Wisconsin Badgers at #25 Illinois Fighting Illini
Assembly Hall – Champaign, Illinois
Sunday, January 22, 2012, 2:00 pm Eastern, TV: Big Ten Network
Opening Line: Wisconsin -1
Current Line: Wisconsin -1
Opening Total: 108 1/2
Current Total: 110
Opening Money Line: Wisconsin -115 / Illinois -105
Current Money Line: Wisconsin -125 / Illinois +105
Though Illinois is 4-2 in the Big Ten and Wisconsin is 4-3, both teams are right in the thick of the conference race. There is a 3 way tie between Ohio St, Michigan, and Michigan St at 5-2, but three other teams are within a game of first including the Illini and Badgers. Wisconsin is 15-5 overall and Illinois is 15-4 this season as the two two rivals meet Sunday in Champaign. Illinois leads the series 110-75, including 68-21 at home. Wisconsin has won 8 of the 12 against Illinois, but they split the series last year with each winning on their own home court.
Wisconsin is coached by Bo Ryan. The Badgers have losses to North Carolina, Marquette, Iowa, Michigan St, and Michigan. The Badgers have won 3 straight games since a 3 game losing streak dropped the Badgers to 1-3 in conference play. Wisconsin has wins over Colgate, Wofford, Bradley, BYU, Green Bay, UNLV, Milwaukee, Nebraska twice, Purdue, and Northwestern Wednesday night 77-57.
Illinois is coached by Bruce Weber. The Illini have losses to UNLV, Missouri, Purdue, and Thursday night at Penn St 54-52. Illinois has wins over Loyola-Illinois, Richmond, Illinois St, Maryland, Gonzaga, Cornell, Minnesota, Northwestern, Nebraska, and Ohio St.
Wisconsin is outscoring opponents 66-49 this season. The Badgers are number one nationally in points allowed & opponent’s field goal percentage and #5 in opponent’s 3 point percentage. Badger opponents are shooting 35.4% from the field, and 26.5% from three point range. The Badgers are shooting 43.5% from the field, and 37.3% from 3 point range. Wisconsin makes 71.7% of their free throws. The Badgers average 35.5 rebounds a game, with a rebounding margin of +4.3. Wisconsin averages 12 assists, 9 turnovers, 5.7 steals, and 3.6 blocks a game. Wisconsin forces 11.5 turnovers a game.
Wisconsin guard Jordan Taylor averages 13.9 points, 4.0 rebounds, 4.4 assists, and 1 steal a game. Taylor leads the Badgers in scoring and assists. Jared Berggren averages 10.6 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.2 steals, and 1.5 blocks a game. He leads the team in steals and blocks. Ryan Evans averages 9.9 points, 6.8 rebounds to lead the team, 1.3 assists, 1 steals, and 1.3 blocks a game. Ben Brust averages 9.6 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 1.1 assists a game. The top 9 scorers for the Badgers all shoot over 30% from 3 point range.
Illinois is outscoring opponents 68-61 this season. The Illini are shooting 45.1% from the field, including 33.1% from 3 point range. Illinois makes 71.7% of their free throws. The Illini average 34.2 rebounds a game and have a rebounding margin of +4.1. Illinois averages 13.2 assists, 14.2 turnovers, 5.8 steals, and 4.7 blocks a game. Illini opponents are shooting 40.6% from the field, including 35.8% from 3 point range. Illinois forces 14.5 turnovers a game on defense.
Illinois guard Brandon Paul averages 14.2 points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 1.6 steals a game. He leads the Illini in scoring, assists, and steals, and is making 35.5% of his three pointers. Meyers Leonard averages 13.1 points, 7.6 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 2.1 blocks a game. He leads the team in blocks and rebounds. D.J. Richardson averages 12.6 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 2.1 assists a game. He is shooting 35.5% from 3 point range. Sam Maniscalco averages 9.3 points, 2.4 rebounds, and 2.9 assists a game. Guard Devin Langford is out indefinitely with a broken finger.
Illinois is 8-9 against the spread and the total is also 8-9 this season. Wisconsin is 11-6 ATS and the total is 6-11 this season. The favorite is 6-2-1 ATS recently in this series, and 4 of the last 5 played at Illinois have gone over the total. The Badgers are 9-3 ATS after a straight up win, 1-4 in Sunday games, and overall. The Illini are 4-0-1 ATS as an underdog of 6.5 points or less, 5-1 after a straight up loss, and at home against teams with losing road records, 5-2 as an underdog, 2-5 at home, 2-8 as a home underdog, 2-8 as a home underdog, 1-6 in Sunday games, and 2-12 as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less.
When any team in a conference can beat any other team on a given day, it makes for some exciting, unpredictable basketball. It also makes it difficult to handicap those games. Wisconsin is the hotter team, but so was Ohio St 3 weeks ago, but Illinois shocked them at home. I don’t really like either side in this game but I like the under, as this could be played in the 40’s.
