West Virginia Mountaineers at Kansas State Wildcats
Bill Snyder Stadium – Manhattan, Kansas
Saturday, October 26, 2013, 3:45 pm Eastern, TV: Fox Sports 1
Opening Line: Kansas State -7 1/2
Current Line: Kansas State -11 1/2
Opening Total: 52 1/2
Current Total: 52 1/2
Opening Money Line: Kansas State -380 / West Virginia +310
Current Money Line: Kansas State -430 / West Virginia +340
The 3-4 West Virginia Mountaineers and 2-4 Kansas State Wildcats find themselves at or near the bottom of the Big 12 standings as they meet Saturday in Manhattan, Kansas. The Mountaineers are 1-3 in the Big 12 and the Wildcats are 0-3. Kansas State leads the series 2-1 and this is the first ever meeting between the schools in Kansas. The Wildcats won last year’s meeting 55-14 in Morgantown.
West Virginia is coached by Dana Holgorsen. The Mountaineers have home wins over William and Mary 24-17, Georgia State 41-7, and Oklahoma State 30-21, along with road losses at Oklahoma 16-7, Maryland 37-0 (in Baltimore), and at Baylor 73-42. Last week, West Virginia lost at home to Texas Tech 37-27. West Virginia is 2-5 ATS and the total is 2-5 this season. The Mountaineers were 4.5 point underdogs against Texas Tech and the total was 58.
Texas Tech quickly jumped out to a 13-0 lead against West Virginia. However, the Mountaineers would tie it up by halftime. West Virginia took leads of 20-13 and 27-16 in the third quarter, but the Red Raiders scored the last 21 points of the game to avoid the upset 37-27. The Mountaineers had 437 total yards including 254 passing and 183 rushing yards. Texas Tech had 573 total yards including 462 passing yards. The Red Raiders had 7 penalties for 80 yards and 2 turnovers, while the Mountaineers had 5 penalties for 50 yards and one turnover.
West Virginia is being outscored 30-24 this season. WVU is #91 nationally in scoring and #85 in points allowed, out of 125 teams. The Mountaineers are averaging 399.9 yards per game on offense, including 246.6 passing and 153.3 rushing yards. On defense, West Virginia is allowing 453.6 total yards per game, including 257.1 passing and 196.4 rushing yards. The Mountaineers are #96 or worse in all three categories nationally. West Virginia is +1 in turnovers with 17 takeaways and 16 giveaways. The Mountaineers are averaging 55 penalty yards per game, and opponents are averaging 63. WVU is 37/118 on third and fourth down conversions, and opponents are 50/116. West Virginia has allowed 14 sacks and forced 9 this season. The Mountaineers are 15/19 scoring in the red zone with 9 touchdowns, and opponents are 26/31 with 17 touchdowns. West Virginia has 3 defensive touchdowns and has allowed 1 this season.
West Virginia quarterback Paul Millard started the first two games but was largely ineffective. He was benched in favor of freshman Ford Childress for the next two games. He has completed 57.1% of his passes for 421 yards with 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He struggled against Maryland throwing for only 62 yards and 2 interceptions. Childress injured his pectoral muscle and is out indefinitely. Florida State transfer Clint Trickett has started the last three games including the upset over previously undefeated Oklahoma State. Trickett has thrown for 724 yards with 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Millard took a few snaps in the blowout loss at Baylor. Millard has thrown for 581 yards with 3 touchdowns and an interception.
Running back Charles Sims has 112 carries, 557 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 26 catches for 211 yards and a touchdown. Dreamius Smith has 73 carries, 371 yards and 4 touchdowns. Wendell Smallwood has 19 carries, 140 yards and a touchdown, along with 4 catches for 43 yards. Receiver Ronald Carswell has 17 catches, 348 yards and 2 touchdowns. Kevin White has 22 catches, 321 yards and 3 touchdowns. Daikiel Shorts has 28 catches, 296 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ivan McCartney has 8 catches, 120 yards and a touchdown. K.J. Myers, Devonte Mathis, and Mario Alford will also get significant catches. Six Mountaineer defensive players are listed on the injury report including 3 linebackers.
Kansas State is coached by Bill Snyder. The Wildcats have home wins over Louisiana-Lafayette 48-27 and Massachusetts 37-7. Kansas State has homes losses to North Dakota State 24-21 and two week ago against Baylor 35-25, along with road losses at Texas 31-21 and Oklahoma State 33-29. Kansas State is 3-3 ATS and the total is 2-4. The Wildcats were 17 point home underdogs to Baylor and the total was 73.
Baylor took a 21-10 lead at halftime against Kansas State. The Wildcats would score 15 straight points in the third to take a 25-21 lead. However, Kansas State went for 2 twice and failed both times. Baylor would score 14 points in the fourth to win 35-25. On the bright side, the Wildcats were the only team so far to hold Baylor under 69 points this season. The Bears had 446 total yards including 332 passing yards. Kansas State had 445 total yards including 327 rushing yards. Each team had one turnover.
Kansas State is outscoring teams 30-26 this season. The Wildcats are averaging 400.3 total yards per game including 216.2 passing and 184.2 rushing yards. On defense, K-State is allowing 382.8 yards per game, including 226 passing yards and 156.8 rushing yards. The Wildcats are -9 in turnovers with 15 giveaways. K-State is averaging 45 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 34. Kansas State is 41/84 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 47/106. The Wildcats have forced 11 sacks and allowed 12. Kansas St is 18/21 scoring in the red zone with 14 touchdowns and opponents are 19/22 with 12 touchdowns. The Wildcats have 3 defensive touchdowns and a kickoff return for a touchdown, and have allowed a kick return for a touchdown.
Quarterback Jake Waters has completed 62.3% of his passes for 1,036 yards with 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, along with 53 carries for 151 yards and 2 touchdowns. Back-up Daniel Sams takes a few snaps a game, but is more dangerous with his legs. He has 86 carries for 577 yards and 7 touchdowns, and has thrown for 261 yards with 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Running back John Hubert has 80 carries, 358 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 10 catches, 111 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Tyler Lockett has 31 catches, 475 yards and a touchdown. He is questionable with a hamstring injury. Curry Sexton has 21 catches for 189 yards. Tramaine Thompson has 13 catches, 185 yards and a touchdown, plus a kick return for a touchdown. Glenn Gronkowski (younger brother of Patriots’ tight end Rob) had 3 catches for 119 yards and 2 touchdowns.
West Virginia is 11-0 ATS against teams with losing home records, 4-1-1 against teams with losing records, 5-2 in Big 12 games, 2-5 in road games, 3-8-1 after allowing 280 passing yards or more, 1-4 overall, 1-5 in fieldturf, 0-4 in October, and 0-5 after a bye week.
Kansas State is 6-0 ATS after a straight up loss, 4-1 after a bye week, 20=6-1 in Big 12 games and in October, 21-9-1 overall, 18-8 on fieldturf, 13-6-1 after a cover, 36-17 against teams with losing road records, 2-5 after allowing 450 total yards or more, and 0-3-1 after passing for less than 170 yards.
Both of these teams struggle on offense sometimes, so I see a low scoring game. Both of these teams are desperate for a win, but I think Kansas State wins a close game at home.
