#22 Wisconsin Badgers at Minnesota Golden Gophers
Williams Arena – Minneapolis, Minnesota
Thursday, February 9, 2012, 7:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Wisconsin -1
Current Line: Minnesota -1
Opening Total: 112
Current Total: 115
Opening Money Line: Wisconsin -115 / Minnesota -105
Current Money Line: Minnesota -115 / Wisconsin -105
The Big Ten is one of the deepest conferences in the country and has a good shot of getting 8 or perhaps even 9 teams in the NCAA tournament. The 18-6 Wisconsin Badgers and 17-7 Minnesota Golden Gophers are among those teams as they renew their rivalry in Minneapolis Thursday night. The Badgers are 7-4 and 2 games behind first place Ohio St, who beat the Badgers Saturday in Madison 58-52. The loss snapped a 6 game winning streak for Wisconsin, Minnesota is 5-6 in conference. The Goohers won at Nebraska Sunday 69-61. Minnesota leads the series 100-89 against Wisconsin, including 67-30 in Minneapolis. The Badgers have won 11 of the last 15 in the series including 68-60 in Madison last year that snapped a 3 game losing streak to the Gophers.
Wisconsin is coached by Bo Ryan. The Badgers have additonal losses to North Carolina, Marquette, Iowa, Michigan St, and Michigan. All except Iowa were ranked in the top 16 when they beat Wisconsin. Wisconsin has wins over Wofford, BYU, Bradley, Green Bay, UNLV, Milwaukee, Nebraska twice, Purdue, Northwestern, Illinois, Indiana, and Penn St.
Minnesota is coached by Tubby Smith. The Golden Gophers have losses to Dayton, Illinois, Michigan, Iowa twice, Purdue, and Michigan St. Minnesota has wins over Bucknell, South Dakota St, DePaul, Indiana St, Virginia Tech, USC, Central Michigan, Indiana, Penn St, Northwestern, and Illinois.
Wisconsin is outscoring opponents 64-50 this season. The Badgers are number one nationally in points allowed and #2 in both opponent’s field goal percentage and in opponent’s 3 point percentage. Badger opponents are shooting 36.5% from the field, and 26.2% from three point range. The Badgers are shooting 42.9% from the field, and 35.6% from 3 point range. Wisconsin makes 71.3% of their free throws. The Badgers average 34.6 rebounds a game, with a rebounding margin of +3.2. Wisconsin averages 11.5 assists, 8.8 turnovers, 5.5 steals, and 3.8 blocks a game. Wisconsin forces 11.1 turnovers a game.
Wisconsin guard Jordan Taylor averages 14 points, 4.1 rebounds, 4.4 assists, and 1 steal a game. Taylor leads the Badgers in scoring and assists, and is tied for the team lead in steals. Jared Berggren averages 10.5 points, 5 rebounds, 1 steals, and 1.6 blocks a game. He leads the team in steals and blocks,a nd is shooting 35.4% from 3 point range. Ryan Evans averages 10 points, 6.6 rebounds to lead the team, 1.5 assists, 0.9 steals, and 1.1 blocks a game. Ben Brust averages 8.9 points, and 2.5 rebounds a game. The top 9 scorers for the Badgers all shoot over 30% from 3 point range.
Minnesota is outscoring opponents 69-63 this season. The Golden Gophers are shooting 47.5% from the field, including 36% from 3 point range. Minnesota makes 69.5% of their free throws. The Gophers average 34.2 rebounds a game, and have a rebounding margin of +2.8. Minnesota averages 16 assists, 14 turnovers, 5.4 blocks and 8 steals a game. Minnesota opponents are shooting 41.4% from the field including 33.9% from 3 point range. Minnesota is forcing 14 turnovers a game.
Forward Trevor Mbakwe was the leading scorer and rebounder for Minnesota but he is gone for the season with a leg injury. Rodney Williams averages 10.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.5 blocks a game. He leads the team in scoring, steals, rebounds, and blocks. Julian Welch is averaging 10.2 points, 2.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists to lead the team, and 1 steal a game. Austin Hollins averages 8.5 points, 2.3 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1 steal a game. Ralph Sampson III averages 8.4 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1.3 blocks a game. Forward Maurice Walker is questionable with a knee injury, but hasn’t played yet this season.
Minnesota is 11-9-1 ATS and the total is 10-10-1 this season. Wisconsin is 12-9 ATS and the total is 7-14 this season. Minnesota has covered 4 of the last 5 against Wisconsin, and 6 of the last 7 games in the series in Minneapolis have gone under. The Badgers are 3-7 ATS overall and in Big Ten games, and 2-6 as a favorite. The Gophers are 4-1 ATS as a home underdog and against teams with winning records, 5-2 overall, and in Big Ten games, 3-7-1 after a cover, and 4-11 as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less.
This game could go either way, but with Wisconsin’s suffocating defense, I think under 115 is a good play here.
