College Basketball Betting Preview: A look at Minnesota-Wisconsin

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Wisconsin Badgers, Kohl Center, Madison, WI
Tuesday, December 28, 2010, 7:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Opening Line: Wisconsin -8
Current Line: Wisconsin -7 1/2
Opening Total: 127 1/2
Current Line: 125 1/2
Money Line: Wisconsin -375 / Minnesota +315

Jon Leuer and the Wisconsin Badgers take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers in the Big Ten opener for both teams. The Badgers are 7 1/2 point favorites at home.

These two long time rivals open Big Ten play against each other. Minnesota is 11-1 on the season and ranked #13 in the polls. The Gophers have one loss on the season to Virginia 87-79. They have quality wins over North Carolina and West Virginia in tournament in Puerto Rico in November. Wisconsin is 10-2 on the season and ranked #24 in the polls. The Badgers have losses at UNLV and to Notre Dame in a tournament in Orlando Thanksgiving weekend. They have quality wins over Boston College, North Carolina St, and Marquette on the season. Minnesota has won 5 games in a row straight up and Wisconsin is on a 6 game winning streak of their own. Minnesota hasn’t finished with a winning record in the Big Ten since 2005, but that could change this year. It won’t be easy in the rugged Big Ten which has 6 teams ranked in the top 25, and three in the top 15. Wisconsin has never lost a conference home opener under coach Bo Ryan. The Badgers are 9-0 but they have lost 3 straight to Minnesota, both straight up and ATS. Two of three meetings have gone under the total. Minnesota is 6-15 ATS in all road games the last three seasons.

The past two seasons Minnesota has gone 21-3 straight up in non-conference play only to go 9-9 in conference play both years. Minnesota definitely wants to improve on that record this season and has a very talented team to do just that. The Gophers are outscoring opponents 77-68 on the season. They are shooting 47.3% from the field and 34.7% from 3 point range. Minnesota struggles at the free throw line converting only 62.4% from the charity stripe. Opponents are shooting only 39.0% from the field against the Gophers. Four Gophers average in double figure scoring led by point guard Blake Hoffarber with 13.9 a game. Hoffarber also leads the team in assists with 5 a game. Forward Trevor Mbakwe scores 13.3 ppg and averages 9.8 rebounds a game to lead the team. Guard Devoe Joseph scores 11.8 a game. Center Ralph Sampson III scores 11.5 ppg and averages 6 rebounds a game. He leads the team in blocks with 2.2 a game. Guard Al golden is a very versatile weapon but he missed 5 games due to injury. he is averaging 9 ppg, 3 rpg, 3.7 apg, and leads the team in steals with 2.7 a game. Minnesota averages 40.9 rebounds a game and has a rebounding margin of +5.7. The Gophers average 18.6 assists and 14.8 turnovers a game. They also average 8.8 steals and 5.8 blocks a game.

Wisconsin is outscoring opponents 72-54 on the year. The Badgers are shooting 45.7% from the field and 38.2% from 3 point range. Wisconsin makes 79.1% of their free throws. Wisconsin is holding opponents to 38.8% shooting from the field. Forward Jon Leuer leads the team in scoring (19.8 ppg), rebounding (7.3 rpg), and blocks (1.8 a game). Point guard Jordan Taylor leads the team in assists with 4.8 a game and also scores 15.4 points a game. The Badgers averages 35.9 rebounds a game and have a rebounding margin of +7.6. They average 15.2 assists a game and only 9.1 turnovers a game. The Badgers average 4.2 steals and 4.3 blocks a game.

Minnesota has the edge in rebounding and depth, but Wisconsin is much better defensively. The disciplined Badgers do not turn the ball over that much. This should be a great game to open the conference slate for both of these teams that hope to play deep into March. The difference could come down to Minnesota’s inability to make free throws in clutch situations.