South Florida Bulls AT Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Jan 20th, 2011 at 7:00 PM EST
Opening Line: Rutgers -4.5
Current Line: Rutgers -4
Opening Total: 125
Current Total: 123.5
Opening Moneyline: Rutgers -170 / South Fla +150
Current Moneyline: Rutgers -180 / South Fla +150
Both teams enter tonight’s game with their struggles against Big East opponents. While Rutgers is 10-7 overall, they have won just 1 of 5 matchups in their conference and South Florida (7-12) is also a horrid 1-5 in the Big East. Both teams have slim chances of winning the conference, but tonight will prove to be an important game for seeding purposes in the Big East tournament in February.
South Florida, as you would expect from a team with a sub .500 record, also has a negative point differential of -1.4. They score 63.5 a game and give up 64.9. Rutgers has a +3.8 point differential, scoring 67.6 a game and giving up 63.8. Combining both teams’ averages gives us a total of 127.3, a tad higher than the opening total line set by college basketball oddsmakers, so a bet on the over may be a prudent one to make.
Some betting trends:
South Florida is 0-5 SU in their last 5 road games.
Rutgers is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games and 1-5 SU in their last 6 games. They are 1-4 ATS at home and 8-3 SU in their last 11 home games. They are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against South Florida and 1-4 SU in their last 5 against the Bulls. The total has also gone UNDER In 6 of their last 7 against South Florida.
Rutgers features a very balanced attack with all five starters scoring greater than 8 points a game but no ne scoring more than 13. They are led by 6’7″ senior forward Johnathan MItchell, who averages 12.5 points per game and 5.9 boards a game. He’s shooting 37.5% from three, having gone 24 of 64 so far on the year. Inconsistency has marred Mitchell. He’s scored 20 or more three times but has also had stinkers of 2, 6, 4, 5, so it seems that Rutgers’ leading scorer is more of a wildcard than a dependable scorer. It goes without saying that if he has a good night, Rutgers is in contention in games. They are 8-3 when he scores in double figures and 2-4 when he does not. So South Florida would be wise to key in on Mitchell and do their best to prevent him from getting off tonight.
South Florida’s attack is similar to Rutgers. They have all five starters scoring greater than 8 a game, but again no one scoring more than 13. They’re led by 6’10” junior center Augustus Gilchrist who averages 12.7 points per game and 6.6 boards, but remarkably blocks under 1 shot a game. He’s had two double doubles this year, but South Florida has lost both games. His best performance came in a loss to Louisville, where he scored 25 points and grabbed 10 boards. Rutgers has no one to match up with him size-wise, with their biggest player being only 6’8″ so tonight could be a big night for Gilchrist. If he can dominate the interior and change shots, South Florida could have a good chance at winning this and/or covering the spread.
