Kevin Durant 27.5 pts
UNDER. I expect Kawhi Leonard to do a job on Durant. Durant averages 26.0 ppg over his career against the Spurs, and will have trouble with the San Antonio defense that he hasn’t encountered yet in this year’s playoffs.
Kevin Durant 8 rebs
OVER. Durant has been hitting the boards hard. He is averaging 11.5 rpg over the last two, and the Thunder are going to need him to rebound a lot to counter San Antonio’s strong rebounding.
Kevin Durant 3 asts
Leaving this alone. He’s averaging 3 apt over the last two, and hasn’t had a big assist game since early in the Lakers series. I don’t see much value here.
Russell Westbrook 23.5 pts
OVER. What Durant is going to struggle with will be Westbrook’s boon. I don’t see Parker being able to slow Westbrook much and expect the Thunder point guard to have a big series.
Russell Westbrook 5 asts
UNDER. He’s going to be more offensive minded this series, and he has only had 5 assists or more once in the last four games.
Russell Westbrook 5 rebs
UNDER. He’s averaging only 2.5 rpg over the last two games and though the Thunder will need him on the boards, he’s going to have trouble penetrating the defense to get to the offensive boards.
James Harden 16 pts
OVER. Harden has been playing very well and Manu Ginobili, while a good pass lane player, is not the greatest on ball defender and Harden has show he can be very crafty.
Serge Ibaka 6.5 rebs
Leaving this one alone. Ibaka has been inconsistent on the boards and I’m not sure how he will react to having someone like Tim Duncan boxing him out.
Tim Duncan 17.5 pts
OVER. He’s been over this for the last four games and I expect Duncan to step up on the big stage. He still has more left than most people think.
Tim Duncan 9.5 rebs
Leaving this one alone. He’s averaging 11.0 rpg over the last 2 games, but has only had 10 rebounds or more in 3 of the 7 games this year.
Tony Parker 19.5 pts
OVER. Parker has been over this figure in 2 of the past 3 games, and Westbrook is going to wear himself out offensively, rendering his defense susceptible to dribble penetration — Parker’s speciality.
Tony Parker 7.5 asts
UNDER. He’s been under in 3 of the last 5 games.
Manu Ginobili 13.5 pts
UNDER. He’s been under the last three games and was under in all the games in the playoffs except on May 7th and May 15th, but that was the Clippers and Jazz. Also, Thabo Sefolosha is a great defender, and Harden isn’t too bad himself.
Manu Ginobili 4.5 asts
Leaving this one alone, too. He’s been right on the mark the last three games and I don’t see any betting value here.
