San Francisco Giants (23-19) AT Los Angeles Dodgers (20-24)
May 19, 2011 at 10:10 PM EST
Opening Moneyline:  LA -130, SF +110
Current Moneyline:  LA -121, SF +110
Opening Total: 6.5
Current Total: 6.5

SP:  SF- Madison Bumgarner, LA- Chad Billingsley

The Giants have finally found a way to beat the Dodgers; at least this season.  They’ve won the last 4 against the Dodgers and will seek their 5th straight tonight.  This all comes after losing 4 of the first 5 meetings of the season.

Prior to their 8-5 win last night, the Giants had dropped two straight.  Cody Ross hit a three run homer in the 9th to seal up the victory.  “We definitely needed this one,” Ross said. “We just keep battling and grinding and don’t give up.”

The Dodgers will send Chad Billingsley to the mound.  Billingsley has a 2-3 record with a 3.36 ERA.  Last year was a rebound year for the former Giants ace, as he improved his ERA by roughly half a run from his 2009 campaign (though his W-L record remained the same at 12-11).  Last season he cut his walk and homer rates significantly, and after the All-Star break he gave up only one home run in NINETY SIX innings.  Billingsely finished 16th among NL qualifying pitchers in Support-Neutral Winning Percentage.  It was the lack of offensive production that hurt Billingsley’s record, not poor pitching.

Billingsley looks to win his fourth straight home start and will look to better his 2.56 ERA  in his eight career starts against the Giants at Dodger stadium.  Billingsley allowed 5 hits in 6 innings in a 4-3 victory over the Giants on April 1st.

The Giants will send Madison Bumgarner to the mound.  Bumgarner is 0-6 this season but has a relatively respectable 4.25 ERA.  Bumgarner, like Billingsley, has received poor run support.  He’s only given up 5 runs over his last 4 starts, and yet he has lost all three decisions in those starts.  “He’s throwing the ball well enough to get a win,” Giants manager Bruce Bochy said. “But we’re just having a hard time finding a way to get him one.”

Against the Dodgers, Bumgarner is 1-1 with a 5.06 ERA.  Last season, Bumgarner got off to a rough start due to his fastball lacking speed, but as the year went on, the speed returned and he began to pitch much better.  He got sent to the minors but was recalled in June.  He posted a 1.18 ERA in his last six starts and struck out 32 batters in 32 innings, while allowing only 4 walks and one homer.

In his only start of the World Series, he pitched eight shutout innings.  His PECOTA projection for the year is for an 11-8 record with a 3.84 ERA.  It would represent a regression from last year’s ERA but he is expected to pitch 150+ innings this year, while last year he logged only 111 at the major league level.

Some betting trends:

San Francisco is 8-3 SU in their last 11 games and the Giants are 2-4 SU in their last 6 road games.  The Giants are 4-2 SU in their last 6 against the Dodgers and the total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco’s last 6 games against the LA Dodgers.

The total has gone UNDER In 4 of LA’s last 5 games and the Dodgers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.  The total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 at home and the Dodgers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 home games.  The total has gone OVER in 5 of the Dodgers’ last 6 games against the San Francisco Giants, while the Dodgers are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games against the Giants.

It must be frustrating for Madison Bumgarner to continue to pitch well and record losses, and yet that is what MLB oddsmakers predict yet again for this matchup.