Cincinnati Bearcats at Louisville Cardinals
Friday, 10/15/10, 8:00 PM EDT, TV: ESPN
Opening Point Spread: Cincinnati -3.5
Current Betting Line: Cincinnati -3
Opening Total: 54.5
Current Total: 56.5
Current Moneyline: Cincy/-150/Louisville +130
Cincinnati is set to battle Louisville for the 50th time in the battle for the Keg of Nails, leading the all-time series 27-21-1, including a 12-9-1 advantage in games played in Louisville. First-year head coach Butch Jones is concerned that the Cardinals’ balance will present problems for his defense in this contest by saying, “We’ve got to take something away from them. We need to take great strides this week playing a very good football team.” Jones is 2-3 in his first season after leading Central Michigan to a 29-16 overall record and a 23-3 mark in league games. Tonight’s game serves as the Big East opener for the Bearcats, as they have won 12-straight conference games and two consecutive league championships. The team is 9-5 against the college football point spread versus Big East rivals over the last three years and the total is 8-6 Over/Under in those contests.
The Bearcats offense seems to finely be at full-strength with a healthy Isaiah Pead in the backfield, as he rushed for 197 yards in helping the team roll up 609 total yards of offense in last week’s win over Miami (OH). “It all stems from balance,” Jones said. “Any time a defense can make you one dimensional, it’s tough.” Cincinnati had 384 rushing yards last week, ranking ninth on the school’s all-time list. On the other side of the ball, the defense starts no seniors and features seven first-year starters, but ranks eighth in the country and leads the Big East in allowing just 84.8 rushing yards per game. Three of the five opponents have been held to under two yards a carry, including the prolific rushing attacks of Fresno State and Oklahoma.
Louisville comes in with a 3-2 overall record and enters its conference opener off a 56-0 blowout victory at home over Memphis last Saturday. “What we have done is broken this season into three phases,” first-year head coach Charlie Strong commented. “Phase one was Kentucky. Phase two was Eastern Kentucky, Oregon State, Arkansas State and Memphis. Now, we are into phase three.” The Cardinals put up 35 points and 380 yards of total offense in total offense in the first half to put together its most complete performance of the season. Jumping out early is nothing new for Strong’s squad, outscoring the opposition by a 109-48 margin in the opening 30 minutes this season. The team is 3-11 ATS versus conference opponents over the last three years and the total is 6-8 Over/Under in those contests.
The Cardinals have been led offensively by senior quarterback Adam Froman, who has been especially dominant over the last three games. He has thrown for 831 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging 277.0 yards through the air over that span. After struggling offensively in the first two games, Louisville is averaging 39.3 points per game and 534.0 yards of total offense since then. Defensively, the team has been getting after the quarterback, averaging 3.6 sacks per game that ranks third nationally. Creating pressure in this matchup will be imperative, especially considering that Cincinnati quarterback Zach Collaros threw only two incompletions in last year’s 41-10 Bearcats’ victory.
Bettors will note that the Bearcats are on a 4-0 ATS run in October and the under is 16-4-1 in their last 21 games during the month. Louisville is also a money-maker this time of year, producing a 7-3 ATS mark in October. Maddux Sports has released a college football pick on tonights game. We have crushed the books this year and will likely nail this game as well. Dont miss this winner or any of the weekend football picks on tap for clients.
