Texas Tech Red Raiders at Missouri Tigers
Faurot Field – Columbia, Missouri
Saturday, November 19, 2011, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: ABC or ESPN GP
Opening Line: Missouri -17
Current Line: Missouri -18
Opening Total: 68
Current Total: 67 1/2
Opening Money Line: Missouri -1050 / Texas Tech +675
Current Money Line: Missouri -1000 / Texas Tech +650
For a game between two 5-5 and teams that need a win to become bowl eligible, this game has a lot of subplots. First, Missouri coach Gary Pinkel was suspended for this game after getting arrested for DUI on Wednesday night. Secondly, the Tigers are playing their last home game as a member of the Big 12 as the Tigers will move to the SEC next year. Thirdly, can Texas Tech snap a three game losing streak where they have been outscored 159-33 after the Red Raiders upset Oklahoma 41-38 on the road?
These two teams are both very inconsistent. You never know which team will show up from game to game. Missouri has home wins over Miami-Ohio 17-6, Western Illinois 69-0, Iowa St 52-17, and last week against Texas 17-5, along with a road win over Texas A&M 38-31 in overtime. The Tigers have road losses to Arizona St 37-30 in overtime, Oklahoma 38-28, Kansas St 24-17, and Baylor 42-39, and at home to Oklahoma St 45-24. All five losses are to teams that are currently ranked in the top 25 or were ranked at the time. Missouri will be coached by defensive coordinator Dave Steckel during Pinkel’s one game suspension. Texas Tech is coached by Tommy Tuberville, and started off the season 4-0 but have since lost 5 of the last 6. Besides the Oklahoma win, the Red Raiders have home wins over Texas St 50-10, and Nevada 35-34, along with road wins over New Mexico 59-13, and Kansas 45-34. Texas Tech has home losses to Texas A&M 45-40, Kansas St 41-34, Iowa St 41-7, and last week against Oklahoma St 66-6, along with a road loss at Texas 52-20. Missouri leads the series 5-3 against Texas Tech including 3-0 in Columbia. Texas Tech upset Missouri last year in Lubbock 24-17.
Last week Texas Tech hosted #2 Oklahoma St. The Cowboys were 19 point favorites. They covered that in the first quarter as OSU jumped out to a 49-0 lead at halftime. Texas Tech only scored once on a fumble return for a touchdown as they were crushed 66-6. The Cowboys were dominant in every phase of the game and could have scored 100 points had they not called off the dogs in the second half. Oklahoma St had 637 total yards including 454 passing yards. There were 5 turnovers in the game (3 by Tech.) Texas Tech had 270 total yards and 16 first downs. Red Raider quarterback Seth Doege threw for 169 yards and an interception.
Texas Tech has one of the most potent offenses in the country averaging 474.6 total yards and 33.7 points a game. The Red Raiders are averaging 342.7 passing yards a game. Those numbers are all ranked in the top 30 nationally. Texas Tech rushes for 131.9 yards a game. The Red Raiders have 13 turnovers and have allowed 17 sacks. Texas Tech is 85/181 on third and fourth down conversions, and 41/45 scoring in the red zone with 34 touchdowns. Tech is allowing 472 yards including 242.8 rushing yards and 229.2 passing yards a game. Texas Tech is allowing 37.4 points a game. Texas Tech has forced 16 turnovers and 12 sacks. Red Raider opponents are 77/161 on third and fourth down conversions, and 41/49 scoring in the red zone, with 34 touchdowns. Texas Tech averages over 7 penalties for 61 yards a game. Texas Tech has one defensive/special teams touchdown but has allowed 3.
Doege is 319/472 passing with 3,329 yards, 24 touchdowns and 7 interceptions along with 49 carries for 45 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns. Running back Eric Stephens had 109 carries, 570 yards, and 8 touchdowns, along with 15 catches for 128 yards. He is out for the season with a torn ACL. DeAndre Washington has 71 carries, 325 yards, and 3 touchdowns along with 16 catches for 90 yards. Aaron Crawford has 67 carries, 257 yards, and a touchdown, along with 10 catches for 62 yards. Ronnie Daniels is suspended indefinitely, but he only had 9 carries and a touchdown run all season. Receiver Alex Torres has 51 catches, 616 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Eric Ward has 61 catches for 603 yards, and 9 scores. Darrin Moore has 32 catches, 409 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Cornelius Douglas and Jacoby Franks also get significant targets. Tramain Swindell and Jace Amaro each have 2 touchdown catches. Kicker Donnie Carona is 41/41 on extra points and 12/16 on field goals with a long of 49 yards. Texas Tech has 8 players listed as questionable or out including 4 defensive players.
