Detroit Pistons AT Miami Heat
Jan 28, 2011 at 7:30 PM EST
Opening Line:  Miami -10.5
Current Line:  Miami -10.5
Opening Total: 190.5
Current Total: 189.5
Opening Moneyline:  Mia -675 / Det +550
Current Moneyline: -750 / Det +550

The Heat are coming off a rough defeat to the Knicks, scoring only 88 points against a team that gives up 105.9 on average.  While part of it can be credited to an excellent effort on the part of the Knicks, there’s really no excuse to score under 90 when you have two of the best five players in the game on a team in Miami.  They’ll seek to rebound from the loss at home against the Pistons tonight.  Miami is 16-5 at home and Detroit is a dreadful 5-19 on the road, but the Heat will be on the second night of a back to back, and if they have tired legs, the Pistons could capitalize on it.

The Pistons have recently received strong play from former All-NBA performer Tracy McGrady.  While he’s still just a shadow of the player he once was, he is averaging 5.25 assists over the last 4 games and is averaging 17 points per game over the last two games.  Still, despite his improved play, the Pistons have dropped three of their last five.  They had a baffling game against Phoenix, which they won by one point, 75-74.  What’s perplexing is how the Pistons, and the Suns for that matter, could score so few points in a game that is predicated upon offense when a team plays the Suns.

Some betting trends:

Detroit is 3-15 SU in their last 18 road games and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 6 on the road.  They are 1-6 SU in their last 7 against the Heat and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 against Miami.  The total has gone UNDER in 16 of the last 23 meetings between the teams and the total has gone UNDER in 9 of the last 12 games in Miami.  Detroit is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 on the road against the Heat.

Miami is 19-6 SU in their last 25 games and 1-5 SU in their last 6 games.  They are 10-2 SU in their last 12 home games and 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 at home.  The total has gone OVER in 5 of their last 7 at home.

Key Matchups:

Tayshaun Prince vs. LeBron James

Prince is widely regarded as one of the league’s best wing defenders and he’ll use his lengthy wingspan and frame to try to frustrate LeBron on the perimeter.  Expect LeBron to attempt to post up Prince and use his superior strength to muscle to the basket.  In the last game against the Pistons, however, Prince held James to 18 points, though he did hit 8 of his 15 field goals.  If he can play ball denial defense and keep James on the perimeter, he could have a great night against James.  Problematic for the Pistons is the fact that Prince doesn’t produce a lot of scoring himself, as he scored only 8 in the last matchup between the teams.  But that isn’t really what they expect from Prince and his suffocating defense could make the difference.

Rodney Stuckey vs. Dwyane Wade

Stuckey has the perfect body to cover someone like Wade.  He’s quick enough and strong enough to counteract Wade’s strengths.  But that isn’t to say he’ll stop him.  Wade scored 34 last night against the Knicks and if his legs are fresh enough he could do it again.  He only played 18 minutes in the last meeting between the teams, so there really isn’t an accurate barometer to judge his performance against the Pistons this season, but for his career against Detroit he is averaging 21.3 points per game, 6.5 assists, and 5.0 rebounds.  That’s the kind of all around line that has potential triple double written all over it.

With the Heat coming off a tough loss last night, expect to see them sluggish out of the gates.  It will be up to the role players on the Heat to provide the necessary spark if Wade and LeBron come out tired, but the Pistons have a great shot at covering the spread, even if it is on the road.