#24 Northwestern Wildcats at Michigan Wolverines
Saturday, November 10, 2012, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Michigan Stadium – Ann Arbor, Michigan
Opening Line: Michigan -12
Current Line: Michigan -9 1/2
Opening Total: 52 1/2
Current Total: 52 1/2
Opening Money Line: Michigan -375 / Northwestern +315
Current Money Line: Michigan -370 / Northwestern +310

The Michigan Wolverines and Northwestern Wildcats meet for the 71st time Saturday in Ann Arbor. Michigan leads the series 53-15-2, including 33-6-2 in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines won last year in Evanston 42-24.

Northwestern is 7-2 this season and 3-2 in the Big Ten Legends Division under coach Pat Fitzgerald. The Wildcats are a game behind Nebraska and Michigan for the division lead. Northwestern has losses at Penn St 39-28, and at home against Nebraska 29-28. The Wildcats have home wins over Vanderbilt 23-13, Boston College 22-13, South Dakota 38-7, Indiana 44-29, and last week against Iowa 28-17, along with road wins at Syracuse 42-41 and Minnesota 21-13. Northwestern is 8-1 ATS and the total is 3-5 this season. The Wildcats were 4.5 point favorites at home against Iowa and the total was 46.5.

Northwestern is averaging 398.8 yards per game on offense, including 162.3 passing yards and 236.4 rushing yards. The Wildcats are #113 nationally in passing and #13 rushing out of 124 teams. Northwestern is outscoring teams 30-22 this season. The Wildcats are +6 in turnovers with 9 giveaways. Northwestern is averaging 57 penalty yards per game and has allowed 12 sacks. The Wildcats are 65/143 on third and fourth down conversions and 32/35 scoring in the red zone with 22 touchdowns.

Northwestern uses two quarterbacks. Trevor Siemian has completed 96 of 163 passes (58.9%) for 931 yards with 4 touchdowns and an interception. Kain Colter has completed 62 of 89 passes (69.7%) for 517 yards with 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. The versatile Colter also has 114 carries, 622 yards and 11 touchdowns, along with 16 catches for 169 yards. Running back Venric Mark has 166 carries, 1,072 yards and 9 touchdowns, along with 17 carries, 100 yards and a touchdown. Mark has over 1,600 all-purpose yards and 2 punt returns for a touchdown. Mike Trumpy has 54 carries, 252 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with7 catches for 43 yards. Tony Jones has 21 catches, 266 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Rashad Lawrence has 24 catches and 252 yards. Christian Jones has 21 catches, 243 yards and 2 touchdowns. Demetrius Fields has 26 catches, 216 yards and a touchdown.

Michigan is 6-3 this season and 4-1 in the Big Ten under coach Brady Hoke. The Wolverines have losses to Alabama 41-14 in Arlington, Texas, at Notre Dame 13-6, and at Nebraska 23-9. Michigan has home wins over Air Force 31-25, Massachusetts 63-13, Illinois 45-0, and Michigan St 12-10 along with road wins at Purdue 44-13 and last week at Minnesota 35-13. The Wolverines are 4-5 ATS and the total is also 4-5 this season. Michigan was an 8 point favorite against Minnesota and the total was 45.5.

Michigan is averaging 379.3 yards per game on offense including 178.4 passing yards and 200.9 rushing yards. The Wolverines are #28 in rushing and #108 in rushing nationally. Michigan is outscoring teams 29-17 this season. The Wolverines are -4 in turnovers with 18 giveaways. Michigan is averaging 51 penalty yards and has allowed 10 sacks. The Wolverines are 63/128 on third and fourth down conversions and 28/31 scoring in the red zone with 17 touchdowns. On defense, Michigan is allowing 288.7 yards per game including the nation’s best passing defense with just 145.4 yards allowed and 143.2 rushing yards. The Wolverines are #8 in total defense and #13 in scoring defense. Michigan has forced 11 sacks and 14 turnovers. Wolverine opponents are 49/139 on third and fourth down conversions and 22/26 scoring in the red zone with 11 touchdowns.

Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson is questionable with an elbow injury after missing the Minnesota game. He is splitting snaps with back-up Devin Gardner in practice. Gardner started that Minnesota game. Robinson has completed 89 of 166 passes (53.6%) for 1,319 yards with 9 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Robinson also leads the Wolverines in rushing with 131 yards, 946 yards and 6 touchdowns. Gardner is 12/18 passing with 234 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception, along with rushing touchdown. He is a wide receiver, and all of his passing and rushing yards came against Minnesota. Gardner has 16 catches, 266 yards and 4 touchdowns. Gardner got the start because back-up Russell Bellomy threw four interceptions and no touchdowns mostly in mop-up duty. Running back Fitzgerald Toussaint has 109 carries, 391 yards and 5 touchdowns,a long with 5 catches for 34 yards. Thomas Rawls has 41 catches, 217 yards and 3 touchdowns. Receiver Jeremy Gallon has 22 catches, 290 yards and 2 touchdowns. Drew Dileo has 14 catches, 285 yards and a touchdown. Roy Roundtree has 15 catches, 239 yards and a touchdown. Devin Funchess has 12 catches, 193 yards and 3 touchdowns. Six Michigan defensive players are listed as questionable or out Saturday.

Northwestern is 16-9 straight up in road games including 11-7 in Big Ten play. The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS after passing for less than 170 yards, 4-0 on grass and after allowing 20 points, 8-1 overall, 6-1 after a cover, 5-1 after a straight up win and after rushing for 200 yards or more, 4-1 in Big Ten games, against teams with winning records, and in road games. The underdog has covered in 4 of the last 5 in this series.

Michigan is 7-3 ATS  after allowing less than 170 passing yards, 2-5 after a cover, 10-26 in conference games, 7-19-1 against teams with winning records, 3-11 in November, 2-8 at home against teams with winning road records, and 1-4 after a straight up win of 20 points or more. Four of the last five games in this series have gone under the total.

Both of these teams have losses to Nebraska, which means they need help in order to pass the Cornhuskers for the division title. However, a Northwestern win and a Nebraska loss to Penn St this weekend would create a three way tie for first. Then things could get interesting. This line opened with Michigan as a 12 point favorite, but has been bet down to -9 1/2, due to the uncertainty over Robinson. Even if Robinson plays, i still think that line is too many points. I like Northwestern to cover in a low-scoring game.

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