No. 12 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 8 Michigan State Spartans
Saturday, 3/10/12, 1:40 PM EST, TV: CBS
Opening Point Spread: Michigan State -3
Current Betting Line: Michigan State -4
Opening Total: 115
Current Total: 115
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker
Wisconsin enters this Big Ten Conference semifinal affair off a solid 79-71 win over the Indiana Hoosiers as one-point neutral-site underdogs. The Badgers will be led by the play of senior point guard Jordan Taylor, who is averaging 21.8 points in five games as a starter versus the Michigan State Spartans, while also averaging 16.3 points per game during conference play. Wisconsin is 3-0 ATS when playing on a neutral court this year with the “over” being 2-1 in those contests.
The Badgers have a great chance in advancing to the championship game due to winning the last three meetings with the Spartans in this particular event. It’s important to note that the program ended up on the losing side in both regular-season meetings earlier this year. Wisconsin is led by a defense that paced the nation in giving up just 51.8 points per game coming into yesterday’s victory, which was made possible due to holding opponents to 27.6 percent shooting from beyond the arc.
Michigan State aims to advance to its first Big Ten Tournament title game since 2000, coming off an impressive 92-75 win over the Iowa Hawkeyes on Friday afternoon. The Spartans will need to play with some intensity on the defensive end, allowing 72.3 points per game over the last three contests, which is drastically different than surrendering 57.8 before that stretch. Senior forward Draymond Green is the player to watch when on the floor, averaging 16.3 points and 10.2 rebounds per game. Michigan State is 0-5 ATS as a neutral floor favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.
The Spartans are 16-12 all-time in this event, including a 2-6 mark when playing in the semifinals. Michigan State ranks second nationally in allowing opponents to shoot 37.6 percent from the floor, which is actually the lowest percentage during the Tom Izzo era. He usually has his team playing best during March, posting a 71-33 career record during the month since arriving on campus. The Spartans are 2-3 versus the Badgers in the Big Ten Tournament. I anticipate that this game may be won in the paint, with Green helping his squad outscore opponents in that area in 28 of 32 games.
Bettors will likely back the Badgers due to their 16-13 ATS mark on the year, while the Spartans are 8-11 ATS in neutral court games over the last two-plus campaigns.
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