Minnesota Timberwolves AT San Antonio Spurs
January 9th, 2011 at 7:05 PM EST
Opening Line: San Antonio -12
Current Line: San Antonio -11.5
Opening Total: 211
Current Total: 210
Opening Moneyline: San Ant -1000 / Minn +700
Current Moneyline: San Ant -1075 / Minn +725
Things continue to go from bad to worse for Minnesota. They’re riding yet another losing streak of 3 games and have won but 2 of their past 10, to give them one of the four worst records in the league at 9-28. Kevin Love and Michael Beasley have been playing amazingly well, especially Love, but he made it clear he has no intentions of resigning if it doesn’t look like the team can be a winning basketball team. Who can blame him; winning 24% of the games can’t be fun, even when you are leading the league in rebounding by a wide margin. Perhaps even worse than their overall play is the fact that they are winning just 10% of their road games and sit at 2-18 on the road.
The Spurs are on the opposite end of the spectrum. Though they have won “just” 7 of their last 10 (you can say that when their win pct is .833), they have a 30-6 record, good enough for a 2 game lead over Boston for the best record in the league. They’ve changed their style from a grind it out half court team to a run and gun mode and it seems to have worked. It’s atypical of Popovich to take such an approach but with speed demons Tony Parker and George Hill at the point it makes sense.
It really does look bleak for the Timberwolves in all respects. They’ve lost 15 straight to the Spurs. The Spurs have been playing “comeback” basketball, frequently entering the fourth quarter with a big defecit and rallying to win. Kurt Rambis, coach of the Timberwolves commented on it:
“That’s what good teams do. Good teams have the confidence that they’re going to come back and win. They know how to dig themselves out of holes.”
Some betting trends:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 6 games and they are 1-4 SU in their last 5. They are 1-13 SU in their last 14 road games and have lost their last 15 to the Spurs. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 6 in San Antonio and they are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games against the Spurs.
San Antonio is 15-3 SU in their last 18 games and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 home games. They are 5-0 SU in their last 5 home games.
Key Matchups:
Kevin Love vs. Tim Duncan
One up and coming star, one fading. Kevin Love probably won’t have the career Duncan has had in terms of accolades, but at this point in their careers, he is the better player, averaging greater than 20 points a game and over 15 boards a game. Perhaps most impressively the 6’10” power forward is hitting 43% from behind the arc, making him a more deadly marks man than most of the guards in the NBA. Duncan is still effective, but now plays less than 30 minutes a game, as Popovich is resting him for when it counts — the NBA playoffs. Duncan is blocking more shots than in years’ past but it is largely due to the fact that there are more shots being taken with the tempo being faster in Spurs game. You can expect Love to get the better of Duncan tonight, but will it matter to Love when his team loses by double digits?
Michael Beasley vs. Richard Jefferson
Jefferson, like Duncan, is in his twilight years against another up and comer. Beasley looked like he had all the makings of a colossal bust, even being called a “pothead” by his former GM, but has since turned things around to resurrect his young career. He’s averaging over 20 points a game this year and is beginning to look like the player many thought he would be when he left Kansas State three years ago and was drafted 2nd overall.
The Spurs will likely go on to win their 16th straight against the Wolves tonight. 84% of Yahoo pundits have picked the Spurs and it’s actually hard to see why it isn’t 100%. I guess there must be a few lone Wolves fans out there stuffing the ballot box!
