Northwestern Wildcats at #24 Illinois Fighting Illini
Memorial Stadium – Champaign, Illinois
Saturday, October 1, 2011, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Opening Line: Illinois -7 1/2
Current Line: Illinois -8 1/2
Opening Total: 51 1/2
Current Total: 50
Opening Money Line: Illinois -320 / Northwestern +260
Current Money Line: Ilinois -325 / Northwestern +275
Northwestern and Illinois meet for the 105th time Saturady in Champaign. Illinois leads the overall series 53-46-5, but Northwestern has won 6 of the last 8. Illinois won last year 48-27 in the first college football game played at historic Wrigley Field in Chicago since World War II. These two in-state rivals normally close the season against each other, but are now in different divisions in the newly expanded Big Ten. So the Wildcats and Illini will open conference play against each other this year.
Northwestern, coached by Pat Fitzgerald, is 2-1 on the season. The Wildcats have wins at Boston College 24-17 and at home over Eastern Illinois 42-21. Two weeks ago, Northwestern lost at Army 21-14. Illinois, coached by Ron Zook is 4-0 this season and ranked #24 in the AP poll and #22 in the coaches’ poll. This is the fifth game of a 5 game home stand to start the season for the Illini. Illinois has wins over Arkansas St 33-15, South Dakota St 56-3, then #22 Arizona St 17-14, and last week 23-20 over Western Michigan.
The good news for Northwestern two weeks ago in their 21-14 loss at Army was they held the Black Knights to 6 yards passing. Unfortunately, Army racked up 381 rushing yards. The score was tied at 14 with 6 minutes to go, before Army quarterback Trent Steelman scored his third rushing touchdown of the game with less than 3 minutes to go. Army held off a final drive by Northwestern to secure the upset win. Northwestern had 309 total yards and only 14 first downs against Army. The Wildcats had 115 rushing yards but had the ball for only 19 minutes and 41 seconds. Seven penalties for the Wildcats didn’t help matters either. Northwestern receiver Jeremy Ebert had 6 catches for 108 yards and 2 touchdowns in the loss.
Northwestern has struggled in the passing game as talented quarterback Dan Persa missed the first 3 games as he recovered from a torn Achilles’ tendon suffered late last season. Persa is expected to return this week. Northwestern has relied more on the running game in Persa’s absence but will be more balanced once he returns and gets back into the flow of the offense. The Wildcats are averaging 390 total yards a game including 220.7 rushing yards a game. Northwestern is scoring 26.7 points a game. Northwestern only has 0ne turnover and has allowed 6 sacks this year. The Wildcats are 19/46 on third and fourth down conversions, and 10/14 scoring in the red zone, all were touchdowns. Northwestern is allowing 402.3 yards a game on defense including 205.7 rushing yards. Northwestern is allowing 19.7 points a game. Northwestern has forced 4 turnovers and 6 sacks this season. Wildcat opponents are 23/50 on third and fourth down conversions, and 8/10 scoring in the red zone with 7 touchdowns.
Kain Colter has been taking most of the snaps for the Wildcats in Persa’s absence but Trevor Siemian has taken a few as well. Kolter is 39/60 passing with 390 yards, a touchdown and a pick. He is also the team’s leading rusher with 48 carries for 237 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Siemian is 7/10 passing with 118 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 2 carries for 7 yards. Persa had over 3,100 combined passing and rushing yards along with 24 total touchdowns and 4 interceptions before his injury last year. Colter will still get some snaps and carries as Persa gets back into game shape. Colter could also see some time at halfback, as he is too talented to stay on the bench.
Four other rushers besides Colter have a rushing touchdown for the Wildcats. Mike Trumpy has 23 carries for 119 yards, and a touchdown. Adonis Smith, Jacob Schmidt, and Treyvon Green all have a touchdown and get significant carries as well. Smith is questionable with an ankle injury. Ebert is the top receiver with 10 catches for 162 yards and 2 touchdowns. Kicker Jeff Budzien is 11/11 on extra points and 1/3 on field goals with a 43 yard kick. The Wildcats have 5 defensive players listed as questionable with injuries for the Illinois game.
Illinois had a tougher game than you might expect from looking at the 14 point college football betting line last week against Western Michigan. The Illini won 23-20 but it wasn’t decided until a late field goal by Illinois. Illinois had 463 total yards including 296 rushing yards. The game was a little sloppy with 3 combined turnovers and 13 penalties. Illinois had 2 turnovers and 5 penalties. Western Michigan had 341 total yards but only 35 rushing yards.
Illinois is averaging 423.8 yards a game including a top 15 rushi9ng attack with 241.8 total yards a game. Illinois is scoring 32.2 points a game. Illinois has 6 turnovers and has allowed 10 sacks this season. The Illini are 34/65 on third and fourth conversions, and 18/19 scoring in the red zone, but only have 12 touchdowns. Illinois has been great on defense this year allowing only 287.2 yards and 13 points a game, both are ranked in the top 20 nationally. The rush defense is #6 in the country allowing only 56.5 yards a game. Illinois has forced 13 sacks and 9 turnovers this season. Illini opponents are 24/67 on third and fourth down conversions, and 6/9 scoring in the red zone with 3 touchdowns.
Illinois quarterback Natahn Scheelhaase is 47/66 passing with 637 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. He also has 56 carries, 224 yards, and 2 rushing touchdowns. Running back Troy Pollard has 25 carries, 260 yards, and a touchdown. Jason Ford has 62 carries, 215 yards, and 4 scores, along with 5 catches for 27 yards. Donovonn Young has 27 carries, 212 yards, and 3 touchdowns, along with 2 catches for 7 yards. Receiver A.J. Jenkins has 28 catches, 365 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Darius Millines has 10 catches for 174 yards, and a touchdown. Millines is questionable with an arm injury. Evan Wilson only has 4 catches but 2 of them went for touchdowns. Kicker Derek Dimke hasn’t missed a kick in 21 tries, including 6 field goals with a long of 39 yards.Offensive linemen Jeff Allen (suspension) and Corey Lewis (knee) are both listed as doubtful for this game.
Illinois is 2-2 against the spread this year and 3 of the 4 games have g one under the total. Northwestern is 1-2 ATS and 2 of the 3 games have gone under the total. The Wildcats are 11-2 ATS in the last 13 as a road underdog, and 23-6 ATS as an underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points, including 17-5 on the road in that situation. The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Big Ten games, and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 October games. Illinois is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 October games, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. The Illini are 2-14 in their last 16 as a favorite of between 3.5 and 10 points, including 0-8 at home.
Though Illinois is the better team on both sides of the ball, the return of Persa brings some uncertainty to this game. It will probably take at least a game or two for Persa to get back into the flow. Despite that, I do think Northwestern is a live underdog and has a chance to pull off the upset. I like Illinois to win a close game in a low scoring affair.
Our college football handicappers are red hot this season and crushing the sports books. Check out our college football odds page for real time line movements on every game
