Horizon League Championship Game
Butler Bulldogs at Milwaukee Panthers, U.S. Cellular Arena, Milwaukee, WI
Tuesday, March 8, 2011, 9:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Butler -3
Current Line: Butler -3
Opening Total: 137
Current Total: 134
Money Line: Butler -155 / Milwaukee +135
Butler came within one missed shot of winning the National Championship last year. This year, they haven’t quite lived up to to the expectations from last year. Butler was ranked in the top 15 in the pre-season poll, but was unranked by December. Tonight they can secure a spot in the bracket with a win in the Horizon League Championship game. It won’t be easy as they have to travel to Milwaukee to take on the #1 seeded Panthers. Milwaukee, Butler and Cleveland St all tied for the conference regular season title but Milwaukee got the number one seed based on a 3-1 record against the other 2 teams. Butler is 22-9 overall and Milwaukee is 19-12. All three teams were 13-5 in conference. Both teams are projected to make the NCAA tournament regardless of who wins tonight, but it is much better to be certain of getting a bid than to have to hope the committee chooses you. Butler has won 8 straight games including a 76-68 home victory over Cleveland St in the semifinals Saturday. Milwaukee has won 10 of their last 11 games, including their last 3 in a row. Milwaukee beat Valparaiso 70-63 at home Saturday in the semifinals. Both Butler and Milwaukee recieved byes to the semifinals.
Milwaukee swept the season series against Butler winning 76-52 in Milwaukee January 3 and 86-80 in overtime in Indianapolis January 23. Butler leads the overall series against Milwaukee 30-12. Butler has won 4 of the last 7 games, but Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS spread in those games. Four of those seven have gone under the total. Milwaukee is 19-10 ATS as an underdog the last 2 seasons. Milwaukee is 13-6 ATS against conference opponents this season. Butler is 12-5 ATS versus teams with winning records this season.
Butler has no significant injuries right now. Butler is led by the dynamic duo of forward Matt Howard and guard Shelvin Mack. One of the two leads the Bulldogs in every statistical category. Howard is averaging 16. points, 7.9 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.1 steals a game and 0.6 blocks a game. Mack averages 15.3 points, 4.6 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 0.9 steals a game. Both are shooting more than 34% from 3 point range, and over 78% from the free throw line. Butler is outscoring opponents 73-65 on the season. The Bulldogs are shooting 44.6% from the field and 36.1% from 3-point range. Bulldog opponents are shooting 43.2% from the field. Butler shoots 72.8% from the free throw line. Butler averages 35 rebounds a game and has a rebounding margin of +3.6. Butler averages 12.6 assists and 11.2 turnovers a game. They force 12.6 turnovers a game on defense. Butler averages 5.9 steals and 1.6 blocks a game.
Milwaukee is also healthy right now. Forward Anthony Hill is averaging 15.6 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 1.4 assists a game. He leads the team in points and rebounds. Guard Tone Boyle averages 13.2 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.1 assists a game. Forward Tony Meier averages 11.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 1.7 assists. Kaylon Williams averages 8.5 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 5.5 assists a game to lead the team. Ryan Allen leads the team in steals with 1.1 blocks a game. No Panther averages more than 0.6 blocks a game. Milwaukee is being outscored on the season 70-69.7. The Panthers are shooting 43.3% from the field and 35.6% from 3-point range. Panther opponents are shooting 45.2% from the field. Milwaukee makes 65.1% of their free throws. The Panthers average 34.1 rebounds a game and have a rebounding margin of +0.7. They average 12.9 assists and 13.8 turnovers a game. They force 12.9 turnovers a game on defense. Milwaukee averages 4.9 steals and 2.1 blocks a game.
Butler is only favored in this game because of their well-deserved reputation. Milwaukee swept Butler and certainly has the talent to win again. I like Milwaukee to win a close game and pull off the mild upset.
Our college basketball handicappers are red hot as post-season play begins around the country. Don’t miss out on anymore winners in 2011.
