There is nothing that causes more confusion than flat betting. Lots of people say that they flat bet on baseball, yet there are all sorts of different ways that people bet while calling it flat betting. This was reinforced to me yet again the other day when someone sent me a link to a long forum discussion about different kinds of flat betting. Everyone had a different way that they flat bet, and as often happens in forums everyone was sure that they were right. It got me thinking because, well, I flat bet and I think I do it the best way. Or rather, there isn’t a best way – I just use the one that I think works best. I’ll let you decide for yourself, though – here’s a breakdown of four of the ways people flat bet:
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- The most ridiculous thing I have read in a long time – SI.com has an article in which Kobe Bryant tells the world that he has no desire the Lakers. What a moron. Sure, he’s the best player in basketball and all, but did he seriously need to say this. We got to spend months listen to him whine and call Mitch Kupchak an idiot and demand a trade and deny it and everything else that made him so ridiculous, but now that he is winning all is forgiven, he is happier than he has ever been, and Kupchak has gone from a F to an A-Plus in his book. It’s not a wonder that people are getting sick of athletes. I’d still bet on his team winning at least two playoff series. I just won’t be thrilled for him when he does.
- I’m sure he’s not that concerned about it, but I owe LeBron James an apology. I was pretty frank about my dislike of his team’s chances against the Wizards. I thought that Washington was rising while Cleveland was sputtering, and that James wasn’t man enough on his own to carry his team on to the next round. It’s too early to say for sure, but it seems pretty clear that I’m a moron. At least on this front. Maybe more. James took over the game, his teammates elevated their games, and the Cavs cruised to the easiest possible 30 point win. James was just one board away from a triple double. The change by the Cavs is sudden and clear – they had covered just three times in their last 12 games, but they have covered easily in both playoff games – tonight they only had a 28.5 cushion over the spread. I can take some consolation at least in the fact that I’m not the only one that wasn’t buying in – after Cleveland won the first game by seven as four point favorites they were reduced to 1.5 point favorites in the second game.
- The Red Sox are as under the radar as they can be (which obviously isn’t very under the radar), so they are running away from their division, and the league at this point, with less fanfare than I might have expected. After all, the Yankees are still the team in the news every day. Make no mistake, though, Boston is running away. They have won nine of 10, they’ve beat the Yankees three of five times, and they have been nicely profitable both at home and on the road. The scary thing for everyone who isn’t Boston is that this thing is reasonably sustainable. Kevin Youkilis is overachieving at the plate, but not as badly as David Ortiz is underachieving, so there is still a net gain to be had there. Dustin Pedroia is advancing nicely, Jacoby Ellsbury looks comfortably on his way to being a star, and Sean Casey has found new life. THe pitching is fine and isn’t pitching out of it’s mind, so it can mostly keep it up, too. In other words, the Yankees and everyone else had better start working to catch up to Boston, because they aren’t likely to fall back to the group.
As the weekend ends, here are the sports betting tidbits that caught my eye:
- What a strange story out of Toronto. Frank Thomas was off to a lousy start, but he led the team in home runs and RBIs last year, so it seems very bizarre that he got released. The story is that he and the team mutually decided that he would move on after he was told his playing time would be reduced. I’m not buying it. There has to be something more to it for it to have gone down this quickly. Regardless, someone will likely snap up Thomas pretty quickly – he’s old and on the decline, but he is still better than lots of guys on lots of rosters.
- Roger Federer finally won a tournament. It took a shocking amount of time for him to get the first one for the year. It will be very interesting now to see when the next one comes – it will be a good indicator of whether his game is back in form, or if the year is destined to be a disappointment.
- It was a little surprising that the 76ers beat Detroit. It’s even more surprising that they not only won, but were significantly the better team. Detroit’s next game will be crucial (there’s an understatement)
- Danica Patrick finally won a race. Does that mean we don’t have to hear about her constantly anymore? Dare to dream.
- If I had been pressed to pick a team to emerge from the NHL’s Western Conference playoffs I would have had to have had a good reason to pick against Anaheim. I can’t even begin to understand, then, how they managed to get tossed by Dallas in the first round, and how they looked so incredibly lousy in their last game. That’s a teamthat is going to go through a pile of changes in the offseason.
