Michigan State Spartans at Iowa Hawkeyes
Kinnick Stadium – Iowa City, Iowa
Saturday, October 5, 2013, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Opening Line: Iowa -2
Current Line: Iowa -1
Opening Total: 39 1/2
Current Total: 38
Opening Money Line: Iowa -120 / Michigan State +100
Current Money Line: Iowa -115 / Michigan State -105

The 3-1 Michigan State Spartans travel to the 4-1 Iowa Hawkeyes in a key Big Ten Legends game. Iowa leads the series 23-19-2 including 13-9-1 in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes won last year in East Lansing 19-16. Iowa has won 4 of the last 6 against Michigan State.

Michigan State is coached by Mark Dantonio. The Spartans lost their first game of the season 2 weeks ago at Notre Dame 17-13. Michigan State began the season with 3 straight home wins over Western Michigan 26-13, South Florida 21-6 and Youngstown State 55-17. The Spartans are 1-2-1 ATS this season and the total is 1-3. Michigan State earned a push against Notre Dame as a 4 point dog and the game went under the 42.5 point total.

The Saprtans were down 17-10 to Notre Dame early in the fourth, before kicking a field goal with 10:40 left to pull within 4 points. Michigan State had 3 more possessions after that but was unable to advance past their own 45, and Notre Dame held on for the 17-13 win. Neither offense was able to move the ball very well. Michigan State had 254 total yards and Notre Dame had 220 total yards. The Spartans had the only turnover of the game, but the interception led to Notre Dame scoring the go ahead touchdown early in the fourth. The two teams combined for 18 penalties for over 200 yards.

Michigan State is outscoring teams 29-13 this season. The Spartans are #10 nationally in points allowed. On offense, Michigan State is averaging 340.8 total yards per game including 187 rushing yards and 153.8 passing yards. The Spartans are #104 in total offense and #115 in passing out of 125 teams in FBS. On defense, MSU is allowing 187.8 yards per game including 130.5 passing and 57.2 rushing yards. The Spartans lead the nation in total and passing defense and are #2 against the run. Michigan State is +3 in turnovers with 8 takeaways. The Spartans are averaging 76 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 59. MSU is 30/71 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 15/66. The Spartans have forced 9 sacks and allowed 3 this season. Michigan State is 14/16 scoring in the red zone with 8 touchdowns, and opponents are 7/8 with 5 touchdowns. The Spartans have 4 defensive touchdowns this season.

Michigan State has used 3 quarterbacks this season. Connor Cook has completed 53.1% of his passes for 411 yards with 5 touchdowns and no interceptions, along with 19 carries for 74 yards. Andrew Maxwell has thrown for 114 yards with no touchdowns or picks, and also has a few carries for minimal yardage. Cook will start against Iowa but Maxwell could see some snaps.  Freshman Tyler O’Connor has also taken a few snaps this season. Running back Jeremy Langford has 58 carries, 268 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 8 catches for 40 yards. Nick Hill has 38 catches, 213 yards and a touchdown, along with a catch for 10 yards. Receiver MacGarrett Kings Jr. has 13 catches, 136 yards and 2 touchdowns. Bennie Fowler has 8 catches for 112 yards and a touchdown. Aaron Burbridge has 12 catches for 100 yards.

Iowa is coached by Kirk Ferentz. The Hawkeyes opened the season with a 30-27 loss at home to Northern Illinois. Iowa has since won 4 straight games including at home over Missouri State 28-14 and Western Michigan 59-3. The Hawkeyes also have road wins at Iowa State 27-21 and last week at Minnesota 23-7 in the Big Ten opener for both schools. Iowa is 3-2 ATS and the total is 4-1 this season. The Hawkeyes were 2.5 point favorites at Minnesota and the total was 44.5.

Iowa scored the first 20 points of the game against Minnesota. The gophpers scored late in the third to pull within 13 but they would get no closer. The Hawkeyes added a fourth quarter field goal to ice the game 23-7. Iowa had 464 total yards including 246 rushing yards. Minnesota had just 165 total yards. The Golden Gophers also had two turnovers to Iowa’s one.

Iowa is outscoring teams 33-15 this season. Iowa is 18th in points allowed antionally. The Hawkeyes are averaging 447 total yards per game, including 244 rushing yards (#19 nationally) per game. On defense Iowa is allowing 265.6 yards per game, including 79.2 rushing yards. The Hawkeyes are in the top 10 nationally in total and rush defense. Iowa is +3 in turnovers with 10 takeaways. The Hawkeyes are 43/83 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 25/81. Iowa is 16/23 scoring in the red zone with 11 touchdowns, and opponents are 4/6 with one touchdown. The Hawkeyes average 45 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 44. They have forced 6 sacks and allowed 5 this season. Iowa has five defensive or special teams touchdowns this season, and has allowed one.

Iowa quarterback Jake Rudock has completed 62% of his passes for 961 yards with 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, along with 28 carries for 128 yards and 5 touchdowns. Running back Mark Weisman has 119 carries, 615 yards and 3 touchdowns. Damon Bullock has 61 carries for 250 yards, along with 8 catches for 42 yards. Receiver Kevonte Martin-Manley has 26 catches for 225 yards and a touchdown. He also has two punt returns for touchdowns. Damond Powell has 4 catches for 206 yards and 2 touchdowns. That is over 50 yards per catch for those of you not good with math.  Jacob Hillyer has only 6 catches, but 2 of them went for touchdowns. Tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz has 8 catches for 77 yards and a touchdown. Running back Michael Malloy (illness) is questionable, but hasn’t played this season.

Michigan State is 3-0-1 ATS against teams with winning records and in road games, 6-1 on fieldturf, 4-1-1 after allowing 170 passing yards or less, 20-8-1 against teams with winning home records, 9-4 in October, 7-19 after passing for less than 170 yards, and 2-10 after gaining less than 275 total yards. The road team is 4-1 ATS in this series recently. Although the under is 4-1 overall in the last 5 in this series, four of the last five played in Iowa City have gone over the total.

Iowa is 4-1 ATS after a straight up win, and after rushing for more than 200 yards, 9-4 after allowing less than 275 total yards, 2-5 in Big Ten games and after allowing less than 175 passing yards, and 1-4 in October. The Hawkeyes have covered 6 of the last 7 against Michigan State and 5 of the last 6 at home against the Spartans.

Both of these teams are among the best defensive units in the country, especially the Spartans. Iowa has a much better offense though. Still I don’t see a lot of points being scored, especially with heavy thunderstorms predicted in the Iowa City area. Iowa wins a low scoring game with a late field goal.

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