loss to Ole Miss. He had four rushing touchdowns and 2 receiving touchdowns in just four games before the injury.
The top three receivers are gone for the Crimson Tide, most notably Amari Cooper. Cooper was the #4 overall pick in the NFL draft by the Oakland Raiders. He had 124 catches for 1,727 yards and 16 touchdowns and was a Heisman finalist. DeAndrew White is now with the San Francisco 49ers after making 40 catches for 504 yards and 4 touchdowns last year. Christion Jones is now with the Miami Dolphins after making 19 catches for 264 yards and a touchdown. Tight end O.J. Howard is the leading returning receiver after making 17 catches for 260 yards. Dakota Bell will also start at tight end as Alabama mainly uses 2 wide receivers and 2 tight end sets. Chris Black and Robert Foster will likely start at receiver after combining for 21 catches in 2014. True freshman Calvin Ridley was one of the most highly touted recruits out of high school at receiver and will get plenty of targets. Cam Sims and Parker Barrineau are both questionable at receiver.
Wisconsin is 5-2-1 ATS in September and 1-4 in neutral site games. Alabama is 4-1 ATS against Big Ten teams, 9-4 in neutral site games, 5-12-1 overall, 2-6 in September, and 3-12-1 in non-conference games.
Wisconsin needs to replace Gordon, almost an impossible task, but Clement is a good back. Alabama only returns two starters on offense but is still one of the favorites to win the SEC and at least make the playoff. I think Alabama wins by pulling away late.
