Sacramento Kings AT San Antonio Spurs
Mar 11, 2011 at 8:30 PM EST
Opening Line:  San Ant -11.5
Current Line:  San Ant -11.5
Opening Total: 208
Current Total: 210
Opening Moneyline:  San Ant -825 / Sac +625
Current Moneyline:   San Ant -850 / Sac +670

The Kings just can’t manage to get a victory.  They’ve dropped 4 straight and they’ll take their dreadful 7-22 road record into San Antonio, where the Spurs are 30-3 this year.

The Spurs received a pleasant surprise when they got Tony Parker back after he missed only 2 games with a calf injury.  The injury was supposed to keep him out a full month, and the Spurs are very pleased to have him back, especially considering the way he dominated in a 111-104 victory over the Pistons.

“There were a couple times in the game where he took over,” Spurs guard Manu Ginobili said.  “I remember one play that (coach Gregg Popovich) told me to go sub in, but he was playing so well that he told me to wait two more minutes and see what happens, so he finished the quarter and in the fourth quarter he just finished the game, so he was huge.”

The victory allowed the Spurs to become the first team in the league to clinch a playoff birth, but Ginobili knows not to take any game for granted.  “Hopefully we face the Kings the same way we did (Wednesday),” Ginobili said. “Starting hard, moving the ball and playing good ‘D’ solid. … We know that when you give a team confidence and they start playing relaxed and they don’t have anything to lose, they can get you in trouble and you can get up losing a game that you shouldn’t. So hopefully we start hard and play our usual style.”

Some betting trends:

The total has gone OVER in 11 of Sacramento’s last 12 games and they are 1-6 SU in their last 7 on the road.  Sacramento is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 on the road and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Spurs.  The total has gone OVER in 4 of Sacramento’s last 5 games against the Spurs and Sacramento is 0-5 SU in their last 5 against San Antonio.  Sacramento is 0-5 SU in their last 5 against the Spurs in San Antonio and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road against the Spurs.  The total has gone OVER in 7 of Sacramento’s last 10 games on the road against the Spurs.

San Antonio is 19-6 SU in their last 25 games and they are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games.  The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio’s last 5 games and it has gone OVER in 4 of their last 6 at home, as well.  San Antonio is 23-1 SU in their last 24 games at home and they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 at home.  The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio’s last 5 games against Sacramento and they are 5-0 SU in their last 5 against the Kings.  San Antonio is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home against the Kings and the total has gone OVER in 7 of San Antonio’s last 10 games against the Kings.  San Antonio is 5-0 SU in their last 5 at home against the Kings.

Key Matchups:

DeMarcus Cousins vs. Tim Duncan

Youth vs. Experience….Cousins has been absolutely dominant of late.  Over his last 4 games he is averaging 23.8 points per game and 11.8 rebounds per game.  Duncan could slow him down some, however.  Last game against the Spurs, Cousins went for only 7 points and 10 boards.  San Antonio’s fast paced game doesn’t cater to Cousins, but the increase in shot attempts may result in a high point total, even if he is inefficient.  Cousins 3.1 turnvers in only 27 minutes a game is among the worst in the NBA.

Duncan’s numbers are way down this year.  The 13.3 points per game he averages is the worst of his NBA career and his rebounds are down to a career low 9.1, as well.  Most of it can be attributed to the fact that for the first time in his career he is seeing less than 30 minutes a game, as Spurs coach Gregg Popovich prefers to rest his starters over the long NBA season to keep them fresh for when it counts — the playoffs.

Beno Udrih vs. Tony Parker

Parker absolutely punished the Pistons and things may be quite the same tonight.  Udrih is not known to be a good defender and is way too slow afoot to cover someone with Parker’s speed.  The result will be a lot of dribble penetration and easy looks for the San Antonio bigs, which will spell the demise of the Kings.

The Kings are big underdogs in this game, and given the fact it is in San Antonio – they should be.  They have lost 10 straight to the Spurs and will struggle to keep this one close, unless San Antonio takes the Kings lightly, which is unlikely to happen given the core group of veteran leadership on the Spurs team.