#20 Indiana Hoosiers at #22 Michigan Wolverines
Crisler Center – Ann Arbor, Michigan
Wednesday, February 1, 2012, 6:30 pm Eastern, TV: Big Ten Net
Opening Line: Michigan -3 1/2
Current Line: Michigan -3 1/2
Opening Total: 138
Current Total: 137
Opening Money Line: Michigan -165 / Indiana +145
Current Money Line: Michigan -165 / Indiana +145
Both Indiana and Michigan had brilliant non-conference records, but have struggled once they got into the meat grinder that is the Big Ten conference. Parity rules this conference, as 8 of the 12 teams are within 3 games of first and all teams have at least 2 losses.
Indiana started off the season 15-1, but has since gone into a 2-4 slump recently. The Hoosiers are 17-5 overall, and 5-5 in the conference. Indiana beat Iowa 103-89 Sunday. Michigan started off 13-3, but have alternated wins and losses since then to fall to 16-6 overall and 6-3 in conference. Michigan lost at first place Ohio St 64-49 Sunday. The Hoosiers lead the series 101-55 against the Wolverines, but Michigan is 42-36 at home in the series. The two teams played earlier this year in Bloomington with Indiana grabbing a narrow 73-71 win. Hoosier forward Christian Watford had 25 points in that contest, but missed a critical free throw with 2.9 seconds left that would have given Indiana a 3 point lead. Michigan missed a desperation heave at the buzzer to give Indiana the win.
Indiana is coached by Tom Crean. The Hoosiers have additional wins over Evansville, Butler, NC State, Kentucky, Notre Dame, Ohio St, and Penn St twice. Indiana has losses to Michigan St, Minnesota, Ohio St, Nebraska, and Wisconsin. All losses were on the road except for Minnesota.
Michigan is coached by John Beilein. Michigan has additional losses to Duke, Virginia, Iowa, and Arkansas. The Wolverines have wins over Memphis, UCLA, Iowa St, Oakland, Penn St, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan St, and Purdue. Michigan is undefeated at home this season.
Indiana is outscoring opponents 80-66 this season. Indiana is #14 nationally in scoring. The Hoosiers are shooting 50.1% from the field, and 43.8% from 3 point range. The Hoosiers are #3 in field goal percentage and #2 in 3 point percentage. Indiana makes 73.8% of their free throws. The Hoosiers average 34.5 rebounds a game, and have a rebounding margin of +3.2. Indiana averages 14.2 assists, 13.3 turnovers, 7.4 steals, and 3.6 blocks a game. Indiana opponents are shooting 42.4% from the field and 32.7% from 3 point range. The Hoosiers force 15.0 turnovers a game on defense.
Indiana has 4 players averaging double digit scoring. Freshman forward Cody Zeller averages 15.2 points, 6.1 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.5 blocks a game. He leads Indiana in scoring rebounds, and blocks. Watford averages 12.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 1.3 assists a game. He makes 46.7% from 3 point range. Jordan Hulls average 11.9 points, 2.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 1.1 steals a game. He makes 48.4% of his three point attempts. Victor Oladipo averages 10.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.7 steals a game to lead the team. Will Sheehey averages 9.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 1.1 assists a game. He is shooting 44.4% from 3 point range. Verdell Jones III averages 8.2 points, 2.9 points, and 3.6 assists a game to lead the team. Daniel Moore is questionable with a hand injury. Maurice Creek is out for the season with a torn Achilles’ tendon.
Michigan is outscoring opponents 68-61 this season. The Wolverines are shooting 45.9% from the field, including 34.3% from 3 point range. Michigan makes 70.7% of their free throws. The Wolverines average 32.8 rebounds a game and has a rebounding margin of +1.8. Michigan averages 13.2 assists, 11.4 turnovers, 4.9 steals, and 2.3 blocks a game. Wolverine opponents are shooting 42.1% from the field, and 35.4% from 3 point range. Michigan forces 12.7 turnovers a game.
Michigan guard Tim Hardaway, Jr. averages 15.2 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 2.5 assists a game. Trey Burke averages 14.1 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 5 assists a game to lead the team. He makes 34.3% of his three point attempts. Zack Novak averages 9 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 1.9 assists, and shoots 40.7% from 3 point range. Evan Smotrycz averages 8.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1 assist, and 0.9 steals a game. He is tied for the team lead in steals. He is shooting 42.6% from 3 point range. Jordan Morgan averages 5.6 rebounds a game to lead the Wolverines. Stu Douglass averages 1.9 assists and 0.9 steals a game. Both Morgan and Douglas also contribute to the scoring. Forward Jon Horford leads the team in blocks with 1 game, but he is doubtful with a foot injury after missing the last 13 games. No other Wolverine averages more than 0.5 blocks a game. Eso Akunne is also out indefinitely with a foot injury.
Michigan is 10-8-1 against the spread and the total is also 10-8-1. Indiana is 11-6 ATS and the total is 11-5-1 this season. Indiana is 13-4 ATS recently against Michigan including 6-2 in Ann Arbor. Six of the last 7 games in the series have gone over the total. The Hoosiers are 6-1 ATS after a cover, 2-5 against teams with winning records, as a road underdog, and after scoring 100 points or more, 3-8 after scoring 90 points or more, 4-12 in Big Ten games, 1-4 after a straight up win, in road games, in road games against teams with winning home records, and 1-7 as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less. The Wolverines are 7-1 ATS after failing to cover, 5-1 in Wednesday games, 4-1 as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less, and after scoring 50 points or less, 17-5 in Big Ten games, 11-4 at home, 24-9-1 overall, 38-18-1 against teams with winning records, 35-17 after a straight up loss, and 1-4 as a favorite.
The problem with this game is you don’t know which team will show up for either side. Both teams have been Jekyll and Hyde the last few weeks. Will the Michigan team that beat Michigan St and Wisconsin show up, or the team that lost to Iowa and Arkansas? Will the Indiana team that beat Ohio St and Kentucky show up, or the team that lost to Minnesota and Nebraska? I like Michigan to win a close game as they are much better at home, and Indiana struggles on the road.
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