Connecticut Huskies at Syracuse Orange
Friday, October 18, 2012, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Carrier Dome – Syracuse, New York
Opening Line: Syracuse -4
Current Line: Syracuse -4
Opening Total: 44 1/2
Current Total: 43 1/2
Opening Money Line: Syracuse -190 / UConn +160
Current Money Line: Syracuse -175 / UConn +155

 

The Syracuse Orange host the Connecticut Huskies Friday night in a match-up of teams desperate for a win in the Big East. Syracuse is 1-1 in conference, and UConn is 0-2. It appears that Rutgers, Louisville, Cincinnati and maybe conference newcomer Temple are the cream of the crop in the Big East, as all are undefeated in conference play.

This is the 9th meeting between the Huskies and the Orange. UConn leads the series 6-2 and has won 5 straight, including 28-21 last year in East Hartford. The series could end with this game, as Syracuse moves to the ACC next season.

Connecticut is 3-4 this season under coach Paul Pasqualoni. Pasqualoni was the head coach at Syracuse from 1991-2004. The Huskies have wins at home over Massachusetts 37-0 and Buffalo 24-17, along with a 24-21 win at Maryland. UConn has home losses to North Carolina St 10-7 and last week against Temple 17-14 in overtime, along with road losses at Western Michigan 30-24 and Rutgers 19-3. The Huskies are 2-4-1 ATS and the total is 2-5 this season. UConn was a 4 point favorite against Temple and the total was 41.

UConn is averaging 320.6 yards per game on offense, including 220.4 passing yards and 100.1 rushing yards. The Huskies are 109th in total offense nationally and 115th in rushing. UConn is outscoring opponents 19-16.3 this season. They are #111 in scoring offense out of 124 teams. UConn is -7 in turnovers this season, having given up 16. The Huskies have allowed 20 sacks this season. UConn is 40/110 on third and fourth down conversions and 16/20 scoring in the red zone with 10 touchdowns. While the offense is inept at best for UConn, the Husky defense is one of the elite units in the country. The Huskies allow just 261 yards per game including 161.6 passing yards and 99.4 rushing yards. UConn is #6 in total defense, #8 against the pass, #13 in rush defense, and #16 in scoring defense. The Huskies have not allowed more than 30 points in any game. UConn has forced 21 sacks this season. Husky opponents are 38/123 on third and fourth down conversions and 10/10 scoring in the red zone with 7 touchdowns. UConn has 3 defensive/special teams touchdowns.

UConn quarterback Chandler Whitmer is 119/205 passing (58.0%) for 1,535 yards with 6 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He has been sacked 20 times this year. Pasqualoni has not indicated that he would bench Whitmer if he continues to struggle. He has last year’s starter Johnny McEntee on the roster and Scott McCummings who is a better runner than a passer. McCummings has 28 carries for 80 yards with 2 touchdowns. Running back Lyle McCombs is expected to play after he was arrested a couple weeks ago after a domestic dispute with his girlfriend. He has 134 carries, 484 yards with 4 touchdowns, along with 14 catches for 135 yards. Seven Husky receivers have at least 12 catches, but no one has more than 25. Geremy Davis has 25 catches, 370 yards and a touchdown. Michael Smith has 19 catches, 219 yards, and a touchdown. Ryan Griffin has 12 catches, 214 yards and 3 touchdowns. Nick Williams, Shakim Phillips, and John Delahunt will also get a lot of targets.

Syracuse is 2-4 this season under coach Doug Marrone. The Orange have home wins over Stony Brook 28-17 and Pittsburgh 14-13. Syracuse has losses at home to Northwestern 42-41, to USC 42-29 in New Jersey, and at Minnesota 17-10 and last week at Rutgers 23-15. The Orange are 1-4-1 ATS and the total is 2-3 this season. Syracuse was a 7 point underdog at Rutgers and the total was 50.

Syracuse is averaging 445.5 yards per game on offense, including 316 passing yards and 129.5 rushing yards. The Orange are #14 in passing nationally. Syracuse is being outscored 25.7-22.8 this season. The Orange are -10 in turnovers, as they have given up 15 turnovers this season. Syracuse is averaging 60 penalty yards per game and has allowed 11 sacks this season. The Orange are 47/103 on third and fourth down conversions and 17/24 scoring in the red zone with 13 touchdowns. On defense, Syracuse is allowing 335.3 yards per game, including 199.3 passing yards, and 136 rushing yards. The Orange are in the top 30 nationally in total and passing defense. Syracuse has forced 14 sacks this season. Orange opponents are 34/94 on third and fourth down conversions, and 15/19 scoring in the red zone with 12 touchdowns.

Syracuse quarterback Ryan Nassib has completed 162 of 250 passes (64.8%) for 1,908 yards with 11 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, along with 51 carries, 71 carries, and a rushing touchdown. He has taken every snap for the Orange this season, and has been sacked 11 times. Jerome Smith has 78 carries, 355 yards and no touchdowns, along with 7 catches for 80 yards. Prince-Tyson Gulley has 54 catches, 217 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 21 catches, 161 yards and a touchdown. Ashton Broyld has 20 carries, 96 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 7 catches for 53 yards. Adonis Ameen-Moore has only 7 carries, but has 2 rushing touchdowns. Receiver Marcus Sales has 37 catches, 545 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Jarrod West has 26 catches, 374 yards and a touchdown. Alec Lemon has 24 catches for 262 yards. Jeremiah Kobena and Christopher Clark each have two touchdown catches.

UConn is 5-1 ATS after allowing more than 200 yards rushing, 7-2 in road games against teams with losing home records, 22-7 after scoring less than 20 points, 21-8 after rushing for less than 100 yards, 38-17 after a straight up loss, 24-11 after failing to cover, 4-9-1 after passing for more than 280 yards, 1-4 in Big East games, 1-5 in October, and in road games, 1-6-1 after allowing less than 20 points, 0-3-1 against teams with losing records, 0-4 overall, and on fieldturf, and 0-5-1 after allowing less than 170 passing yards. The Huskies have covered the last 5 against the Orange.

Syracuse is 2-5-1 ATS at home against teams with losing road records, 2-5 after rushing for less than 100 yards, 5-15-1 overall, 1-4-1 in Friday games, in October, and at home, 1-5-1 after failing to cover, 1-5 after allowing less than 275 total yards and 170 passing yards, 1-6-1 after a straight up loss, 2-12 after passing for more than 280 yards, 0-6-1 in Big East games, 0-4 against teams with losing records, 0-6 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards, 0-5-1 after scoring less than 20 points, and 0-3-1 on fieldturf. The favorite is 7-1 ATS in this series recently and the home team is 6-2.

Most of these teams misfortunes this season are self-inflicted. Both teams are turning the ball over way too often, and last week both lost because of mistakes in the kicking game. UConn missed 4 field goals in the 3 point loss to Temple. Syracuse was trying to take a 10-7 lead in the third quarter against Rutgers when the Scarlet Knights blocked a field goal and ran it back 75 yards for a touchdown. I don’t think either of these teams will contend for the conference title, but both teams need a win to better their chances of going to a bowl. I see UConn pulling off a narrow upset on the road in a low scoring affair just because of their dominant defense.

Our college football handicappers are red hot this season. Don’t miss out on any more winners.