Missouri Tigers at #16 Texas A&M Aggies
Kyle Field – College Station, Texas
Saturday, October 29, 2011, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: FX
Opening Line: Texas A&M -12
Current Line: Texas A&M -11 (-115)
Opening Total: 61
Current Total: 62
Opening Money Line: TAMU -425 / Missouri +340
Current Money Line: TAMU -400 / Missouri +325
There is a very good chance this will be an SEC game in a year or two. However, both teams are currently in the Big 12. The 3-4 Missouri Tigers coached by Gary Pinkel travel to College Station to take on the 5-2 Texas A&M Aggies coached by Mike Sherman. Missouri is 1-3 in conference and Texas A&M is 3-1. The Tigers have wins over Miami-Ohio 17-6, Western Illinois 69-0, and Iowa St 52-17, all at home. Missouri has road losses at Arizona St 37-30 in overtime, Oklahoma 38-28, Kansas St 24-17, and last week at home to Oklahoma St 45-24. Oklahoma, Kansas St, and Oklahoma St are all ranked in the top 10 in the BCS standings, and Arizona St is in the top 25, so the schedule has been brutal so far. It doesn’t get any easier as the Tigers take on the #16 Texas A&M Aggies. The Aggies have losses at home to Oklahoma St 30-29 and in Arlington to Arkansas 42-38. In both games the Aggies had double digit halftime leads. Texas A&M has home wins over SMU 46-14, Idaho 37-7, and Baylor 55-28, along with road wins over Texas Tech 45-40 and last week at Iowa St 33-17. Texas A&M leads the series 7-4, but Missouri has won 4 of the last 5 against Texas A&M including 30-9 last year in College Station.
Missouri was a 6.5 point underdog at home last week to Oklahoma St. The Cowboys jumped out to a 14-3 lead in the first quarter. Missouri looked like they were going to be blown out by the high-powered OSU offense, but the Tigers weathered the storm and were only down 24-17 at halftime. The Cowboys pulled away in the second half to win 45-24. Missouri was unable to overcome 4 turnovers in the game. The Tigers had 463 total yards including 248 rushing yards. Tiger quarterback James Franklin threw for 184 yards, with a touchdown and 3 interceptions, and had 55 rushing yards with a touchdown. Running back Henry Josey leads the Big 12 in rushing. He had 25 carries for 138 yards in the OSU loss. Kendial Lawrence added a rushing touchdown. Receiver T.J. Moe had 6 catches for 103 yards and a touchdown. Oklahoma St had 533 total yards, with 338 passing yards and 195 rushing yards.
Missouri is averaging 491.4 yards and 33.9 points a game. The Tigers are 12th in the nation in rushing with 238.1 yards a game. The Tigers also average 253.3 passing yards a game. Missouri has 11 turnovers and has allowed 10 sacks this season. The Tigers are 42/108 on third and fourth down conversions. The Tigers are 27/31 scoring in the red zone but only have 19 touchdowns. Missouri is giving up 365.7 yards a game including 124.9 rushing yards and 240.9 passing yards. Missouri is allowing 23.9 points a game. The Tigers have forced 11 turnovers and 16 sacks this season. Tiger opponents are 42/114 on third and fourth down conversions, and 21/26 scoring in the red zone with 16 touchdowns. Missouri has one special teams touchdown this season on a punt return.
Franklin is 130/216 passing with 1,672 yards, 11 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, along with 109 carries, 445 yards, and 8 rushing touchdowns. Running back Henry Josey has 99 carries, 885 yards, and 6 touchdowns, along with 6 catches for 71 yards. Four Tiger receivers have caught at least two touchdown passes this season. T.J. Moe has 37 catches, 478 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Michael Egnew has 26 catches, 312 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Wes Kemp has 18 catches, 213 yards, and 3 touchdowns. La’Damian Washington has only 10 catches, but has two touchdown catches. Kicker Grant Ressel is 30/30 on extra points and 9/16 on field goals with a long of 47 yards. He is listed as questionable with an undisclosed injury. Punter Trey Barrow will handle the kicking duties if Ressel can’t go. The Tigers have 5 players out for the season including 2 offensive linemen and 2 linebackers.
Last week, Texas A&M traveled to Ames to take on the Iowa St Cyclones. Iowa St was actually up 7-3 at the end of the first quarter, but the Aggies scored 27 unanswered points to take control of the game 30-7. A&M ended up winning 33-17 but didn’t cover the 21.5 point college football betting line. The Aggies had to settle for field goals 4 times against the Cyclones. The game featured 15 combined penalties and both teams had a turnover. Texas A&M had 510 total yards including 247 rushing yards. Aggie quarterback Ryan Tannehill had 263 passing yards and 2 touchdowns with no interceptions. Running back Christine Michael had 18 carries for 142 yards and a touchdown. Cyrus Gray has 21 carries for 125 yards, plus 3 catches for 35 yards. Iowa St had 305 total yards in the loss and only 17 first downs.
Texas A&M is averaging 522.6 yards a game and 40.4 points. They have a balanced attack with 292.1 passing yards and 230.4 rushing yards a game. The Aggies rank in the top 20 in all of those categories. A&M has 10 turnovers and has allowed 6 sacks. The Aggies are 44/94 on third and fourth down conversions and 33/35 scoring in the red zone with 24 touchdowns. TAMU gives up 415.3 yards a game and 25.4 points a game. It is kind of a good news / bad news situation for the Aggies as they have the nation’s 5th best rush defense allowing only 79.9 yards a game. However, teams don’t have to run the ball as A&M has the nation’s worst pass defense allowing a generous 335.4 yards a game. The Aggies have forced 5 turnovers and 28 sacks this season. A&M opponents are 56/135 on third and fourth down conversions, and 23/27 scoring in the red zone with 16 touchdowns.The Aggies are averaging 7 penalties for 65 yards a game. A&M has one defensive touchdown this season.
Tannehill is 165/253 passing with 2,005 yards, 15 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, along with 34 carries, 215 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Michael has 111 carries, 707 yards, and 8 touchdowns, to go with 6 catches for 32 yards and a touchdown. Gray has 134 carries, 646 yards, and 7 touchdowns, along with 16 catches for 147 yards and a score. Receiver Ryan Swope has 44 catches, 659 yards and 6 scores. Jeff Fuller has 39 catches, 426 yards and 3 scores. Uzoma Nwachukwu has 29 catches, 401 yards, and a touchdown. Tight end Michael Lamothe has only 8 catches but has 2 touchdowns. Kicker Randy Bullock is 32/34 on extra points and 15/16 on field goals with a long of 47 yards. Four Aggie defensive players are questionable, doubtful or out with injuries.
Texas A&M is 2-5 against the spread this season and and the total is 4-3 in those games. Missouri is 4-3 ATS and the the total is 4-3 as well this season. Texas A&M is 7-0 ATS at home after playing a conference game, 6-0 at home after a conference win, 5-2 at home, 7-3 in conference games, 2-6 following a failure to cover, 1-4 after a straight up win, 1-5 as a favorite and overall. The Tigers are 5-1 ATS on grass, 20-6 after allowing 40 points or more in the previous game, 5-2 after failing to cover, after a straight up loss of 20 points or more, and as a road underdog of 10.5 points or more.
This could be a shootout as both teams struggle to stop the pass and have explosive offenses. The 6 combined losses for the two teams are to teams ranked in the top 25 in the BCS standings, and 5 of the 6 are to teams ranked in the top 10. Texas A&M needs to do better in the red zone than they did last week against Iowa St. I think Missouri can keep this close if they don’t turn the ball over.
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