Missouri was a 1 point favorite last week at home against then #16 Texas. Missouri was up 14-3 at halftime and went on to win 17-5. Missouri held Texas to 247 total yards including just 76 rushing yards. Texas had been averaging 246 rushing yards a game before the loss. Each team had a turnover and blocked a punt. Missouri’s blocked punt led to a second half field goal, and Texas scored a safety on theirs. Missouri had 338 total yards including 186 passing yards and 19 first downs. Tiger quarterback James Franklin took every snap and didn’t have any touchdowns or interceptions. He rushed for 33 yards and a touchdown though. Running back Kendial Lawrence had 18 carries, 106 yards and a touchdown, and a catch for 20 yards. The win was costly though as Missouri lost leading rusher Henry Josey to a torn ACL and he is out for the season.
Missouri is averaging 483.8 yards and 33.1 points a game. The Tigers are 11th in the nation in rushing with 235.6 yards a game. The Tigers also average 248.2 passing yards a game. Missouri has 14 turnovers and has allowed 15 sacks this season. The Tigers are 63/159 on third and fourth down conversions. The Tigers are 39/44 scoring in the red zone and have 28 touchdowns. Missouri is giving up 399.3 yards a game including 141.3 rushing yards and 258 passing yards. Missouri is allowing 24.5 points a game. The Tigers have forced 16 turnovers and 22 sacks this season. Tiger opponents are 70/171 on third and fourth down conversions, and 29/38 scoring in the red zone with 22 touchdowns. Missouri has one special teams touchdown this season on a punt return.
Franklin is 197/312 passing with 2,381 yards, 16 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, along with 162 carries, 642 yards, and 11 rushing touchdowns. Josey had 145 carries, 1,168 yards, and 9 touchdowns, along with 10 catches for 91 yards. He also returned kicks and punts for the Tigers and had over 1,400 all-purpose yards. Lawrence has 71 carries, 301 yards, and 3 touchdowns, and 6 catches for 39 yards. Jared Culver and De’Vion Moore should get most of the carries that went to Lawrence when he was Josey’s back-up. Five Tiger receivers have caught at least two touchdowns this season. T.J. Moe has 49 catches, 621 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Michael Egnew has 45 catches, 462 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Marcus Lucas has 18 catches, 293 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Wes Kemp has 23 catches, 250 yards, and 3 touchdowns. La’Damian Washington has only 16 catches, but has 3 touchdown catches. Kicker Grant Ressel is 30/30 on extra points and 9/16 on field goals with a long of 47 yards. He is listed as questionable with a hip injury and has missed the last 3 games. Punter Trey Barrow will handle the kicking duties if Ressel can’t go. He is 11/11 on extra points and 3/4 on field goals with a long of 30 yards. The Tigers have 7 players out for the season including 2 offensive linemen and 3 defensive players.
Missouri is 6-4 against the spread this season and the total is also 6-4. Texas Tech is 5-5 ATS and the total is 7-3 this season. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 in this series. Texas Tech is 2-5 ATS against Missouri. The Red Raiders are 10-3-1 ATS after failing to cover, 5-2-2 following a double digit loss at home, 45-20-1 after a straight up loss, 9-4-1 after scoring 20 points or less than 20 points, 1-4 in conference games, after a straight up loss of 20 points or more, overall, and as a road dog, and 0-4 on turf. The Tigers 4-1 ATS as a home favorite, and as a favorite of 10.5 points or more, 6-2 after allowing 20 points or less, 5-2 as a home favorite of 10.5 points or more, 7-3 at home, 7-15 following a cover, and 3-7 on turf.
Both of these teams struggle on defense, and have explosive offenses. I look for Texas Tech to break out of their scoring slump, and this could be a shootout with tons of points.
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Good article, thanks. Defenses grow gel and peak just like offenses. I wonder if Missouri’s defense is coming of age. There won’t be a significant change in rushing yardage from Missouri tomorrow. The mystery for me is even with Franklin’s sophomore arm, why don’t they complete more passes, everybody on the team can catch even imperfect balls. If Franklin figures this out, omg.. Tech shouldn’t be taken lightly, unfortunately for Tech this year they wont be taken lightly. It might be a little tougher for Missouri to win without Pinkel (law enforcement at it’s worst, the guy turned a corner a little too wide on a dark street, after drinking only two glasses of wine at dinner in front of witnesses and could not have been impaired) but this group of seniors is grateful to Pinkel for the past great seasons. They will bring their underclassmen on to the field so fired up that they could win the game with everyone wearing a mascot head.
Thanks for the comment, Jeff. I agree with you about how the loss of Josey won’t affect their rushing total. Lawrence is a great back in his own right, and of course Franklin is very athletic at well. You are also right about the Tigers having great receivers, especially Moe and Egnew.
I do have to disagree with you about Pinkel’s DUI arrest though. No, he probably wasn’t impaired after 2 glasses of wine, but it is irresponsible to get behind the wheel after even one sip of alcohol for anyone, let alone someone in a leadership position like Pinkel. I read the mistake will cost Pinkel around $400,000 in salary and incentives, but he is lucky the university and/or the board of regents didn’t fire him.