Minnesota Golden Gophers at #19 Michigan Wolverines
Michigan Stadium – Ann Arbor, Michigan
Saturday, October 1, 2011, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: Big Ten Network
Opening Line: Michigan -20
Current Line: Michigan -19 1/2
Opening Total: 55
Current Total: 53 1/2
Opening Money Line: Michigan -1200 / Minnesota +800
Current Money Line: Michigan -1200 / Minnesota +800
Minnesota and Michigan are playing for the 97th time Saturday. They play for the Little Brown Jug, but the rivals haven’t met since 2008. Michigan leads the series 69-24-3, including a 29-6 win in the 2008 encounter. They are both in the Legends division in the now 12 team Big Ten, so they will play each other every year. This is the conference opener for both schools.
Both programs are headed by coaches in their first year at the school, but are headed in opposite directions. Minnesota is coached by Jerry Kill, but is 1-3 this season with losses at USC 19-17 and embarrassing losses at home to lowly New Mexico St 28-21 and last week 37-24 to North Dakota St. The Gophers do have a home win 29-23 over Miami-Ohio. Michigan, coached by Brady Hoke, is 4-0 this season, and ranked #19 in both polls. This is the last game in a 5 game home stand to start the season for Michigan. Michigan has wins over Western Michigan 34-10, Notre Dame 35-31, Eastern Michigan 31-3, and last week 28-7 versus a decent San Diego St team.
North Dakota St beat Minnesota in Minneapolis for the second time in 2 years 37-24 last Saturday. It doesn’t matter that Minnesota is rebuilding, no FCS school from a BCS conference should lose to the same FBS school at home two years in a row. That would be unacceptable even for a team from the Sun Belt or MAC, much less the mighty Big Ten. Minnesota had 2 turnovers and 8 penalties in the loss to NDSU last Saturday. The two turnovers were very costly as the Bison ran two interceptions back for touchdowns that proved to be the difference in the game. The first one was especially killer as it occurred on the last play of the first half and gave NDSU a 28-14 lead. Neither team moved the ball very well, as the Bison only had 336 total yards and 17 first downs, while the Gophers had 292 total yards and 18 first downs.
As you might expect from a one win team, Minnesota has struggled on offense, averaging 353 yards and 22.8 points a game. The rushing game isn’t bad with 173.8 yards a game but isn’t spectacular either. The Gophers have 5 turnovers and have allowed 11 sacks this season. Minnesota is 26/65 on third and fourth down conversions, and 14/16 scoring in the red zone with 9 touchdowns. The Gophers are allowing 383.2 yards and 26.8 points a game. The pass defense is among the worst in the country allowing 278.5 yards a game. They only give up 104.8 rushing yards a game but when you can move the ball with ease through the air a rushing game isn’t really necessary for success. Minnesota has forced 4 turnovers and one sack this season. Gopher opponents are 26/56 on third and fourth down conversions, and 10/13 scoring in the red zone with 9 touchdowns.
Minnesota quarterback Marqueis Grey is the leading passer and rusher for the Gophers. He is 39/77 passing with 521 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. He has 71 carries for 351 yards, and no rushing touchdowns. Duane Bennett has 44 carries, 164 yards, and a touchdown along with a catch for 9 yards. Donnell Kirkwood has 23 carries, 125 yards, and 3 touchdown runs. Receiver Da’Jon McKnight has 19 catches, 260 yards, and a touchdown reception. Malcolm Moulton has 11 catches for 150 yards and a score. Eric Lair and Marcus Jones get significant targets as well. Kicker Chris Hawthorne is 10/11 on extra points and 5/8 on field goals with a long of 36 yards. Offensive lineman Josh Campion is questionable with a concussion for the Michigan game, and linebacker Brendan Beal is out indefinitely with a knee injury.
Michigan jumped out to a 21-0 halftime lead last week against San Diego St and cruised to a 28-7 victory, easily covering the 10 point college football betting line. The game featured 7 turnovers and 10 penalties combined by both teams. Michigan had 4 turnovers but still dominated thanks to the play of quarterback Denard Robinson who rushed for 200 yards and 3 touchdowns. Michigan had 413 total yards, including 320 rushing yards. San Diego St had 376 total yards in the loss.
Michigan is averaging 406 yards and 32 points a game. The Wolverines rarely pass, but they have the #12 rushing offense in the country with 250 yards a game. The Wolverines have 8 turnovers this season and have allowed 1 sack. Michigan is 21/43 on third and fourth down conversions, and 13/13 scoring in the red zone with 12 touchdowns. Michigan is allowing 351 yards and 12.8 points a game. The Wolverines are allowing only 195 passing yards a game. Michigan has forced 13 turnovers and 4 sacks this season. Wolverine opponents are 28/61 on third and fourth down conversions, and 7/13 scoring in the red zone with 5 touchdowns.
Robinson has been almost unstoppable this year and is an early contender for the Heisman Trophy. He is the leading passer and rusher for the Wolverines, with 1,176 combined yards, 11 total touchdowns, with 6 interceptions. Running back Fitzgerald Toussaint has 35 carries, 193 yards, and 3 scores. Vincent Smith has 21 carries, 179 yards and a touchdown, along with 5 catches for 70 yards and a score. Six Wolverine receivers have a touchdown catch, and no one has more than 8 catches or 211 yards. Junior Hemingway (who is actually a senior) and Jeremy Gallon are the top two receivers for the Wolverines. Kicker Brendan Gibbons is 17/18 on extra points and 1/2 on field goals with a 21 yard kick.
Michigan is 3-1 against the spread this year and 3 of the four games have gone under the total. Minnesota is 2-2 ATS and the total is 2-2 as well this season. The Gophers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 as an underdog, and as an underdog of 10.5 points or more, 5-0 in their last 5 as a road underdog of 10.5 or more, and 6-1 both on the road and as a road underdog. Michigan is 3-23 ATS in their last 26 conference games and 0-6 in their last 6 October games.
Minnesota is arguably the worst team in the Big Ten, along with Indiana. The Gophers will get pummeled a lot in conference starting with this game. The Wolverines should romp in this game and cover easily.
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