Bovada Odds:
Anthony Davis (7/4)
76.7 percent of GMs polled on NBA.com chose Anthony Davis to win the ROY. He’s the franchise player in New Orleans and will be given a chance to learn the NBA game at the power forward slot. That will give him time to adjust as he continues to grow. Davis is still maturing physically, and when Dwight Howard came into the league he was a skinny power forward as well.
After a few years, Davis will fill out and be one of the top three centers in the league, on par with Andrew Bynum and Dwight Howard. That’s why he’s such a heavy favorite to win the ROY. It’s hard to advocate any pick other than Davis in a rare “sweepstakes” year for NBA draft classes.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (9/1)
I’m not sure whether it is good or bad that Kidd-Gilchrist plays for the worst team in the league. On one hand, there is the opportunities that will arise from having so little offensive fire power surrounding him. If MKG wants to average 20 points per game, he’ll have the opportunity to do so.
It’s just not clear whether or not he is that kind of player. Is his ceiling more Luol Deng or is it more Scottie Pippen (No idea why I compared him to two Bulls players)? He thinks the latter, but even so, I don’t know if he will take the initiative to put up the kind of stats necessary to take the ROY in this draft class.
Bradley Beal (12/1)
Bradley Beal will be sharing the rock with John Wall this year, but Wall is out the first part of the season. That will give Beal a chance to shine and show his game before he has to contend with Wall dominating the basketball.
The hope is that after a while, Wall will yield a lot of the ball handling responsibilities to Beal, who has been favorably compared to both Ray Allen and Dwyane Wade. The bar is set that high. If Beal performed to the level that Wade did as a rookie, he would win this award.
Jonas Valanciunas (12/1)
From what I have watched of Valanciunas, he is like a Euro Garnett. I don’t know if he is quite as good as KG, but his game is reminiscent of the Big Tickets, in a number of ways. He blocks shots with both hands, is very mobile, and will be able to play both power forward and center, much like Garnett (though KG is versatile enough he once played SF, too).
He’s on a talented Raptors team that may make some noise, so if Toronto surprises in the East, Valanciunas may surprise and win this award. He is a member of the 2011 NBA Draft class but took an extra year to start his career in the NBA due to his Euro contract.
Thomas Robinson (10/1)
Thomas Robinson stood out in the NCAA championship game as the player that had got the Kansas Jayhawks to the championship game. But he wasn’t enough for the Jayhawks to handle Anthony Davis, and I don’t think he can touch Davis for this award either.
He’s a great talent and will be a fixture in the Kings’ frontline for years to come, but that’s just it—he’s a fixture, while Davis is a focal point.
That is what is going to make it hard for guys like Robinson, Valanciunas, and Harrison Barnes (who I give even less of a chance) to win the award. They aren’t the featured guy or even No. 2 options offensively.
Damian Lillard (5/1)
Six of the 30 GMs polled by NBA.com picked Damian Lillard to win the ROY over Anthony Davis. That’s not bad for a No. 6 overall pick, and if the draft were done over, it’s almost a certainty that Lillard would go higher than sixth. He has franchise talent and was impressive during the preseason.
Lillard will be a great duo with LaMarcus Aldridge, and the Trail Blazers have the makings of something special—again. Lillard’s success will have Blazers fans forgetting about the tragic injuries of Brandon Roy and Greg Oden, and if Lillard plays to his high upside, he could win the ROY award. In fact, 5/1 is a very good value.
