Illinois Fighting Illini at Penn State Nittany Lions
Beaver Stadium – University Park, Pennsylvania
Saturday, November 2, 2013, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Penn State -10
Current Line: Penn State -11 1/2
Opening Total: 58
Current Total: 55
Opening Money Line: Penn State -340 / Illinois +280
Current Money Line: Penn State -400 / Illinois +320
The 3-4 Illinois Fighting Illini are 0-3 in the Big Ten Leaders Division and are one of three winless teams in the Big Ten with 0-4 Northwestern and 0-3 Purdue. The Illini travel to 4-3 Penn State Saturday. The Nittany Lions are 1-2 in the Leaders Division. Penn State is ineligible for a bowl game because of NCAA sanctions. The Nittany Lions lead the series 16-4 including 7-1 at home. Penn State has won 2 straight games in the series including 35-7 in Champaign last year.
Illinois is coached by Tim Beckman. The Fighting Illini have home wins over Southern Illinois 42-34, Cincinnati 45-17, and Miami-(OH) 50-14. Illinois has home losses to Washington 34-24, Wisconsin 56-32 and last week against Michigan State 42-3, along with a road loss at Nebraska 39-19. Illinois has lost 3 straight games all by 20 points or more. The Illini are 3-4 ATS and the total is 4-3 this season. Illinois was an 7.5 point underdog against Michigan State and the total was 48.5.
Illinois took a 3-0 first quarter lead against Michigan State but would not score again. The Spartans scored 42 unanswered points to rout the Illini 42-3. Illinois could only manage 128 total yards and 8 first downs. Michigan State had 477 total yards including 269 rushing yards. The Illini had two turnovers and the Spartans had one.
The Illini are being outscored 34-31 this season. Illinois is #102 out of 125 teams nationally in points allowed. Illinois is averaging 400.7 total yards a game including 261.3 passing yards and 139.4 rushing yards. On defense, Illinois is giving up 457.7 total yards per game including 238.4 passing yards and 219.3 rushing yards. Illinois is #104 in total offense and #111 against the rush. The Illini are -5 in turnovers with 6 takeaways. Illinois is 47/102 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 46/98. Illinois is 23/29 scoring in the red zone with 17 touchdowns and opponents are 30/35 with 23 touchdowns. The Illini average 48 penalty yards per game and opponents average 62. Illinois has forced 7 sacks and allowed 18 this season. The Illini have one kick return for a touchdown.
Quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase has completed 65.3% of his passes for 1,649 yards with 12 touchdowns and 5 picks, along with 58 carries for 71 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. Running back Josh Ferguson has 66 carries for 361 yards and 2 touchdowns, and is also the leading receiver with 25 catches, 361 yards and 3 touchdowns. Donovonn Young has 66 carries, 281 yards and 3 touchdowns. Aaron Bailey has 18 carries for 84 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns. Receiver Ryan Lankford has 15 catches, 308 yards and a touchdown. Martize Barr has 22 catches, 214 yards and a touchdown. Matt LaCosse has 3 touchdown catches. Jon Davis, and Evan Wilson each have two touchdown catches. Three defensive players are listed as questionable to out Saturday.
Penn State is coached by Bill O’Brien. The Nittany Lions have a win over Syracuse 23-17 in East Rutherford, NJ, along with home wins over Eastern Michigan 45-7, Kent State 34-0 and Michigan 43-40 in four overtimes. Penn State has a home loss to Central Florida 34-31 along with road losses at Indiana 44-24 and last week at Ohio State 63-14. The Nittany Lions are 3-4 ATS and the total is 5-2 this season. Penn State was a 15 point underdog against Ohio State and the total was 57.
After pulling off an upset at home against Michigan in quadruple overtime, Penn State appeared to suffer a hangover against Ohio State in Columbus. The Buckeyes jumped out to an early 28-0 lead before the Nittany Lions got on board with a touchdown. Ohio State would expand the lead to 42-7 by halftime. The Buckeyes would score 21 more points in the second half to go up 63-7. Penn State added a meaningless touchdown midway through the fourth to make the final 63-14. The Nittany Lions had 357 total yards including 237 passing yards. Ohio State rolled up 686 total yards including 408 rushing yards. Penn State had the only 3 turnovers of the game in a miserable day on both sides of the ball for the Nittany Lions.
Penn State is outscoring teams 31-29 this season. The Nittany Lions are #80 in points allowed nationally. Penn State is averaging 428.9 total yards per game including 277 passing yards and 151.9 rushing yards. The Nittany Lions are #31 in passing nationally. On defense, Penn State is allowing 385.9 total yards per game including 226.7 passing and 159.1 rushing yards. The Nittany Lions are -7 in turnovers with 16 giveaways. Penn State averages 30 penalty yards per game and opponents average 53. The Nittany Lions are 43/124 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 34/111. Penn State has forced 15 sacks and allowed 19 this season. The Nittany Lions are 23/25 scoring in the red zone with 17 touchdowns and opponents are 20/23 with 13 touchdowns. Penn State has allowed 2 defensive touchdowns this season.
Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg has completed 57.8% of his passes for 1,784 yards with 12 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, along with a rushing touchdown. Running back Bill Belton has 92 carries, 467 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 9 catches for 95 yards and 2 touchdowns. Zach Zwinak has 95 carries for 401 yards and 8 touchdowns, along with 3 catches. Akeel Lynch has 46 carries, 305 yards and a touchdown. Fullback Jack Haffner is questionable with an ankle injury. Receiver Allen Robinson has 55 carries, 878 yards and 6 touchdowns. Brandon Felder has 26 catches, 274 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Illinois is 18-38 ATS after scoring 20 points or less, 7-19 after gaining less than 275 total yards, 9-25 after a double digit home loss, 4-12 overall, 5-16 in Big Ten games after allowing more than 40 points, 3-10 after a straight up loss of 20 points or more, 2-8 after failing to cover, and after allowing 450 total yards or more, 1-4 after allowing 200 rushing yards or more, and in November, 2-9 after a straight up loss, 2-10 against teams with winning records, 0-6 against teams with winning home records, 0-7 in road games, and 0-4 after passing for 170 yards or less. The road team is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 in this series. The underdog has covered 6 of the last 7 in the series. The Fighting Illini are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 against The Nittany Lions, and have covered in their last 5 trips to Beaver Stadium.
Penn State is 6-0 ATS after a straight up loss, 5-0 after failing to cover, 3-0-1 in November, 6-1 on grass, 5-1 at home and after allowing 40 points or more, 9-2 after a straight up loss of 20 points or more, 20-8-2 against teams with losing records, 25-10 after allowing 200 rushing yards or more, 12-5-1 overall, 7-3-1 in Big Ten games, and 1-4 after allowing 450 total yards or more. Five of the last six in the series have gone over the total.
Both of these teams were drilled last week by Michigan State and Ohio State, arguably the two best teams in the conference. Illinois struggles on defense,a nd I think Penn State takes advantage of that. The Nittany Lions win easily at home.
