Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills, Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Sunday, November 28, 2010, 1:00 pm EST, TV: CBS
Opening Line: Steelers -6
Current Line: Steelers -6.5
Opening Total: 42
Current Total: 45.5
Money Line: Steelers -265 / Bills +225
The Buffalo Bills (2-8) will try to win three games in a row on Sunday against a Pittsburgh Steelers team that is 7-3 but has not been able to accomplish that feat since quarterback Ben Roethlisberger returned from a four-game suspension. In fact, Roethlisberger’s Steelers (-6.5) have only managed to win consecutive games once with him under center following a 3-0 start without him.
The Bills have won back-to-back games after starting the season at 0-8, and they are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five with three-point losses in each of the first three games during that run. Buffalo’s 49-31 victory was more than impressive considering the team trailed 31-14 at halftime and rallied back with five unanswered touchdowns, including three by wide receiver Steve Johnson.
Buffalo quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick enjoyed another outstanding game against the Bengals with 316 passing yards and four touchdowns. Fitzpatrick has averaged 273.2 passing yards in the last five games with 11 touchdowns and seven interceptions during that stretch. Running back Fred Jackson is also coming off his two most productive games of the year, rushing for 249 yards and scoring four touchdowns.
While Jackson could struggle against Pittsburgh’s top-ranked run defense – allowing just 63 yards per game on the ground – Fitzpatrick will have an opportunity to expose the team’s secondary. The Steelers are giving up 239.1 yards per game through the air, which is good enough for 22nd in the NFL.
Meanwhile, the Bills have had a difficult time defensively stopping the run while their pass defense ranks ninth overall, allowing 208.9 yards per game. They are the worst in the league at trying to stop opponents from running the ball, surrendering 163.5 yards per game.
That key weakness for Buffalo could give Pittsburgh running back Rashard Mendenhall the perfect chance to break out after being held under 100 yards in seven straight games. Mendenhall has combined for 109 yards in the last two games combined following his second-best game of the year, a 99-yard effort in a 27-21 win at Cincinnati in Week 9.
The Steelers are coming off a 35-3 rout of Oakland at home last week but have not covered two straight with Roethlisberger this season. The OVER is 3-1 in their road games, but the UNDER has cashed in the last two home games for the Bills (including the game at Toronto). Pittsburgh has covered the last eight meetings with Buffalo, going 7-1 straight-up in those games.
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