2011 Bridgeport Education Holiday Bowl
Qualcomm Stadium – San Diego, California
California Golden Bears vs #24 Texas Longhorns
Opening Line: Texas -3 (-115)
Current Line: Texas -4 (-105)
Opening Total: 47
Current Total: 47 1/2
Opening Money Line: Texas -150 / California +130
Current Money Line: Texas -165 / California +145
Both Texas and California are 7-5 this year as they face off in the 2011 Holiday Bowl. The Golden Bears of the Pac 12 are coached by Jeff Tedford. Cal started off the season 3-0 but then lost 3 in a row. The Bears finished up the season 4-2 to become bowl eligible. Cal has wins over Fresno St, Colorado, Utah, Washington St, Oregon St, and Arizona St. The Bears have losses to Washington, Oregon, USC, UCLA, and Stanford. The Bears are 10-9-1 in Bowl games all time. Cal lost to Utah 37-27 in the 2009 Poinsettia Bowl the last time the Golden Bears played in a bowl game.
The Texas Longhorns of the Big 12 are coached by Mack Brown. The Longhorns started off the season 4-0 but then lost 2 in a row. Texas went 3-3 down the stretch, but lost 3 of their last 4 games. Texas has wins over Rice, BYU, UCLA, Iowa St, Kansas, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M. The Longhorns have losses to Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Missouri, Kansas St, and Baylor. Texas is 25-22-2 all time in Bowl games. Texas missed a bowl game last year for the first time since 1998. Texas lost to Alabama in the BCS National Championship 37-21 in 2010. Texas leads the series 4-0 against California, but the teams haven’t played since 1970.
The Golden Bears are averaging 418.4 total yards and 29.8 points a game. Cal is averaging 251.5 passing yards and 166.9 rushing yards a game. Cal has 19 turnovers and has allowed 22 sacks. The Bears are 74/186 on third and fourth down conversions, and 48/54 scoring in the red zone with 33 touchdowns. Cal is holding opponents to 339.4 total yards including 130 rushing yards and 209.4 passing yards a game. Bear opponents are scoring 24.4 points. The Bears have forced 23 sacks and 32 turnovers. Cal opponents are 69/185 on third and fourth down conversions, and 32/40 scoring in the red zone with 21 touchdowns. Cal is averaging 8 penalties a game for 74 yards. The Bears have 3 defensive/special teams touchdowns.
Cal quarterback Zach Maynard is 212/372 passing (57% completions) with 2,802 yards, 17 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He also has 76 carries for 1,270 yards and 9 rushing touchdowns. Running back Isi Sofele has 232 carries for 543 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 6 catches for 33 yards. C.J. Anderson has 68 carries, 343 yards, and 8 touchdowns, plus 7 catches, 186 yards, and a touchdown. Receiver Keenan Allen has 89 catches for 1,261 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Marvin Jones has 54 catches, 758 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Anthony Miller has only 23 catches but 3 of them went for touchdowns. Receiver Michael Calvin is probable with a leg injury. Kicker Giorgio Tavecchio is 35/41 on extra points and 19/22 on field goals with a long of 54 yards. Fullbacks Will Kapp and Eric Stevens are both out for the season.
Texas is averaging 404 yards and 28.7 points a game. The Longhorns average 193.6 passing yards, and 210.4 rushing yards a game. Texas is #19 rushing in the country. Texas has 26 turnovers and has allowed 26 sacks. Texas is 95/210 on third and fourth down conversions, and 36/49 scoring in the red zone with 25 touchdowns. The Longhorns allow 315.3 yards and 23.2 points a game. Texas gives up 211.7 passing yards and 103.7 rushing yards a game. The rush defense is #11 nationally and the over all defense is #15. Texas has forced 25 turnovers and 23 sacks this season. Longhorn opponents are 60/184 on third and fourth down conversions, and 37/43 scoring in the red zone with 21 touchdowns. Texas has 4 defensive/special teams touchdowns this season, but has allowed 4. Although 3 came in the Oklahoma game.
Texas quarterbacks David Ash and Case McCoy have split the snaps this year. McCoy is 88/144 passing (61.1% completions) for 1,034 yards with 7 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Ash is 85/151 passing (56.3% completions) for 937 yards, 3 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and he has a rushing touchdown and 103 yards on the ground. Running back Malcolm Brown has 159 carries, 707 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Brown is probable with a toe injury. Joe Bergeron has 69 carries, 454 yards, and 5 touchdowns. He is also probable with a hamstring injury. Foswhitt Whittaker had 66 carries, 386 yards, and 6 touchdowns, and 16 catches, 145 yards, and a touchdown catch. Whittaker also had 2 kickoff returns for touchdowns. However, he is out for the season with a torn ACL. D.J. Monroe and Jeremy Hills will get most of the carries if Brown and Bergeron can’t go.. Fullback Cody Johnson has 5 touchdown runs. Receiver Mike Davis has 45 catches, 609 yards, and a touchdown. Jaxon Shipley has 40 catches, 593 yards, and 3 touchdowns, along with 11 carries for 39 yards. Shipley also has thrown 2 touchdown passes. D.J. Grant and Blaine Irby each have 3 touchdown catches. Receiver John Harris is questionable with a foot injury. Kicker Justin Tucker is 41/41 on extra points, and 17/20 on field goals with a long of 52 yards. Besides the injuries to the running backs and wide receivers, Texas has injuries to three safeties and an offensive lineman.
Texas is 6-6 against the spread and the total is 5-6-1 this season. California is 7-5 ATS and the total is 5-7 this season. The Golden Bears are 4-0 ATS overall, and on grass, 4-1 against Big 12 teams, 3-8 in December, and 1-5 after scoring 40 points or more in the last game. The Longhorns are 4-1 ATS as a favorite, 7-15 as a favorite of between 3.5 and 10 points, 6-13 after a straight up loss of 20 points or more, 4-9 in non-conference games, 2-5 in December games, 7-18-1 against teams with winning records, 3-8 in bowl games, 1-4 as a bowl favorite, 0-6 as a bowl favorite of between 3.5 and 10 points, and 0-6-1 in neutral site games, including 0-3-1 as a favorite.
Texas has struggled to score this season even before the injuries to the running backs. Even if Brown and Bergeron play, we don’t know how effective they will be against a strong Cal rush defense. I don’t see a lot of points in this game, and I think Cal can pull off the upset in a close defensive struggle.