- If the first playoff game is any indicator then the Pau Gasol trade could go down as perhaps the best in NBA history by the end of the playoffs.
- I don’t know what is wrong with Barry Zito, but it is something big. The guy has a world of talent, but he just isn’t right. In fact, he’s a mess. He blew up again today at home against the Diamondbacks – three earned runs and one more unearned in six innings. Of most concern he walked five and only struck out two. You can blame some of his woes on the fact he plays for a lousy team, but by far the bigger issue is that he just isn’t very good. He’s a space cadet, so this can’t be good on his mind, and I can’t be confident in his ability to overcome the problem. Maybe it will turn around, but it is much harder to find a precedent for that than it is to find one for him being done for as an elite pitcher.
- Memphis has lost a lot with the departure of Derrick Rose and probably Chris Douglas-Roberts and the graduation of Joey Dorsey. Things just got a whole lot easier for them today, though, with the signing of another one-and-done superstar. Tyreke Evans is a shooting guard out of Philadelphia who was the MVP of the McDonald’s All-American game this year. He is pretty much a perfect fit for Calipari’s system, and he will make it unpleasant to play in Conference USA for another year.
- Alfonso Soriano is on the DL after straining his calf making a catch. That’s not good news for the Cubs – at least theoretically. Soriano has been brutal so far this year, but he is much better than he has been playing and should be due for an upward adjustment.
- It is curious that Tiger hasn’t really used his knee injury as an excuse for his flat showing at the Masters. It was obviously serious if he went ahead and had the surgery so soon afterward, but I wonder how much of an impact it really had? He didn’t look like he had a bad knee, but he didn’t look right, either. We’ll have to wait for a month or more to get our first clue, I guess.
- I was more than a little surprised that Keno Davis bolted Drake so soon to take over at Providence. That is a step forward, but he’s not stepping into a program in great shape, and he had a family link at Drake and a good deal of success in a short time. Maybe he just knew when to get out when he was ahead. It will be very interesting to watch to see whether he just caught lightning in a bottle, or if he is the real deal. If it is the latter then Providence will be back in the coaching market in just a couple of years.
- Carmelo Anthony is a moron. He had his worst game of the year on Sunday – 11 points on 3-for-14 shooting. He chose the best and most logical way to get over the embarrassment of the situation – he went out and got hammered and drove home. He obviously got busted, and now he will have a May 14 court date hanging over him if and when his team secures their playoff spot. The Nuggets were a team that could have done some damage in the playoffs, but this kind of distraction is pretty much the worst thing possible for them. It will be very interesting to watch how they react going forward. I can’t decide if it is a good or a bad thing that they don’t play until Wednesday, and then will have days off until the playoffs start.
- It’s far to early to say for sure, but maybe, just maybe, the Tigers have remembered how to hit. They exploded for 11 runs tonight, including innings of four and six runs. That’s the best offense output of the season, and it came from the right place – huge games from Ordonez, Cabrera and Guillen in the middle of the lineup. It’s just one game, but at least it’s a start. The downside is that they allowed nine runs, so the defense was terrible, but they can only really do one thing at a time until they get the ship righted.
- The Ottawa Senators are truly terrible. They have lost three straight games to the Penguins in their playoff series, and they have not given us a single reason to think that they are going to win one before it is over. It is almost incomprehensible that a team could be the best team in the league for the first month of the season and have more talent than the all-star team has had some years, yet they barely made the playoffs and would have been better off if they hadn’t.
Things catching my eye today:
- I know I have been writing about my hometown a lot recently, but, well, I can, so you’ll just have to deal with it. I was as shocked by the Calgary Flames as I have ever been in a lifetime (most of it, anyway) of watching them. They fell down 3-0 in the first three and a half minutes against San Jose on Sunday night. Normally, the team would just quit when that happens. They didn’t. They tightened up, fought back, and won it 4-3 with a late goal. I never would have said this a week ago, but the Flames are worth a serious betting look. That kind of heart can be deadly in the playoffs.
