#13 Nebraska Cornhuskers at Minnesota Golden Gophers
TCF Bank Stadium – Minneapolis, Minnesota
Saturday, October 22, 2011, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: ABC or ESPN2
Opening Line: Nebraska -23 1/2
Current Line: Nebraska -25
Opening Total: 55
Current Total: 57
Opening Money Line: Nebraska -2750 / Minnesota +1450
Current Money Line: Nebraska -3000 / Minnesota +1500
After an emotional come from behind victory two weeks ago at home against Ohio St 34-27, Nebraska needed a week off. Some people might say they have gotten two weeks off as they take on the lowly Minnesota Golden Gophers in Minneapolis this week. Nebraska is 5-1 under coach Bo Pelini and ranked #13 in the BCS standings. The only loss came at Wisconsin 48-17. The Cornhuskers have home wins over Chattanooga 40-7, Fresno St 42-29, Washington 51-38, and the Ohio St victory along with a road win at Wyoming 38-14. Minnesota is 1-5 under first year coach Jerry Kill, who missed several games due to seizures. The only win for the Gophers came at home to Miami-Ohio 29-23. Minnesota has road losses at USC 19-17, Michigan 58-0, and two weeks ago at Purdue 45-17, along with embarrassing home losses to New Mexico St 28-21 and North Dakota St 37-24. Nebraska and Minnesota will meet for the 52nd time Saturday but the schools haven’t played since 1990. Nebraska has won 14 straight in the series but Minnesota leads the series 28-21-2. Most of those Gopher wins came in the leather helmet era as they haven’t beaten Nebraska since 1960.
Two weeks ago Nebraska hosted Ohio St. The Buckeyes jumped out a 27-6 lead early in the third quarter, but Nebraska pulled off the largest comeback in school history with 28 unanswered points to win 34-27. The Huskers didn’t cover the 10 point college football betting line, but most Nebraska fans, players, and coaches will take the win and be happy about it. Nebraska had 423 yards including 232 rushing yards. Nebraska quarterback Taylor Martinez had 293 combined passing and rushing yards with 3 touchdowns (2 passing) and an interception. Running back Rex Burkhead had 26 carries, 119 yards, and a touchdown, along with 5 catches for 59 yards and a touchdown. Ohio St had 351 total yards including 241 rushing yards and 16 first downs. The Buckeyes were unable to overcome 9 penalties and 2 turnovers.
Nebraska is averaging 419 yards and 37 points a game. The Cornhuskers average 246.8 rushing yards a game, which is eleventh best in the country. Nebraska passes for 172.2 yards a game. Nebraska has 10 turnovers and have allowed 9 sacks. The Huskers are 38/88 on third and fourth down conversions and 26/29 scoring in the red zone with 19 touchdowns. Nebraska is allowing 372.7 yards and 27.2 points a game. The Cornhuskers are giving up 204.8 passing yards and 167.8 rushing yards a game. Nebraska has forced 9 sacks and 9 turnovers this season. Nebraska opponents are 45/100 on third and fourth down conversions, and 15/18 scoring in the red zone with 12 touchdowns. Nebraska has one special teams touchdown this season on a kick return.
Martinez is 70/129 passing with 1,014 yards, 6 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, along with 100 carries for 584 yards and 9 rushing touchdowns. Martinez and Burkhead are basically the whole offense. Burkhead has 107 carries for 635 yards, and 9 touchdowns, along with 8 catches for 68 yards and a touchdown . No Cornhusker receiver has more than 13 catches and 223 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jamal Turner and Quincy Enunwa are two of the top receivers. Kicker Brett Mahar is 27/27 on extra points and 11/13 on field goals with a long of 50. DT Jared Crick and OL Jake Cotton are both out for the season.
Minnesota traveled to Purdue 2 weeks ago and it was another long day for the Gophers. Purdue was up 45-3 near the end of the third quarter. Minnesota scored 2 late touchdowns, including a 92 yard kickoff return, to make the final 45-17. Purdue easily covered the 13.5 point spread. Minnesota had 213 total yards and just 11 first downs. Minnesota quarterback Marqueis Gray was 8/20 passing for 104 yards and an interception, but he did have a rushing touchdown. Minnesota had 6 penalties and 3 turnovers, including an interception returned 37 yards for a touchdown by Purdue in the first quarter. Purdue had 372 total yards including 217 rushing yards. The Boilermakers had 7 penalties but no turnovers.
As you might expect from a one win team, Minnesota has struggled on offense, averaging 300.3 yards and 18 points a game. The rushing game isn’t bad with 144.7 yards a game but isn’t spectacular either, but the passing game averages only 155.7 yards a game. The Gophers have 10 turnovers and have allowed 15 sacks this season. Minnesota is 31/89 on third and fourth down conversions, and 15/18 scoring in the red zone with 10 touchdowns. The Gophers are allowing 414.2 yards and 35 points a game. The pass defense is among the worst in the country allowing 247.7 yards a game. They give up 166.5 rushing yards a game. Minnesota has forced 4 turnovers and 5 sacks this season. Gopher opponents are 41/84 on third and fourth down conversions, and 22/26 scoring in the red zone with 18 touchdowns. Minnesota has 2 special teams touchdowns but they have given up four defensive touchdowns.
Gray is the leading passer and rusher for the Gophers. He is 47/97 passing with 625 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. He has 77 carries for 371 yards, and a rushing touchdown. Back-up Max Shortell is 26/53 passing for 309 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, and 11 carries for 14 yards. He started the Michigan game when Gray injured his ankle, but usually takes a few snaps a game. Running back Duane Bennett has 68 carries, 250 yards, and a touchdown along with 2 catches for 17 yards. Donnell Kirkwood has 38 carries, 155 yards, and 3 touchdown runs. Receiver Da’Jon McKnight has 23 catches, 316 yards, and a touchdown reception. Malcolm Moulton has 13 catches for 170 yards. Eric Lair and Marcus Jones get significant targets as well. Kicker Chris Hawthorne is 12/13 on extra points and 6/9 on field goals with a long of 47 yards. Offensive lineman Josh Campion is out for the season. Offensive linemen Jimmy Gjere (concussion) and Zach Mottla (ankle) are both questionable. Linebacker Brendan Beal is out indefinitely with a knee injury. Defensive backs Johnny Johnson (ankle) and Troy Stoudemire (arm) are both listed as doubtful for this game.
Minnesota is 2-4 against the spread this season and 4 of those 6 games have gone over the total. Nebraska is 1-5 ATS this season and 4 of the 6 games have gone over the total. The Cornhuskers are 10-2 ATS as a road favorite of 10.5 points or more, 5-2 as a road favorite, 2-5 after a game where they failed to cover, 2-6 following a straight up win, 3-12-1 as a favorite of 10.5 points or more, 1-5 as a favorite, and against teams with losing records, 1-6 overall, and 0-5 on turf. Minnesota is 4-10-1 in home games versus teams with winning road records, 3-8 at home, 1-4 following a loss of 20 points or more, and overall, and 0-5 in October games.
Look, we all know Minnesota is not very good this year, and by all rights should get destroyed by Nebraska. However, the Cornhuskers have covered one game this season in six tries, and that was against Wyoming and it took a late touchdown by Nebraska to cover the 20.5 point spread. Nebraska’s vaunted “black shirt” defense has struggled giving up more than 27 points a game. I like Minnesota to hang around and cover the huge 25 points spread.
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