Cleveland Cavs AT Chicago Bulls
January 1st, 2011 at 7:00 PM EST
Opening Line: Chicago -13.5
Current Line: Chicago -13.5
Opening Total: 189.5
Current Total: 189.5
Opening Moneyline: Chicago -1600 / Cleveland +1000
Current Moneyline: Chicago -1518 / Cleveland +1132
Tonight’s NBA pick for the Cavs and Bulls renders Chicago 13.5 point favorites. It’s easy to see why. Chicago has won their last 3 games and 8 of their last 10, while Cleveland has dropped 5 straight and lost 9 of their last 10. What’s worse for Cavs fans is that they haven’t even been close. They have a -9.1 point differential, scoring a mere 93.7 a game and giving up 102.8. Chicago as you would expect from a 21-10 team has a +5.2 differential, playing excellent defense, giving up 94.1 a game and scoring 99.4.
Cleveland sports a horrible 3-14 road record and Chicago has only lost 3 home games all year out of 16 games. Cleveland couldn’t even hang with another bad team last game, losing to Charlotte (11-20) by 9. Chicago has been beating up on the horrible teams, but their last game against a +.500 team, New York, they lost by 8. But you can’t fault them for hitting an easy spot in their schedule, and they’ve looked great with Derrick Rose and Boozer connecting well, and winning in spite of Joakim Noah being out with a thumb injury. Cleveland has 3 starters with nagging “day to day” injuries in Daniel Gibson, Mo Williams, and Anderson Varejao. Missing two of these three players, or even one, will cripple Cleveland as they just don’t have the depth to sustain injuries.
Some betting trends:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland’s last 5 games and they have lost all 5 of them, as previously alluded to. They are 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 road games and the total has gone OVER in 7 of their last 10 on the road. Chicago has won 4 of the last 6 meetings and the total has gone OVER in 10 of the Cavs last 14 games in the United Center.
Chicago has won 12 of their past 14 home games and 8 of their last 9.
Key Matchups:
Derrick Rose vs. Mo Williams & Ramon Sessions
Derrick Rose will punish either or both of Cleveland’s point guards tonight. Sessions has a better chance at staying with Rose as he is quicker than Mo Williams, but that really isn’t saying much. Rose is explosive and is having a phenomenal year, looking like a legitimate MVP candidate. He’s cooled of late after a ridiculously good November, but is still averaging 23.9 points on the year and 8.5 assists (good enough for 7th in the NBA). Mo Williams missed last game with his hip flexor injury and wasn’t playing particularly impressive ball before the injury, having scored less than 20 for four consecutive games. He needs to put up 20+ for Cleveland to have any chance at all of winning games.
Carlos Boozer vs. Antawn Jamison & J.J. Hickson
Boozer is difficult for most power forwards to defend, never mind bad defenders like Jamison and Hickson. He’s having a typical “Boozer year” putting up 20.6 points per game and grabbing 9.7 boards a night. He’s needed more heavily on the boards with Noah out and he has responded. Grabbing 15, 9, 11, 19, 10, 11 rebounds in his last 6 games. He has also scored 20 or more in 8 of his last 9 games and 30 or more in 2 of them. Jamison has started to play better of late but still not well enough to keep the Cavs in games. Hickson was in the doghouse for a while but has recently started getting some minutes again. His size could give Boozer more problems than Jamison, but neither really has what it takes to stop an all star like Boozer.
Tonight’s game probably won’t be very close as indicated by NBA oddsmakers setting the spread at 13.5 points. Chicago is very difficult for a good team to beat at home, nevermind a struggling and depleted Cavs squad.
