Minnesota Golden Gophers at Illinois Fighting Illini
Assembly Hall – Champaign, Illinois
Tuesday, December 27, 2011, 7:30 pm Eastern, TV: Big Ten Network
Opening Line: Illinois -5
Current Line: Illinois -5 1/2
Opening Total: 127 1/2
Current Total: 125
Opening Money Line: Illinois -230 / Minnesota +190
Current Money Line: Illinois -240 / Minnesota +200
The 12-1 Minnesota Golden Gophers, coached by Tubby Smith open Big Ten play at the 11-2 Illinois Fighting Illini, coached by Bruce Weber. Minnesota’s only loss came to Dayton in the championship game of the old Spice Classic last month in Orlando. The Gophers have wins over DePaul, Indiana St, Virginia Tech, and USC this season.
Illinois started off the season 10-0 but has lost 2 of the last 3 to UNLV and Missouri who are both ranked in the top 25. The two losses dropped the Illini out of the top 25. Illinois has wins over Richmond, Maryland, Gonzaga, and Cornell. This is the 166th meeting between Illinois and Minnesota. Illinois leads the series 106-59 including 63-18 in Champaign. Illinois won the last meeting 71-62 last February in Minneapolis.
Minnesota is outscoring opponents 71-60 this season. The Golden Gophers are shooting 49.4% from the field, including 35.5% from 3 point range. Minnesota makes 69.3% of their free throws. The Gophers average 34.6 rebounds a game, and have a rebounding margin of +5.7. Minnesota averages 16 assists, 14.4 turnovers, 6 blocks and 9.2 steals a game. Minnesota opponents are shooting 40.7% from the field including 36.9% from 3 point range. Minnesota is forcing 14.8 turnovers a game.
Forward Trevor Mbakwe was the leading scorer and rebounder for Minnesota but he is gone for the season with a leg injury. Julian Welch is averaging 9.9 points, 1.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists to lead the team, and 1 steal a game. Rodney Williams averages 9.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.6 blocks a game. He leads the team in steals, rebounds, and blocks. Austin Hollins averages 8.7 points, 2 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1.2 steals a game. Ralph Sampson III averages 8.1 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 1.4 blocks a game. Andre Hollins averages 6.1 points, 1.4 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.1 steals a game. He is probable with an ankle injury. Forward Maurice Walker is out indefinitely with a knee injury.
Illinois is outscoring opponents 69-59 this season. The Illini are shooting 44.9% from the field, including 32% from 3 point range. Illinois makes 73.3% of their free throws. The Illini average 35.5 rebounds a game and have a rebounding margin of +5.2. Illinois averages 13.8 assists, 13.4 turnovers, 6 steals, and 4.9 blocks a game. Illini opponents are shooting 39% from the field, including 35.6% from 3 point range. Illinois forces 15.1 turnovers a game on defense.
Illinois guard D.J. Richardson averages 14.3 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 1.8 assists a game. He is shooting 41.4% from 3 point range and leads the team in scoring. Meyers Leonard averages 13.4 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks a game to lead the team in the latter two categories. Brandon Paul averages 11.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 1.2 steals a game. He leads the Illini in assists and steals. Sam Maniscalco averages 10.6 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 2.9 assists a game. Devin Langford is out indefinitely with a broken finger.
Illinois is 5-6 against the spread and the total is 5-6 as well this season. Minnesota is 5-4-1 ATS and the total is 4-5-1 this season. Illinois is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 against Minnesota including 9-3 at home. The last 6 games have gone under in the series. The Gophers are 5-2 ATS in road games after 3 or more straight home games, 6-13-2 overall, 5-12-1 after failing to cover, 9-24-1 in road games against teams with winning home records, 7-20-1 as a road underdog, 6-18-2 against teams with winning records, 1-8 in Tuesday games, 1-9-1 in Big Ten games, 0-3-1 in road games, 0-4-1 as an underdog, including 0-3-1 as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. The Illini are 5-1 ATS in Tuesday games, 4-1 at home against teams with winning road records, 5-2 as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less, 1-4 overall, 1-5 after a cover, 0-4 as a favorite, at home, and as a home favorite.
Minnesota has won 6 games in a row, but are kind of flying under the radar. The Gophers aren’t ranked in either poll or even receiving votes. Though they aren’t quite as potent without Mbakwe, Minnesota is still a dangerous team that can challenge the elite teams in the conference like Ohio St, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Illinois is also a very good team. The Illini have dominated Minnesota recently especially at home. That trend should continue tonight.
