No. 12 Michigan Wolverines at Northwestern Wildcats
Saturday, 10/8/11, 7:00 PM EST, TV: Big Ten Network
Opening Point Spread: Michigan -10
Current Betting Line: Michigan -7.5
Opening Total: 60
Current Total: 59
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker
Michigan is 5-0 on the season and will make its first trip outside of Ann Arbor this weekend when taking on Northwestern. The Wolverines are coming off a 58-0 win over the Minnesota Gophers as 21-point home favorites. Expectations are sky high around campus, but the program’s new head coach knows that plenty of obstacles lie ahead. “I’m interested to see how we react and what we’re made of, our mentality, our mental toughness,” Hoke said. “And if we’re business like.” The Wolverines defense is the biggest reason for optimism, as the unit is allowing just 10.2 points per game, which is far below last year’s 35.2 mark. Michigan is 2-15 ATS versus conference opponents.
The Wolverines have enjoyed tremendous success inside the red zone, scoring on 21-of-22 opportunities, including 17 touchdowns. Michigan offense is averaging 37.2 points and 440.8 yards per game. Heisman Trophy candidate Denard Robinson is leading the charge, leading the conference in rushing, while also playing behind an offensive line that has allowed just two sacks in five games. Turnovers have also played an important role in the team’s dominant beginning, leading the Big Ten with a plus-seven differential.
Northwestern is looking to bounce back from consecutive losses, including a 38-35 defeat to the Illinois Fighting Illini as 9.5-point road underdogs. The Wildcats were unable to hold an 18-point lead, as quarterback Dan Persa left the game in the fourth quarter due to his Achilles acting up. “I felt pain at the bottom of my right heel and then the top of my Achilles’ started to stiffen up,” commented Persa after the game. “I’m sure it’ll be fine.” It’s a definite factor in this game due to him missing the first three games of the season. Northwestern is 3-9 ATS at home the past two-plus seasons.
The Wildcats have also caused opponents to turn the ball over, ranking second in the conference with a plus-five differential. Northwestern is going to have trouble defending against Robinson’s dual-threat ability, as the unit has allowed 414 yards per game, including 174.8 on the ground. From a roster standpoint, seven players have made their first career start on this side of the ball already this year. The team will be hard-pressed to continue piling up sacks due to the earlier stat mentioned about Michigan’s offensive line, but the group does rank 31st nationally with 2.5 sacks a contest.
Bettors will likely back the Wildcats due to their 9-3 ATS mark as a home underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, while the Wolverines are 0-5 ATS on the road.
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