Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL
Sunday, December 5, 2010, 4:15 pm EST, TV: FOX
Opening Line: Falcons -2.5
Current Line: Falcons -3
Opening Total: 45
Current Total: 44.5
Money Line: Falcons -145 / Bucs +125
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-4) have beaten the spread in their last five games, but another cover here against the Atlanta Falcons (9-2) will not necessarily keep them in the race for a playoff spot. The Buccaneers are 3-2 straight-up during that stretch and coming off a 17-10 loss at Baltimore last week. The other loss came at Atlanta (-3) a month ago in the midst of a five-game winning streak for the Falcons, who currently own the top record in the NFC.
Tampa Bay returns home after playing four of five on the road, and the team has won its last two games at Raymond James Stadium against Carolina and St. Louis by a combined 16 points. Another setback here against Atlanta could prevent the Bucs from making a run at the postseason depending on what other teams in the conference do this week. They nearly beat the Falcons in the first meeting earlier this season but were stopped at the 2-yard line on a 4th-and-1 play with 2:37 remaining in an eventual 27-21 loss.
Atlanta will play the first of three straight road games at Tampa, something the team has not done since 2002. The Falcons improved to 6-0 at home this season with a 20-17 win over Green Bay last week behind 198 passing yards and a touchdown from quarterback Matt Ryan and 110 rushing yards and another score from running back Michael Turner. They improved to 19-1 at home with Ryan under center and 15-0 when he has a passer rating over 100.
In the last meeting with Tampa Bay, Turner rushed for 107 yards on 24 carries and scored two touchdowns while Ryan threw for 235 yards and one touchdown. The Bucs could have trouble containing Turner again, as they have the NFL’s sixth-worst run defense, giving up 132.5 yards per game on the ground. They are also 0-4 against teams with winning record after losing to the Ravens.
Offensively, Tampa was held to a season-low 263 yards by Baltimore and will need to get quarterback Josh Freeman going again. Freeman has passed for more than 189 yards just once in the last four games, although he has thrown five touchdowns with no interceptions in the past three. He threw for 189 yards with two touchdowns and two picks in the first meeting with Atlanta.
The Buccaneers have still won 12 of the last 17 meetings, going 6-1 against the spread in the last seven. The UNDER is 4-1 in the past five games between the teams, but the OVER has cashed in five of the last six games overall for the Falcons.
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