L.A. Dodgers (41-51) AT Arizona Diamondbacks (49-43)
July 15, 2011 at 9:40 PM
Opening Line: LA -125, ARI +105
Current Line: LA -129, +110
Opening Total: 8
Current Total: 8
SP: LAD- Clayton Kershaw; ARI- Joe Saunders
The Diamondbacks had been surprisingly good, while the Dodgers not so surprisingly bad, but they have begun to get things together lately. The Dodgers won four straight going into the All-Star break and allowed only one run in those four games. This, after a first half that included the club filing for bankruptcy and falling well below .500, something they may not be able to overcome without a long stretch of continued success.
The Diamondbacks had dropped 9 of their last 15 going into the All-Star break, but manager Kirk Gibson doesn’t see much reason for alarm, simply saying “they’ve (the players) just got to go and chill out.” If chilling out equals victory, they might have a step up with Clayton Kershaw on the mound, whose pitches are about as chilling as it gets.
Kershaw is 9-4 with a 3.03 ERA and he closed out June with two consecutive complete games. He pitched an inning of relief work in the All-Star game and he’s been nothing short of awesome against the Diamondbacks, with a 4-0 record since 2010 while only giving up 1 run over 20 2/3rds innings in his last 3 starts.
Two of the Diamondback’s better hitters in Stephen Drew and Justin Upton are combined 1 of 24 against Kershaw, but Kershaw hasn’t been as impressive on the road, where he is 2-3 with a 4.93 ERA. However, part of that can probably just be ascribed to an anomalous statistic, as there is nothing to suggest this season that Kershaw will fail to succeed tonight.
Joe Saunders takes the mound for the Diamondbacks. He is 6-7 with a 3.86 ERA this season and will be looking to win his fourth straight decision, after winning his first three on the road. Against the Dodgers, he is 1-3 with a 3.62 ERA, so some run support could do the trick for Saunders. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections predicted a 10-12 record with a 4.97 ERA. He has been much better through the first half of the season. Baseball Prospectus had this to say of Saunders:
“Saunders does not strike out many batters, is not known for pinpoint control, and is becoming increasingly expensive….He represents the type of pitcher a team lives with while under its control, not one sought to improve a rotation.”
Andre Ethier has been hot lately. In his last 14 games at Chase Field he has hit .379, well above his .311 for the season. In Sunday’s win, Ethier went 2 of 3 from the plate, with both hits having been home runs. He only has 9 home runs on the season, for good measure.
Some betting trends:
The Los Angeles Dodgers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games and the total has gone UNDER in 7 of their last 8 games. The total has gone OVER In 7 of their last 10 on the road and the Dodgers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games on the road. The Dodgers are 13-6 SU in their last 19 against the Arizona Diamondbacks and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of the last 5 against the Diamondbacks. The Dodgers are 9-4 SU in their last 13 road games against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are 1-4 SU in their last 5 home games and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of the last 5 games against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Diamondbacks are 6-13 SU in their last 19 against the Dodgers while they are 4-9 SU In their last 13 at home against the Dodgers.
Kershaw and Saunders are both good pitchers. Kershaw is arguably great, and Saunders is far better than billed by most. The total is set low at 8, with both pitchers’ sporting ERAs under four, so it’s a tough gamble, and I advise leaving it alone. The betting line for this one is also very close, but I do favor the slightly favored Dodgers simply due to the fact that Kershaw usually makes it pretty easy for the Dodgers to win.
