Minnesota Golden Gophers at #16 Michigan Wolverines
Crisler Arena – Ann Arbor, Michigan
Sunday, January 1, 2012, 4:00 pm Eastern, TV: Big Ten Network
Opening Line: Michigan -6 1/2
Current Line: Michigan -6
Opening Total: 132 1/2
Current Total: 129 1/2
Opening Money Line: Michigan -300 / Minnesota +250
Current Money Line: Michigan -260 / Minnesota +220
The 12-2 Minnesota Golden Gophers ring in the New year in Ann Arbor as they take on the #16 11-2 Michigan Wolverines Sunday afternoon. Minnesota is coached by Tubby Smith, and lost their second game of the season Tuesday night at Illinois 81-72 in double overtime. The loss snapped a 6 game winning streak for the Gophers. The only other loss came to Dayton in the championship game of the Old Spice Classic in Orlando Thanksgiving weekend. Minnesota has wins over Depaul and Indiana St in the same tournament, Virginia Tech and USC.
The Michigan Wolverines are coached by John Beilein. Michigan has 2 losses to Duke in the semifinals of the Maui Invitational and at Virginia in the first game after returning to the mainland. Michigan has won 6 straight games since the Virginia loss. The Wolverines have wins over Memphis and UCLA in Maui, Iowa St, Oakland, Bradley and Penn St 71-53 Thursday night. Michigan leads the series against Minnesota 78-59. The two teams split the series last year with each winning on the other’s home court.
Minnesota is outscoring opponents 71-61 this season. The Golden Gophers are shooting 48.3% from the field, including 35% from 3 point range. Minnesota makes 70.4% of their free throws. The Gophers average 34.6 rebounds a game, and have a rebounding margin of +4.7. Minnesota averages 15.9 assists, 14.4 turnovers, 5.9 blocks and 9.1 steals a game. Minnesota opponents are shooting 41.2% from the field including 36.6% from 3 point range. Minnesota is forcing 15.3 turnovers a game.
Forward Trevor Mbakwe was the leading scorer and rebounder for Minnesota but he is gone for the season with a leg injury. Julian Welch is averaging 10.3 points, 1.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists to lead the team, and 1 steal a game. Rodney Williams averages 9.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.9 steals, and 1.6 blocks a game. He leads the team in steals, rebounds, and blocks. Ralph Sampson III averages 9.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.5 blocks a game. Austin Hollins averages 8.6 points, 2.1 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.3 steals a game. Andre Hollins averages 6.3 points, 1.3 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.1 steals a game. Forward Maurice Walker is out indefinitely with a knee injury.
Michigan is outscoring opponents 72-60 this season. The Wolverines are shooting 48.9% from the field, including 37% from 3 point range. Michigan makes 69.1% of their free throws. The Wolverines average 33.8 rebounds a game and has a rebounding margin of +2.8. Michigan averages 15.1 assists, 12.2 turnovers, 5 steals, and 2.9 blocks a game. Wolverine opponents are shooting 39.8% from the field, and 32.8% from 3 point range. Michigan forces 13.4 turnovers a game.
Michigan guard Tim Hardaway, Jr. averages 16.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 2.8 assists. He also has the shooting ability of his famous father, making 31.1% of his 3 point attempts. Trey Burke averages 13 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 5.2 assists a game to lead the team. He makes 34.4% of his three point attempts. Evan Smotrycz averages 11.5 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and 1.2 steals a game. He leads the Wolverines in rebounds and steals. He is shooting 57.1% from 3 point range. Zack Novak averages 9.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.8 assists, and shoots 40.9% from 3 point range. Forward Jon Horford leads the team in blocks with 1 game, but he is questionable with a foot injury.
Michigan is 6-4 against the spread and the total is 8-1-1 this season. Minnesota is 5-5-1 ATS and the total is also 5-5-1 this season. Michigan is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 against Minnesota. The last 6 games have gone over the total. The Golden Gophers are 6-14-2 ATS overall, 11-27-1 in road games, 3-8-1 after failing to cover, 9-25-1 in road games against teams with winning home records, 7-20-1 after a straight up loss, 8-23 in Sunday games, 5-15-1 in Big Ten games, and 5-19-2 against teams with winning records. The Wolverines are 5-0 ATS in Sunday games, 13-3 in Big Ten games, 20-6 overall, 13-4 after a cover, 16-5 at home, 21-7 against teams with winning records, and 13-5 against teams with winning records.
These two teams are very similar statistically. Minnesota is slightly better at rebounding but otherwise they have almost identical stats. Michigan’s home court advantage should be enough to pull out a close game. Of course, being New Year’s Day, the Michigan fans might be hungover from the night before or at home watching a rare meaningful Lions game in January.
