Connecticut Huskies at Pittsburgh Panthers
Heinz Field – Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Wednesday, October 26, 2011, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Pitt -9 1/2
Current Line: Pitt -10
Opening Total: 41
Current Total: 41
Opening Money Line: Pitt -375 / UConn +315
Current Money Line: Pitt -380 / UConn +330
Last year, these two teams tied for the Big East title. Though both teams are 3-4 this season, they are both 1-1 in conference. The Big East is wide open this year, with Cincinnati at 2-0, and six teams at 2-1 or 1-1 in conference. Though Connecticut won the tiebreaker last year and received the Big East BCS berth, they were expected to rebuild as they lost a lot of talent, and their coach Randy Edsall left for the Maryland job. UConn is coached by Paul Pasqualoni. Pittsburgh was expected to be one of the favorites to win the conference title under first year coach Todd Graham. UConn has home wins over Fordham 35-3 and South Florida 16-10 along with a road win at Buffalo 17-3. The Huskies have losses at Vanderbilt 24-21 and West Virginia 43-16, and home losses to Iowa St 24-20 and Western Michigan 38-31. Pitt has home wins over Buffalo 35-16, Maine 35-29, and South Florida 44-17. The Panthers have losses at Iowa 31-27 and Rutgers 34-10, along with home losses to Notre Dame 15-12 and Utah 26-14. UConn leads the series 4-3, but the Panthers have won 2 of 3 in Pittsburgh. The Huskies won last year in East Hartford 30-28.
Connecticut was a 7.5 point underdog on the college football betting line two weeks ago at home against South Florida. The Huskies were up 6-3 at halftime. South Florida scored in the third to go up 10-6. UConn scored the last 10 points of the game and took a 16-10 lead with 7 minutes to go on a 10 yard fumble return for a touchdown. That ended up being the final as the Huskies pulled off the upset. South Florida had more yards than UConn 339-253, but the Bulls were unable to overcome 9 penalties and 4 turnovers. The Huskies had 2 turnovers of their own. Running back Lyle McCombs had 32 carries for 130 yards, and 2 catches for 7 yards. Quarterback Johnny McEntee threw for only 103 yards, with no touchdowns or picks. He was sacked 7 times.
UConn is averaging 320.3 yards a game, including 200.6 passing yards and 119.7 rushing yards. The Huskies are scoring 22.3 points a game. UConn has 12 turnovers and has allowed 24 sacks. The Huskies are 33/109 on third and fourth down conversions, and 15/17 scoring in the red zone with 8 touchdowns. Connecticut is allowing 351.1 total yards a game including the 9th best rush defense in the country allowing 89 yards a game. The pass defense is among the worst in the country allowing 262.1 yards a game. The Huskies are allowing 20.7 points a game. UConn has forced 16 turnovers and 18 sacks. Husky opponents are 34/120 on third and fourth down conversions and 14/17 scoring in the red zone with 7 touchdowns. UConn has 4 defensive/special teams touchdowns this season.
McEntee is 99/189 passing for 1,209 yards, 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Back-up Scott McCummings takes a few snaps as well. He has completed 3 of his 6 passes, two for touchdowns, but is mostly used as a runner with 37 carries for 102 yards and a touchdown. McCombs has 175 carries, 705 yards, and 4 touchdowns along with 11 catches, 115 yards, and a touchdown catch. Back-up D.J. Shoemate is out for the season with a shoulder injury. He only had 8 carries before the injury, and will redshirt this year. Receiver Isiah Moore has 27 catches, 353 yards, and no touchdowns. Ryan Griffin has 20 catches, 323 yards and a touchdown. Kashif Moore has 21 catches, 293 yards, and 3 scores. Nick Williams has only 6 catches, but he has 166 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Kicker Dave Teggart is 16/16 on extra points, and 12/17 on field goals with a long of 53 yards. The Huskies have 4 defensive players listed as questionable or doubtful Wednesday night.
