College Basketball Betting Preview: A Look at Marquette-Vanderbilt

Marquette Golden Eagles at Vanderbilt Commodores, Memorial Gym, Nashville, TN
Wednesday, December 29, 2010, 9:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Opening Line: Vanderbilt -7 1/2
Current Line: Vanderbilt -7
Opening Total: 145 1/2
Current Total: 147
Money Line: Vanderbilt -300 / Marquette +250

Jimmy Butler and Marquette travel to Vanderbilt in a non-conference battle. Vanderbilt is a 7 point favorite at home.

The 9-3 Marquette Golden Eagles travel to the 9-2 Vanderbilt Commodores. Vanderbilt is ranked #24 in the latest poll. This is the last non-conference game for Marquette of the season, but Vanderbilt plays Davidson before starting conference play next week. Marquette has three losses on the season to Duke, Gonzaga, and Wisconsin. Marquette does not have a quality win on the season. Vanderbilt has losses to West Virginia and Missouri on the season, and they have victories over Nebraska and North Carolina on the season. This will be a good test for both teams before getting into conference play. These teams have played 4 times in history and Marquette leads the series 3-1. However, they haven’t played since the 1974 NCAA tournament. Marquette is 10-2 ATS as an underdog in the last 2 seasons. The Eagles are 18-9 ATS when playing a team with a winning record the last 2 seasons. They are also 11-3 ATS versus teams scoring 77 points a game or more in the same span.

Marquette is outscoring opponents 82-66 on the season, but the schedule has been pretty soft so far. The Eagles lost to the 3 good teams they played and are beating up on cupcakes mostly. In fact other than the three losses Marquette has only played in-state rivals Milwaukee and Green Bay in games you can wager on. The rest were against non-board teams. The Eagles are shooting 49.7% from the field and 33.1% from 3 point range. Marquette is holding opponents to 41.5% shooting from the field. The Eagles shoot 69.9% from the free throw line. Guard-Forward Jimmy Butler is one of 4 Marquette players to average double figure scoring. Bulter averages 15.3 ppg to lead the team, along with 6.5 rebounds which also leads the team. Guard Darius-Johnson Odom averages 14.2 ppg. Forward Joe Crowder averages 11.8 ppg and 6.1 rebounds a game. Vander Blue leads the team in steals with 1.8 a game and also scores 10.3 ppg. Freshman center Chris Otule is averaging 1.7 blocks a game to lead the team. Reserve guard Reggie Smith has left the team, but he played less than 10 minutes a game and didn’t contribute much. The Eagles average 39.1 rebounds and have a rebounding margin of +6.3. They average 18.3 assists and 13.1 turnovers a game. Marquette averages 9.3 steals and 4.6 blocks a game. Marquette forces 17 turnovers a game on defense.

Vanderbilt is outscoring opponents 80-63 on the season. The Commodores have a pretty soft schedule as well, though not as disgraceful as Marquette’s. The Commodores are shooting 47.7% from the field and 38.7% from three point range. Vanderbilt is holding opponents to 37.6% shooting from the field. Vanderbilt is shooting 71.4% from the free throw line. Sophomore guard John Jenkins leads the Commodores in scoring with 18.2 ppg. Forward Jeffery Taylor scores 13.5 ppg. Center Festus Ezeli leads the team in rebounds with 7.4 a game and also scores 13.2 ppg. Point guard Brad Tinsley leads the team in assists with 4.9 a game and steals with 1.2 a game. He is also averaging 9.2 ppg and 4.5 rebounds a game. Starting forward Andre Walker missed the last three games with mononucleosis but will return tonight. Second leading rebounder Lance Goulbourne will miss his second straight game due to a suspension, but will return in the Commodore’s next game. Vanderbilt averages 40.3 rebounds and has a rebounding margin of +6.9. They average 15.3 assists and 15.1 turnovers a game. Vanderbilt forces 14.4 turnovers a game on defense. Vanderbilt averages 5.8 steals and 5.9 blocks a game.

Marquette’s soft schedule will come back to haunt them, if not in this game then when they begin play in the treacherous Big East. Both of these teams are comfortable playing in the 70’s. Both have pretty good defenses but that might be due to the mostly inferior opponents they have played so far. Both are decent at rebounding. This should be a good game, and Vanderbilt is very tough at home. I think that will be the difference between the two teams.