Boston Celtics at Miami Heat
American Airlines Arena – Miami, Florida
Tuesday, April 10, 2012, 7:00 pm eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Miami -7 1/2
Current Line: Miami -7 1/2
Opening Total: 183
Current Total: 183
Opening Money Line: Heat -300 / Celtics +250
Current Money Line: Heat -335 / Celtics +285
The 40-15 Miami Heat, coached by Eric Spoelstra, lead the Southeast Division by 7 games over Atlanta and Orlando. However, the Heat have bigger goals in mind, namely catching the Chicago Bulls for the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference. The Heat are currently 2 games behind the Bulls for that spot. The Heat have gone 5-2 in their last 7 games, including a 98-75 at home Sunday against Detroit. The two losses in that stretch occurred at Boston 91-72 April 1 and at home last Friday against Memphis. The Memphis loss snapped a 17 game home winning streak for the Heat.
Next up for the Heat is another game against the rival Celtics, this time in Miami. Boston is 32-24 this season under coach Doc Rivers. The Celtics lead the Atlantic division by 3 games over New York and Philadelphia, but Boston trails Indiana by 2 1/2 games for the #3 seed in the East. Boston is 7-2 in their last 9 games, including 2 wins in a row at Indiana 86-72, and Sunday at home against Philadelphia 103-79. This game against Miami is the sixth of seven games in a row for the Celtics against likely playoff teams, that started with the game against Miami at the beginning of the month.
This is the third meeting between the Heat and Celtics. Miami won at home two days after Christmas 115-107. The two teams will meet again in Boston in the second to last game of the season April 24. The Heat have won 2 straight against Boston in Miami.
Boston is outscoring opponents 92-90 this season. The Celtics are #3 in points allowed in the NBA. Boston is shooting 45.9% from the field and 36.6% from 3 point range. The Celtics make 78.1% from the free throw line. Boston is in the top 7 in the league in all three shooting categories. Boston is last in the league in rebounding averaging just 38.6 a game with a rebounding margin of -4.9. The Celtics average 23.7 assists, 14.9 turnovers, 7.4 steals, and 5.5 blocks a game. Boston is second in the league in assists. Celtic opponents are shooting 41.8% from the field and 29.8% from 3 point range. The Celtics lead the lead in both categories. Boston forces 15.6 turnovers a game.
Paul Pierce averages 19.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.6 assists, and 1.2 steals a game. Kevin Garnett averages 15.6 points, 8.2 rebounds to lead the team, 3 assists, and 1 block a game. Ray Allen averages 14.4 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.1 steals a game. He has been coming off the bench recently to provide an offensive spark. Forward Brandon Bass averages 12.2 points, and 6 rebounds a game. Rajon Rondo averages 12.1 points, 4.9 rebounds, 11.2 assists, and 1.8 steals a game. He is second in the league in assists, and leads the Celtics in steals. Small forward Mickael Pietrus is out indefinitely with a concussion. Center Jermaine O’Neal leads the Celtics in blocks with 1.7 a game, but he is out indefinitely with a wrist injury.
Miami is outscoring opponents 100-93 this season. The Heat are #4 in scoring and #6 in points allowed. The Heat are shooting 47.4% from the field and 36.8% from 3 point range. Miami is second in field goal percentage and is #6 in 3 point percentage. The Heat are #7 in free throw percentage making 77.4% from the line. Miami averages 41.7 rebounds a game with a rebounding margin of +1.5. The Heat averages 20.5 assists, 15 turnovers, 9.2 steals, and 5.4 blocks a game. Miami opponents are shooting 42.9% from the field and 36.7% from 3 point range. The Heat are #5 in field goal percentage but are #27 against the 3 point shot. Miami forces 17 turnovers a game.
Miami forward LeBron James averages 26.8 points, 8 rebounds, 6.4 assists, and 1.9 steals a game. He is third in the NBA in scoring, and leads the Heat in assists, rebounds, and steals. Dwayne Wade averages 22.6 points, 5 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 1.7 steals, and 1.3 blocks a game to lead the team. He is probable with an ankle injury. Chris Bosh averages 18 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 1.8 assists a game. Point guard Mario Chalmers averages 9.9 points, 2.8 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 1.5 steals a game.
Miami is 27-28 ATS and the total is 23-30-2 this season. Boston is 28-26-2 ATS and the total is 24-29-3 this season. The home team is 7-2 ATS recently in this series, and the over is 5-2, including 4-0 in Miami. The Celtics are 6-0-1 after a straight up win of 10 points or more, 6-0 on one day rest, 5-0-1 after a straight up win, after a cover, and against Eastern Conference teams, 4-0-2 against teams with winning records, 4-0 against Southeast teams, 4-1-1 in road games against teams with winning home records, 3-0-1 in road games, 2-0-2 as an underdog, 15-5-2 overall, 3-1-1 as a road underdog, 6-2 after scoring 100 points or more, 2-5 in Tuesday games, and 2-6-1 as a road underdog of 5-10-5 points. The Heat are 4-10 ATS against teams with winning records, 1-4 in Tuesday games, after a cover, and after a straight up win of 10 points or more, and 1-5 on one day rest.
Miami is tough at home, but the Celtics are playing their best basketball of the year just in time for the playoffs. I think 7.5 is too many points for Miami against a team that crushed them in Boston 9 days ago. The Heat lost by 19 in that game, but at one point in the fourth quarter, The Celtics were up by 30 points or more. Miami wins but Boston keeps it close.