Like UConn, Pitt also struggled on offense in their last game out two weeks ago at home against Utah. The Panthers were 6 point favorites against the Utes. Pitt was up 14-3 at the end of the first quarter because of 2 special teams touchdowns, a kickoff return and a blocked punt. Unfortunately, Pitt didn’t score for the rest of the game and were beaten 26-14. Pitt was absolutely dreadful on offense against Utah. The Panthers had 120 total yards, 12 first downs, 8 penalties, and 3 turnovers. It is never a good sign when you have as many turnovers as third and fourth down conversions. Utah wasn’t exactly an offensive juggernaut either with 251 total yards, 19 first downs and 10 penalties.
Pitt has averaged 342.1 yards a game including 158.9 rushing yards and 183.3 passing yards this season. Pitt is scoring 25.3 points a game. The Panthers have allowed 33 sacks and have 14 turnovers so far this season. They are 39/110 on third and fourth downs this season and 22/24 scoring in the red zone with 17 touchdowns. On defense Pitt has allowed 370.6 yards, including 120.2 rushing yards and 249.9 passing yards a game. The Panthers are allowing 24 points a game. They have forced 7 turnovers and 21 sacks this season. Pittsburgh opponents are 47/128 on third and fourth down conversions, and 17/21 scoring in the red zone with 12 touchdowns. Pitt has 3 special teams touchdowns this season.
Pitt QB Tino Sunseri is 122/198 passing with 1,204 yards, 5 touchdowns and and 7 interceptions so far this season, along with 70 carries for 11 yards and a rushing touchdown. Back-up Trey Anderson has 3 interceptions in his 33 attempts, but is out indefinitely with a wrist injury. Running back Ray Graham has been the star of the offense so far with 162 carries for 939 yards and 9 touchdowns, along with 30 catches for 200 yards. Zach Brown has 29 carries for 99 yards, and 3 touchdowns along with 7 catches for 46 yards. Receiver Devin Street has 20 catches, 283 yards, and a touchdown. Mike Shanahan (no relation to the Redskins coach of the same name) has 22 catches for 254 yards and a touchdown. Hubie Graham has 18 catches for 197 yards, and two touchdowns. Cameron Saddler has 16 catches for 141 yards and 1 touchdown. Kicker Kevin Harper has made 17 of 18 extra points and has made 10 out of 14 field goals. He has a long of 47 yards. The already beleaguered line will be without Lucas Nix and Chris Jacobsen who are both out with knee injuries. Linebacker Dan Mason is also out indefinitely with a knee injury.
Pitt is 2-5 against the spread and the total is 3-4 in those games. The Huskies are 2-5 ATS and the total is also 2-5 this season. UConn has covered the last two games in the series against Pitt. UConn is 9-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, including 5-0 on the road, 9-0 against teams with losing records, 6-1 in conference games, 21-5 after scoring 20 points or less, 7-2 following a bye week, 19-7 in the last 26 as an underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points, 12-5 as an underdog, 13-6 following a cover, 3-7 in the last 10 road games, 2-5 as a road dog, 2-6 overall, and 1-5 on grass. The Panthers are 4-0 ATS following a double digit home loss, 6-1 following a straight up loss, 5-1-1 versus teams with losing records, 5-1 at home against teams with losing road records, 6-2-1 after scoring 20 points or less the previous game, 19-7-1 in October games, 13-5 in conference games, 2-5 overall, 1-4 as a home favorite, 1-4 following a bye week, and 0-4 as a favorite.
It is appropriate this game is being played the week before Halloween as both Pitt and UConn are Jekyll and Hyde teams, especially the Panthers. You honestly never know which team will show up. These two teams are a combined 4-11 ATS in the last 15 games overall. I think 10 points is too many, but I would avoid either side. I do like the total to go under 41 as both teams struggle to score and have decent defenses.
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