North Carolina at Kentucky
Time: NOON ET
TV: CBS
Spread: KY -12
Total: 135
Betting odds c/o Bovada
The No. 21 ranked North Carolina Tar Heels are 6-2 on the season but will find itself dogged to the best team in the nation, the Kentucky Wildcats.
The Cats are 10-0 on the season and though the team just suffered the loss of Alex Poythress for the remainder of the year, this year’s squad is deep enough to weather one—or even multiple— injuries.
Kentucky’s platoon substitutions are what make Poythress and every Cat interchangeable pieces. No player sees more than Willie Cauley-Stein’s 24 minutes per game, and he’s the only one averaging double figure scoring on the squad. Yet, the Cats have nine players averaging five points per game or more, and the Harrison brothers have stepped up to be major leaders on the court. Aaron Harrison is averaging 9.8 points per game, second on the team only to Cauley-Stein.
Kentucky’s only seeming weakness is the three-point shot. The team shoots just 27.7 percent from behind the arc and Devin Booker is the only rotation player who shoots above 30 percent from three. It’s hardly a critical matter with a team this talented, though. Kentucky shoots 46.6 overall from the field and averaging 75 points per game.
Besides that, Aaron Harrison shot 35.6 percent last year as a freshman, and his percentages will approach that benchmark. Similarly, Andrew Harrison shot 35.1 percent last season and is down in the 20’s too. The team will improve its perimeter shooting, but with so many athletes it is hardly imperative at this point in the season, and possibly through the NCAA tournament.
Kentucky has faced two AP ranked opponents this season in then- No. 5 Kansas on Nov 18 and then- No. 6 Texas on Dec 5. The Cats obliterated Kansas on national TV, winning the game by 32 points due to suffocating defense that held Kansas to just 12 points in the second half. The Jayhawks also shot just 19.6 percent from the floor. Again, this was against a Final Four contending team.
The matchup against the Texas Longhorns still yielded a double digit victory, as Kentucky won 63-51 in Lexington. Cauley-Stein was dominant, scoring 21 points, grabbing 12 rebounds, coming up with five steals and three blocks. Though Kentucky shot just 37.5 percent from the floor, its defense once again keyed the victory, holding Texas to 29.8 percent shooting on the night.
North Carolina has been an impressive team thus far. The Tar Heels are 3rd in the nation in rebounding (45.1 per game) and are having no problem moving and scoring the basketball, averaging 81.4 points and 18 assists per game. Despite the strong play, the Tar Heels have lost two games it likely should have been able to emerge victorious in, to Butler on Nov 26 and Iowa on Dec 3. Against ranked opponents (UCLA and Florida), the Tar Heels are 2-0. But this is an entirely different type of ranked opponent in Kentucky.
Unlike the Wildcats, the Tar Heels stick heavily to its top eight players, with all five starters seeing 20 minutes or more a game. Marcus Paige is the only Tar Heel to see 30-plus minutes, and he leads the team in scoring (14 points per game and is second in assists (3.4) while shooting 34 percent from three-point range (though just 35.5 percent from the floor).
Kennedy Meeks has been dominant on the interior, averaging a double-double and nearly two blocks per game while hitting 50 percent from the floor. The 6’9” sophomore power forward is a huge body at 280 pounds, but has averaged 15 points and 12 rebounds per game in the Tar Heels’ last three contests. In the 75-64 win over the Florida Gators, Meeks had 18 points, 13 boards, a steal, two blocks and an assist. The downside, however, was that he had a very uncharacteristic six turnovers.
Brice Johnson, Justin Jackson and J.P. Tokoto round out the starting five. Tokoto is a bit of a stat stuffer, averaging a team-high 4.8 assists per game, 4.9 rebounds and 10 points per game. The 6’5” junior forward had 19 points and dished out eight assists last game against East Carolina, while playing just 26 minutes.
