Cleveland Cavs AT Boston Celtics
Jan 25, 2011 at 7:30 PM EST
Opening Line:  Boston -18
Current Line:  Boston -17
Opening Total: 211.5
Current Total: 210.5
Opening Moneyline: Bos -5500 / Cle +2750
Current Moneyline:  Bos -6300 / Cle +2100

Cleveland has now lost 17 straight and there really is no light at the end of the tunnel.  They are going to be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs soon enough and very few players can be said to be any part of a future plan for the team.  J.J. Hickson is developing into a fine player and Varejao is young enough and decent, but the two best players – Mo Williams & Antawn Jamison – are old and Jamison has already said he may retire after this year to spend more time with his kids.  Daniel Gibson could eventually be a fine combo guard, but Cleveland is going to need to hit it lucky with the lottery and possibly bring in Kyrie Irving to take over the point guard duties.  Or go another way with it, but a top 3 lottery pick is a near certainty at this point.

Boston is not focused at all on the draft this summer but is instead focused on making another championship run.  They can’t seem to get everyone together at full strength, and they may never be able to, but even if they are missing one head of their four headed monster at center, or even two, they will still be a very formidable team up front.  Garnett is having his best season since 07-08 when the Celts won their last championship.  Rondo is looking like a legit leader, and Pierce is as good as any one at closing out games and hitting big shots.

Some betting trends:

Cleveland is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games.  They are 5-13-2 ATS in their last 20 road games, and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 6 road games and they are 0-5 SU in their last 5 on the road.  Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against the Celtics and the total has gone OVER in 8 of their last 12 against the Celtics.  Cleveland is 2-12 SU in their last 14 road games in Boston and the total has gone OVER in 4 of the Cavs’ last 6 games against the Celtics.

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston’s last 7 games and they are 5-1 SU in the last 6 games.  The Celtics are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games and the total has gone OVER In 7 of their last 8 at home.  Boston is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 at home.  Boston is 4-1 SU in their last 5 vs. the Cavs.  The total has gone OVER IN 8 of Boston’s last 12 against Cleveland.  The Celtics are 6-11-1 ATS in their last 18 home games against the Cavs and the total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston’s last 6 home games against the Cavs.

Key Matchups:

Antawn Jamison vs. Kevin Garnett

Jamison is the best player left on the Cavs after the defection of that guy who used to wear 23.  He still has the ability to have big games, even if he isn’t quite the 20 pt+ 8 rb+ guy he was in Washington.  His field goal percentage is 2.1% below his career average, and he’s playing the least amount of minutes he has since his bench role in Dallas in 03-04.  Garnett is obviously not the player he once was in Minnesota, either, for that matter.  While still effective, Garnett used to be an offense initiator instead of a role player on that end of the court.  He’s still a defense presence, but he’s no longer the havoc wreaker he was in his prime when he swatted shots and stole the ball with high frequency.  He’ll give Jamison problems and I don’t expect Jamison to score above his season average of 17 tonight.  I’ll get to that more later if I do tonight’s prop bets…

Mo Williams vs. Rajon Rondo

Mo Williams is another strong player who is not what he was in his prime.  In his best years, in Milwaukee, he averaged 17+ ppg and 6+ apg.  While he is scoring significantly less, his assists are actually up to a career high 7.1.  It’s nothing compared to Rondo’s league leading 13.5 assists per night, but it is good enough for 13th best in the NBA.  Rondo has a speed advantage against almost everyone, but has a pretty sizeable one over Mo Williams, too.  He’ll probably get a lot of rebounds tonight since Mo Williams will have trouble keeping a body on Rondo and preventing him from getting all the mid range rebounds.

Tonight’s game is not predicted to be a close one, but any NBA team can beat any other on a given night, and if Boston falls asleep at the wheel, Cleveland could steal the game.  They aren’t going to lose their next 40 games, so wins will have to come here and there.