Tip off: Noon, Christmas Day, Dec 25th
Spread: NY -5
Total: 193.5
Odds taken from Bookmaker
The Vegas oddsmakers have perplexed me on this one.
They must really love Tyson Chandler, and really hate Brandon Bass. Why? Because all the Knicks did this off season was lose floor general and add the offensively challenged Tyson Chandler, while all the Celts did was exchange Big Baby for Brandon Bass. Yet, despite the fact that the Celtics swept the Knicks in 4 games in the 2011 playoffs, the Knicks are 5 point favorites.
I don’t think you could really ask for any more value on the Celtics at +5. Rajon Rondo is going to exploit the Knicks’ point guards on both ends of the floor and while Paul Pierce will have his hands full with Carmelo Anthony, Carmelo hasn’t exactly always had success against Pierce either. In game 3 of the 4 game sweep, Pierce put up 38 points on 14 of 19 shooting.
To be sure, Chandler strengthens the New York frontcourt, but I’m not certain it makes them an elite defensive team in any way whatsoever. Rookie Iman Shumpert will bring some defense, too, but Amar’e Stoudemire has always been a sub par defender and Carmelo Anthony is average at best.
So why are the Knicks favored?
For starters, they are at home. And the oddsmakers know that fans like to bet on home favorites, especially in nationally televised games. I think the line has been doctored to attract that portion of the bettors.
In the 2011 playoffs, Boston won the four games by an average of 14 points at home and only 2.5 points per game on the road. Still, they did win the games, and I just don’t see the collective roster changes being significant enough to warrant the dramatic shift in the lines.
Carmelo Anthony had 42 pts in game 2 and 32 pts in game 4, but struggled in games 1 and 3. In game 2, Carmelo added 17 rebounds, 5 offensive, to his 42 points, on 14 of 30 shooting from the floor. Such high usage is good for fantasy owners in leagues, but not so great for the New York Knicks. To be the kind of team that NBA opponents fear, they are going to have to diversify their offense and get their backcourt more involved. Toney Douglas, Iman Shumpert, and Landry Fields are going to be a tight three man rotation until Baron Davis returns from injury. Bill Walker will play some minutes at shooting guard, as well.
But not a lot changes from last year’s squad, and the Knicks will have Doulgas in the back court through 2013-2014 and Shumpert until 2015-2016 if they exercise team options every year. That’s not to mention the fact Stoudemire and Anthony are paired up through 2014-2015.
Things are less stable for the Celtics. Kevin Garnett’s contract expires after this season, and retirement is a possiblity, if not a probablity. Pierce will be around through 2013-2014, and Ray Allen is an expiring contract as well. WIth Jeff Green off the books, too, the only guy we really know for sure that will be on the Celtics beyond this season is Rajon Rondo. We can safely assume Pierce retires a Celtic but he is now 34 and if he plays out his contract he’ll retire at 37.
I guess given Pierce’s lack of reliance on athleticism, that isn’t too unreasonable a proposition.
This is all a digression from today’s game, though, and I still think the Celtics make the right choice. They are making one final run at a championship, and while losing Jeff Green will hurt to be sure, there is not “an ounce of quit” in any man on the Celtics roster and KG will keep them focused on both ends of the court, allowing them to beat a team they have already had a lot of success with. My bet is a Moneyline on the Celts.
