Mountain West Championship Game
San Diego St Aztecs vs BYU Cougars
Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV
Saturday, March 12, 2011, 7:00 pm Eastern, TV: Versus
Opening Line: San Diego St -1
Current Line: San Diego St -3 1/2
Opening Total: 140 1/2
Current Total: 140 1/2
Money Line: SDSU -165 / BYU +145
These two Mountain West rivals have been ranked in the top 10 for a large portion of the year. They have a combined record of 61-5 and tied for the Mouantain West regular season title. Despite the best efforts of New Mexico and UNLV it almost seems like destiny that BYU and San Diego St meet for a third time. The winner of this game will most likely be a 2 seed in the NCAA tournament and has an outside shot of being a #1 if things work out. San Diego St is 31-2 overall and ranked #6 or #7 depending on which poll. They finished the MWC regular season with a 14-2 record. The Aztecs only two losses of the season were to BYU. BYU won both games by 13 points, 71-58 in Provo January 26 and 80-67 in San Diego February 26. The Aztecs were never really in either game. The Aztecs have won 4 straight games since then including beating Utah 64-50 in the quarters and escaping with a 74-72 over UNLV in the semifinals. D.J. Gay hit a jumper from about 15 feet with 4.9 seconds to play to win the game. BYU is 30-3 overall and 14-2 in conference. They are the number 1 seed in the tournament based on their sweep of the Aztecs. They are ranked #8 in both polls. BYU has two losses to New Mexico on the season. BYU finally beat New Mexico for the first time in 3 years last night in the semis 87-76. National player of the year favorite Jimmer Fredette went off last night for 52 points, a school and tournament record. Amazingly, Fredette did that on only 37 shots and only attempted one free throw in the game. BYU struggled for a win against lowly TCU 64-58 in the quarters.
BYU leads the overall series against SDSU 48-22. This will be the last time the two teams play as conference rivals unless they meet in the NCAA tournament as BYU moves to the West Coast Conference next year. The Cougars would love to grab a MWC tournament title on their way out the door. BYU has won 6 of the last 7 versus the Aztecs and is 5-2 ATS in those games. Four of those 7 have gone under the total.
San Diego St is pretty healthy right now. The Aztecs are led by Kawhi Leonard. He is averaging a double double with 15.3 points, and 10.8 rebounds to lead the team in each category. He also averages 2.5 assists and leads the team in steals with 1.5 a game. Forward Malcolm Thomas averages 11.6 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.2 assists and leads the team in blocks with 2.1 a game. Senior point guard D.J. Gay is averaging 11.6 points, 2 rebounds, and 3.2 assists to lead the team and 1.1 steals a game. Billy White is averaging 9.6 points, 3.6 rebounds. and 1.6 assists Chase Tapley is averaging 8.2 points, 2.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1.3 steals a game. San Diego St is outscoring opponents 72-59 on the season. The Aztecs shoot 46.8% from the field and 34.4% from 3-point range. Aztec opponents are shooting 39.8% from the field. SDSU makes 69.6% of their free throws. The Aztecs average 37.3 rebounds a game and have a rebounding margin of +6.8. San Diego St averages 13.6 assists and 11.2 turnovers a game. SDSU forces 12.8 turnovers a game on defense. The Aztecs average 6.2 steals and 4.7 blocks a game.
BYU starting center Brandon Davies was suspended for the rest of the regular season a couple of weeks ago for violating the school’s strict honor code. He was the third leading scorer for the Cougars and the leading rebounder. BYU has also been playing with out reserve forward Chris Collinsworth since conference play began. He is out for the season with a knee injury. Collinsworth averaged only 16 minutes a game and scored 5.9 points a game, but he was one of the Cougar’s top rebounders with 5.6 a game. His little brother Kyle also plays for the Cougars. BYU guard Jimmer Fredette is the team leader. Fredette is averaging 28.5 points a game to lead the nation in scoring, 3.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists to lead the team, and 1.4 steals a game. He is shooting 40.7% from 3 point range and 89.9% from the free throw line. Guard Jackson Emery averages 12.7 points a game, 3.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and leads the team in steals with 2.8 a game. Noah Hartsock averages 8.6 points, 6 rebounds to lead the team, and also leads the team in blocks with 1.6 a game. BYU is outscoring opponents 83-67 on the season. The Cougars shoot 45.6% from the field and 36.6% from 3-point range. Cougar opponents are shooting 41.2% from the field. BYU shoots 75.9% from the free throw line. BYU averages 38.8 rebounds a game and has a rebounding margin of +3.6. The Cougars average 14.8 assists and 11.1 turnovers a game. They force 14.7 turnovers a game on defense. BYU averages 8.1 steals and 4.2 blocks a game.
BYU dominated San Diego St during the regular season but that was with Davies patrolling the lane and defending against San Diego St’s dynamic front court of Thomas, Leonard, and White. I think this will be closer than the two previous games, but San Diego St has no answer for Jimmer Fredette. BYU wins a close game.
Our college basketball handicappers are red hot this season. Don’t miss out on any more winners in 2011.