- The Spurs got smoked by the Lakers this afternoon. They have also been beaten badly by the Suns and the Jazz in the last ten days. Not that it makes me sad in any way, but this does not look like a strong, confident team going into the playoffs.
- Jimmie Johnson won at Phoenix. It was the first win for Hendricks this year after they won 18 last year. I expect this to open the floodgates for wins for the team. They clearly have caught up in testing, and they are not the kind of team that will tolerate losing.
- Congrats to Trevor Immelman, but is it just me or was this a pretty flat Masters? It didn’t seem to have a lot of spark or interest, and it is telling that Tiger can play as badly as we have seen him play in a long while and still end up in second. With all due respect to Immelman, if a guy like him can win it wire-to-wire then it isn’t as good as it can be.
- Michael Beasley is announcing his decision on his future tomorrow. If he stays in school I will chop of my right foot and eat it raw.
- David Ortiz was benched on Sunday after starting the season 3-for-43. Ouch. Big Papi can’t be a very happy guy right now, and he is kinda scary when he is happy, so he would be terrifying when he is mad.
- The game that Ortiz missed was not a pitcher’s duel. Dice-K looked pretty rough, allowing four earned runs in five innings. He was the reincarnation of Cy Young compared to the Yanks’ Phil Hughes. The young prodigy got dinged for seven runs in two innings. If both of those teams lost every night I would be a happy guy.
The sports info that has caught my eye today:
- The Calgary Flames, my home town team (unfortunately), managed to do something last night in the second game of their playoff series against San Jose that I didn’t think was possible – they got outshot 27-3 in the second period. I am a bit surprised that either 27 shots in a period or three is possible. Disgusting. They have allowed more than 80 shots in the first two games. Not going to win a lot of games that way.
- It will be very interesting to see what Tiger Woods does this weekend. 14 holes into his second round he is still at par. That’s eight strokes off the lead. He’s not out of it by any means, but he certainly needs to start looking far less mortal pretty soon. Since we are talking about my hometown today, Calgary resident Stephen Ames is sitting in sixth and playing very well.
- The Orioles blew both ends of a doubleheader last night. I hope they enjoyed their time at the top, because the fall is going to be swift and painful.
- I was happy to see the Nuggets beat the Warriors yesterday to take the lead in the race for the playoffs. It’s not just that I like the Nuggets better – they should be more interesting to watch, and bet on, in the playoffs, too.
- Felix Hernandez goes tonight for the Mariners. He gets my vote as the unluckiest pitcher in the league so far this year – he has been brilliant and has nothing to show for it. He has allowed no earned runs over 15 innings in two starts, but run support and relief have been non-existent. He’s at home against the Angels tonight.
- New Orleans and the Lakers play tonight in a game that could decide the MVP. As much as I like Chris Paul, I think he would have to have a truly massive game, because I don’t see how voters won’t give it to Kobe otherwise – it is almost impossible to believe he has never won one, and this is the chance to fix that. Paul will have lots more opportunities.Unless the Hornets crush the Lakers and shut down Kobe.
I’m battling a bit of a basketball hangover after the end of the tournament, so my mind isn’t really into the sports scene today. I’ll be back in full force tomorrow, and I have a full slate of baseball content on tap for the next few weeks, but I can’t let today go by without commenting on a few things that have caught my eye: Continue reading “Post-Basketball Doldrums”
The betting-related sports news that is catching my eye in five different sports
Baseball – Pitcher Johnny Cueto of Cincinnati struck out ten in seven innings and only allowed one hit and one earned run to lead his team past Arizona. This guy is ridiculously good, and he should present decent value until the public starts to figure that out.
This is the second week in a row that I have written this same type of article. It’s almost as if it is a recurring feature or something.
Here’s what is bouncing through my mind on this hump day:
1. Memphis is still favored? – I am shocked. It’s not that I don’t think that they should be – I have them narrowly favored to win it all. It’s just that I never thought that the public would go this way. It goes to show just how short the attention span of people is – a week ago Memphis was doomed and UCLA was the power.
Continue reading “10 Questions Bouncing Through My Mind – Redux”
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