Big Ten Rivals Collide: Illinois at Wisconsin

Illinois Fighting Illini at Wisconsin Badgers, Kohl Center, Madison, WI
Saturday, January 15, 2011, 3:00 pm Eastern, TV: Big Ten Network
Opening Line: Wisconsin -5 1/2
Current Line: Wisconsin -6
Opening Total: 124
Current Total: 124
Money Line: Wisconsin -220 / Illinois +180

Jon Leuer and the Wisconsin Badgers take on the Illinois Fighting Illini in Madison in Big Ten action Saturday. The Badgers are 6 point favorites.

The Big Ten is arguably the best conference in the country with 6 of the 11 teams currently ranked in the top 25. (Fans of the Big East might disagree about the best conference in the country.) The Big Ten has a really good shot of getting 7, 8 or maybe even 9 teams in the NCAA tournament. The problem is there is so much depth and balance in the conference that the teams might beat up on each other. Though 9-8 in conference play will probably get you into the Dance. Illinois is 13-4 and 3-1 in Big Ten play this season. They are ranked #16 in the country. The Illini travel to Wisconsin to take on the #21 12-4 (2-2 Big Ten) Badgers. Both are coming off close losses on the road in conference play. Illinois lost at Penn St Tuesday 57-55. Illinois shot only 41.3% from the field in the loss and turned the ball over 15 times. Illinois also has losses to Texas, Illinois-Chicago, and Missouri on the year. Illinois has non-conference wins over Maryland, Gonzaga, and North Carolina on the season. They started conference play 3-0 including a win over Wisconsin at home 69-61. The Illini also have wins over Iowa and Northwestern. Wisconsin lost in overtime at Michigan St on Tuesday 64-61. Wisconsin shot 38.2% from the field in the loss. Besides the 2 conference losses Wisconsin also has losses to UNLV and Notre Dame on the year. The Badgers have wins over Boston College, NC State, Marquette, Minnesota, and Michigan on the season. Illinois has won 4 out the last 6 games straight-up against Wisconsin, and is 3-2-1 ATS. Four of the last six meetings have gone under the total. Illinois beat Wisconsin at Madison last February 63-56. The Badgers have won 12 straight home games since losing that game. Under coach Bo Ryan, Wisconsin is 71-6 straight up at home versus conference rivals. Three of those losses have come to the Illini. Illinois is 11-3 ATS in road games the last 3 seasons.

Illini guard/forward Jereme Richmond is expected to miss this game for personal reasons. He averages 7.5 points and 4.5 rebounds a game off the bench for the Illini. Guard Demetri McCamey leads the team in scoring with 15.8 points, and assists with 7.1 a game. He also averages 3.4 rebounds a game and is shooting 54.1% from behind the 3-point line. Forward Mike Davis averages 11 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 1 block a game. Guard D.J. Richardson averages 11 points, 1.8 rebounds, and 2.2 assists. Center Mike Tisdale leads the team in rebounds with 7.5 a game and blocks with 1.5 a game. He also averages 10.3 points, and 1.2 assists a game. Guard Brandon Paul leads the team in steals with 1.1 a game. Illinois is outscoring opponents 76-65 on the season. Illinois is shooting 48.8% from the field and 43.4% from 3-point range. In fact, Illinois was shooting over 67% in their three league victories this season. Illinois opponents shoot 40% from the field. Illinois makes 70% from the free throw line. The Illini average 35.6 rebounds a game and have a rebounding margin of +2.3. They average 17.4 assists and 13.8 turnovers a game. Illinois forces 14.8 turnovers a game on defense. The Illini average 6.1 steals and 5.1 blocks a game.

Wisconsin is healthy and has no significant injuries right now. Senior Forward Jon Leuer leads the Badgers in scoring with 18.8 points, rebounding with 7.3 a game, and is tied for the team lead in blocks with 1.5 a game. He also averages 2.1 assists a game and shoots an impressive 46.8% from 3-point range for a big man. Leuer is 6’10” and 228 pounds. Junior guard Jordan Taylor averages 16.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, 4.7 assists to lead the team, and 0.9 steals a game to lead the team. Forward Keaton Nankivil averages 8.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks a game. Like Leuer, the 6’8″, 240 pound Nankivil is a good 3 point shooter making 44% of his 3-point attempts. Wisconsin is outscoring opponents 70-56 on the season. The Badgers are shooting 44.3% from the field and 37.8% from 3-point range. Badger opponents are shooting 39.8% from the field. The Badgers are an excellent free throw shooting team making 81% from the charity stripe. Wisconsin averages 33.7 rebounds a game and have a rebounding margin of +3.9. They average 14.6 assists and 8.3 turnovers a game. The Badgers force 11.4 turnovers a game on defense. Wisconsin averages 4.1 steals and 4.2 blocks a game.

These two teams played in Champaign just two weeks ago. Illinois won 69-61. The main difference was Illinois shot 56.1% from the field and Wisconsin shot only 35% from the field. Illinois out rebounded them 31-24 in that game. The Badgers live and die by the 3-point shot . Against Illinois they were only 10 out of 35 from 3-point range. Leuer and Taylor both scored 19 points in that game, and Nankivil scored 11. The trio accounted for 49 of the Badgers 61 points. In that game McCamey was unstoppable scoring 21 points, and Davis added a double-double with 11 points and 14 rebounds for the Illini. Illinois has shown the are not afraid to play in the tough, loud Kohl Center. I think it will be close but Wisconsin gets revenge for the game earlier in the season.